Independent Fearless Predictions - 2009

Independent Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game

2009 Ind. Fearless Predictions

Week 13 ... Nov. 28 Games

Army | Navy | Notre Dame 

Independent Fearless Predictions
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Game of the Week  


Notre Dame (6-5) at Stanford (7-4),8:00 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 28

Why to watch: Okay, rubberneckers, this could be your last opportunity to watch Charlie Weis squirm. The Notre Dame head coach has been in the eye of a national storm since his team lost to Navy on Nov. 7 to start a well-publicized three-game losing streak. Last Saturday, the Irish was beaten by Connecticut, the second straight year it lost to an average Big East opponent on Senior Day. Although the outcome of this game is unlikely to impact Weis’ future one way or the other, it still qualifies as a pretty dramatic event in the Golden Dome world. Yeah, Stanford took a Big Game detour on its way to the big time, but a visit from the Irish affords it another nationally-televised opportunity to show how far it’s progressed under Jim Harbaugh. The Cardinal can also use this weekend as a vehicle to enhance the exposure of RB Toby Gerhart, who’s up for a number of national awards.
Why Notre Dame might win: As long as Jimmy Clausen is eligible and upright, the Irish has a shot at snapping the losing streak and deflecting some attention away from its coach. Notre Dame is No. 6 nationally in passing offense, a concern for a Stanford secondary that’s allowed 11 touchdown passes in the last five games and ranks 97th in pass defense. There are too many weapons out on the perimeter, like future pros Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, for an average Cardinal defensive backfield to contain. After seeing Cal’s Shane Vereen gash Stanford for 193 yards and three scores, the Irish might want to give a few more carries to Armando Allen as well.
Why Stanford might win: Every time the Irish has faced a talented back this season, it’s wilted. Vince Murray at Navy, Dion Lewis at Pitt, and Andre Dixon and Jordan Todman, have all gone well over 100 yards on Notre Dame in the last three weeks. So, too, will Gerhart. Arguably the best back the Irish will try to stop this season, he’s a 235-pound horse, who’ll carry tacklers and bring opposing defenses to their knees. The Cardinal will be eager to showcase its cover boy to a chunk of the nation that’s yet to see No. 7 in action. If Notre Dame focuses too many resources to stopping him, it’ll open up the field for receivers Chris Owusu and Ryan Whalen to get behind a beatable last line of defense.
Who to watch: We’re going to learn a lot this week about Andrew Luck, the young Stanford quarterback coming off the worst game of his brief career. Does he bounce back or does the 10-of-30 performance and crushing pick down the stretch haunt him beyond the Cal game? As good as Gerhart is between the tackles, the Cardinal offense is markedly more dangerous when Luck is on his game and defenses have to respect the vertical game.
What will happen: For Stanford, this is huge. It’s a chance for the coach, the players, and the community to show off on a broad stage just how far it’s come over the past few years. It’s not about to fumble that opportunity. Gerhart will run wild on the Notre Dame defense, and possibly strike a pose if his teammates can goad him into it. Clausen will keep the situation competitive, but he’ll also absorb plenty of hits from a Cardinal defense that likes to force the action and create pressure.
CFN Prediction: Stanford 35 … Notre Dame 27 ... Line: Stanford -10
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 3.5
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Navy (8-3) at Hawaii (5-6), 10:30 EST, Saturday, November 28, ESPNU

Why to watch: It’s the final game of the weekend and it could be among the most entertaining. It’s the ultimate contrast in styles with Hawaii’s passing game looking to bomb away while Navy and its tremendous ground attack will try to keep the Warriors off the field. Hawaii needs this win to keep bowl hopes alive, needing to win this week and beat Wisconsin next week, but no matter what happens, this has been a successful season. Faced with off-the-field controversy and a slew of injuries on the field, Hawaii has been able to overcome everything, and a six-game losing streak, to beat the dregs of the WAC (Utah State, San Jose State, and New Mexico State) to turn things around. While they might not be good enough to win their final two games, the Warriors could end up with a home split if everything is working. Navy knows where it’s going having already accepted a bid to play in the Texas Bowl, but it’s shooting for a ten-win regular season with Army coming up to finish things up in a few weeks. With two more wins and a bowl win, Navy will win 11 games for the first time in school history.
Why Navy might win: It’s always simple when it comes to playing Navy: can you stop the run? Hawaii can’t. These aren’t the Warriors of previous years with a stout run defense that was overshadowed by the high-octane offense; this defense has been consistently mediocre. While it did a decent job against Nevada, at least better than almost anyone else has over the last two months, Louisiana Tech and Fresno State were able to run without a problem. Navy’s running game has been tremendous over the second half of the season, after a bit of a rocky start, and it shouldn’t have problems cranking out at least 250 yards. The Hawaii linebackers are athletic, but they won’t be to handle Navy’s attack inside or out.
Why Hawaii might win: It’s always simple when it comes to playing Hawaii: can you stop the pass? Navy’s overall pass defense numbers are fine, but it has struggled against the teams that can throw, like Notre Dame, SMU, and Pitt. With no pass rush whatsoever, except when it’s trying to get to Jimmy Clausen in the end zone, Navy isn’t going to apply the pressure needed to disrupt the good, but not great Hawaii passing attack. Unlike past years, Hawaii has a bit of a running game to rely on, too. No, it’s not going to try to pound the ball against a good Navy run defense, but the balance might be there more than the Midshipmen might like.
Who to watch: The Hawaii passing game all comes down to the ribs of Bryant Moniz. The starter if he’s healthy, he hasn’t been able to practice much and wasn’t able to go last week. Shane Austin was fine, throwing for 299 yards against San Jose State, but he didn’t throw any touchdown passes. Moniz will try to give it a go, but Austin will almost certainly see a little bit of time. Navy’s quarterback situation is more than secure; it’s thriving. Ricky Dobbs is being talked about as the best to ever run the option in Annapolis, and it has showed over the last two weeks running for 102 yards and a score against Notre Dame and 100 yards and five scores against Delaware. He has set the record for the most rushing touchdowns in a season by a quarterback with two games still to play.
What will happen: The running game will outplay the passing game, but it’ll be tight for a full sixty minutes. The Midshipmen will hold on to the ball for most of the fourth quarter to take control of the game.
CFN Prediction: Navy 27 … Hawaii 24 ... Line: Navy -8
Must See Rating: (Charlie Brown Thanksgiving 5 … The Twilight Saga: New Moon 1) … 2.5
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