MAC Fearless Predictions - 2009

MAC Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game

2009 MAC Championship

Ohio (9-3) vs. Central Michigan (10-2)

National Rankings
Ohio		CMU
99th	Total Offense	28th
51st	Total Defense	33rd
66th	Scoring Offense	14th
34th	Scoring Defense	16th
93rd	Rushing Offense	41st
75th	Run Defense	30th
73rd	Passing Offense	36th
36th	Passing Defense	48th
6th	Turnover Margin	31st

Position Ratings relative to each other
O	5 highest 1 lowest	CMU
3.5	Quarterbacks	5
2.5	RBs	3
3.5	Receivers	5
2.5	O Line	4
2.5	D Line	3
4.5	Linebackers	3
4.5	Secondary	3.5
5	Spec Teams	3.5
4	Coaching	4

8:00 EST, ESPN, Friday, December 4, ESPN2

By Pete Fiutak

It’ll either be a coronation or a vindication in what might be the most compelling MAC championship game yet.

There have been some stunners in previous seasons, with Buffalo forcing turnover after turnover in last year’s upset win over an unbeaten Ball State, and Akron got a last second scoring pass to break NIU’s heart in 2005, but this isn’t a David vs. Goliath matchup and it’s not a case of one of the league’s divisions having the second best team. These two teams deserve to be here and they’re the two best teams in the MAC, but Central Michigan is the story, and more specifically, its quarterback.

Last year’s 31-24 loss to Ball State kept Central Michigan out of the MAC title game, but that was a blip on the screen. Under the guidance of QB Dan LeFevour, the Chippewas are playing in their third title game in four years having beating Miami in 2007 and Ohio in 2006 by a combined score of 66-20. This year, the Chippewas haven’t had any problems in conference play with Buffalo providing the only test in a 20-13 game.

Unlike past CMU championship years when the team made things happen offensively to overcome a miserable defense, this year’s team is strong in all phases, was able to pull off a win over Michigan State in miracle fashion, and with a win can come up with the first 11-win season in school history. But Ohio won’t be a pushover.

Ever since being booted from Nebraska, Frank Solich has had some decent success at Ohio, taking the team to the 2006 MAC Championship but failing to get a winning season in either of the last two years. But he has done a phenomenal job this season with a team that’s not all that explosive, has average special teams, and has a good, but not great defense.

The Bobcats lost QB Boo Jackson early on, and clunked against Kent State, but they kept on winning and winning and winning with four victories this year by seven points or fewer. They showed that they really might be the league’s second best team, at least, by beating a Northern Illinois squad that needed the win to stay alive in the MAC West race before winning the MAC East title with a convincing 35-17 performance against Temple. There’s nothing pretty about Solich’s team, but it’s playing with confidence and it knows how to win.

But while Ohio might be good at coming up with wins when no one’s expecting much, if this isn’t going to be a close battle, this has blowout potential if the Central Michigan machine is rolling. The Chippewas have a tremendous arsenal of playmakers, the defense is first in the league in points allowed, and it has LeFevour, who can cement his place as the greatest MAC player of all-time.

Of course Randy Moss of Marshall and Ben Roethlisberger of Miami were more talented, and Kent State’s James Harrison has shown that MAC players can go on and be superstars at the next level on defense, too, but LeFevour has been special, and this is his final showcase in league play.

To put what he has done in perspective, CMU had two winning seasons, both 6-5, from 1995 to 2005 as CMU wasn’t even a blip on the national radar. While he had plenty of help around him, and a great head coach in Brian Kelly to launch the program into MAC stardom, LeFevour was the one who made things go leading the way to three straight Motor City Bowls, two MAC titles, and with a Tebow-like career of 2,885 rushing yards and 46 touchdowns, to go along with 99 scoring passes, 12,255 yards, and just 34 interceptions. Ohio might be the opponent, but it’s going to be playing second fiddle to the attention paid to No. 13.

Can the Bobcats be more than just the prop in Central Michigan’s show? It’ll be worth watching.

Players to Watch: While all the focus and all of the attention will be on LeFevour, and rightly so, CMU has other stars, too. LeFevour has been great, but junior WR Antonio Brown has had a major part of the success with a whopping 284 catches for 2,955 yards and 22 touchdowns in his three years. While he was always a consistent pass catcher and an elite return man, he didn’t always put up the big yards game-in-and-game out. That has changed this year over the second half of the season with four 100-yard games including two in the last three with 24 catches for 299 yards in back-to-back games against Toledo and Ball State. Ohio has one of the MAC’s top pass defenses, but it’ll have to focus the safeties on keeping LeFevour’s running in check. That’s when Brown will step up.

The big question for Ohio is the ankle of QB Theo Scott, the solid senior who stepped up his game when Boo Jackson was lost for the year and carried the team to the title game. When the Bobcats needed him most, he delivered with three touchdown passes against Northern Illinois and a 17-of-21, 324-yard, three touchdown, two rushing touchdown day against Temple to win the East. He has been able to keep the interceptions to a minimum and has been a far better decision maker as the season has gone on, but he has to get on the field. Freshman Tyler Tettleton finished the Temple game, and while he has good upside, Ohio is dead if he has to play significant minutes.

Defensively, the stars are at linebacker where CMU’s Nick Bellore earned first-team All-MAC honors for the second year in a row after making 112 tackles with three sacks, but Ohio has two tremendous playmakers in Lee Renfro on the outside and Noah Keller in the middle. Keller leads the team with 122 tackles and has been a machine over the last two weeks with 12 tackles against NIU and 13 stops against Temple, while Renfro was all over the place with 14 tackles against the Owls. These two will meet with LeFevour early and often, while it’ll be Bellore who should have at least 12 tackles against the Bobcat ground game.

Ohio will win if ... : It limits the CMU passing game to short-range throws. LeFevour will get his yards on the ground, but the Chip attack hums when all the parts are working. Ohio has to take away one part of the attack and hope for the best against the other. Boston College allowed LeFevour to complete 20-of-34 passes, but he only threw for 152 yards. Bowling Green got torn up on the ground, but LeFevour only threw for 147 yards. Ohio, even with the great linebacking corps, isn’t strong against the run, but it’s the secondary that has been the star of the D throughout the year with Thad Turner and Gerald Moore two nice playmakers to keep the CMU attack under wraps.

Offensively, the Bobcats have to take advantage of every and any opportunity. The running game isn’t anything special if Scott isn’t taking off, and the passing game is hit-or-miss. There aren’t going to be too many long drives on the swarming CMU defense, if any, and Ohio can’t settle for field goals, will have to take some chances, and will need takeaways from the defense to get short fields to play with.

Central Michigan will win if ... : It doesn’t turn the ball over. Ohio has lived off turnover margin this year. While the passing game has given away 12 picks, with ten from Scott, three came in one game, while two of the nine fumbles came early in a win over North Texas. The defense has been terrific coming up with the big play with 19 interceptions, including three last week against Temple, and 16 forced fumbles. Buffalo pulled off the shocker last year by forcing Ball State boo-boo after Ball State boo-boo, and Ohio could come up with the same magic this year by taking the ball away. CMU has been careful with the ball losing it a mere 13 times, and if LeFevour is careful, there shouldn’t be any problems. CMU can win by being -1 or even -2, but that’s it. -4 gives Ohio a shot.

Basically, CMU has to play its game and doesn’t have to get crazy to win. Ohio can’t win this game straight up and will need to connect on a few trick plays, will have to force turnovers, and will have to hope for a CMU meltdown. If LeFevour is LeFevour, it’ll be three titles in four years. Ohio can’t keep up if he and the offense are rolling.

What will happen: It’ll be the Dan LeFevour Variety Show. Ohio will come up with a few early scores to provide hope for a close battle, but LeFevour and the Chippewas are used to playing in big games, they’re used to playing in pressure situations, and they’re going to make a statement in the end of a terrific era of dominance.

CFN Prediction: Central Michigan 34 … Ohio 20 ... Line: Central Michigan -12
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