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CFN 2006 Program Analysis – No. 60-79

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2006


Three Year Program Analysis Teams 60 to 79  

2006 Program Rankings | 1 to 10 | 11 to 25 | 26-39 | 40-59 | 80-99 | 100-119
Conf. Team Rankings | Conf. Category Rankings | Attendance | Bad Losses
Conference Winning % | Total Wins | Draft | APR | Elite Wins |
Quality Wins   

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2

60. Colorado State

Score:
39.39
2005 Ranking:
56   2004 Ranking: 53   2003 Ranking:
28

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.91 7 4 15 7 0 0 5.45 39.36

Program Analysis: From 28th in 2003 to 60th this year, Sonny Lubick's program can't pull up out of its slide. The APR is nice and high and the Mountain West wins have been decent, but there need to be more overall wins. The 4-7 2004 season will still be around in the formula for another year.


61. Oklahoma State
Score:
39.22
2005 Ranking:
46  2004 Ranking: 61  2003 Ranking:
78

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.55 4 7 18 5 0 0 4.17 39.22

Program Analysis: The coaching change from Les Miles to Mike Gundy didn't go all that well last season, but it might have been a step backward to take a big leap ahead. Gundy had a young team in 2005, and should struggle this year meaning there should be a drop next season. The Big 12 wins will be hard to come by bringing down the Conference Winning Percentage Score.


62. Tulsa
Score:
37.96
2005 Ranking:
90   2004 Ranking: 104   2003 Ranking:
110

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.06 5 1 19 6 0 1 6.40 37.96

Program Analysis: Is there a hotter unknown head coach than Steve Kragthorpe? Last year's Golden Hurricane team wasn't expected to do much of anything, but it was rock solid on the way to winning the Conference USA title and the program's first bowl game since 1991. Winning seven of the final eight games last year certainly helped the monster jump.


63. Syracuse
Score:
37.95
2005 Ranking:
60  2004 Ranking: 51   2003 Ranking:
41

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.95 9 6 13 6 1 1 3.00 37.95

Program Analysis: The days of being among the elite are long gone, but last year's 1-10 disaster under head coach Greg Robinson was something Orange fans couldn't have envisioned. Part of the problem has been the attendance and part of the issue has been a lack of wins in Big East play. The APR Score is tremendous, but there need to be more NFL caliber players coming through SU. The Bad Loss came at Temple in 2004. The Elite Win came at Boston College the game after the stunner against the Owls.


64. Stanford
Score:
37.48
2005 Ranking:
74  2004 Ranking: 52   2003 Ranking: 54

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.15 10 13 13 2 0 1.5 3.33 37.48

Program Analysis: A perfect APR Score and a stunning number of drafted players helped make up for the lack of wins. With the 2-9 2002 season off the books, the overall ranking bounced back up and should keep rising as Walt Harris helps make Stanford even more competitive. The Bad Loss came in a stunner last year to UC Davis.


65. BYU
Score:
37.39
2005 Ranking:
72   2004 Ranking: 56   2003 Ranking:
45

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.94 5 6 14 4 0 0 5.45 37.39

Program Analysis: BYU has bounced around the rankings, but this should be the lowest it'll be for a while with head coach Bronco Mendenhall appearing to have things pointed in the right direction. Expect more and more wins over the next few years and a big jump in the Conference Winning Percentage Score and Quality Wins.


66. North Carolina
Score:
37.21
2005 Ranking:
77   2004 Ranking: 69   2003 Ranking:
47

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.04 7 6 12 6 0 0 4.17 37.21

Program Analysis: This isn't a bad showing by John Bunting's program considering the 2-10 2003 season is still in the mix. Next year the ranking should shoot up no matter how mediocre the 2006 campaign is. Half of the team's D-I wins were over Quality Opponents; that's life in the new ACC. For a low ranking, the Attendance, APR and Draft Scores are strong.


67. Nevada
Score:
37.15
2005 Ranking:
81   2004 Ranking: 79   2003 Ranking:
99

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
1.82 3 3 18 5 2 0 5.83 37.15

Program Analysis: Despite winning a piece of the WAC title and with a resurgence under head coach Chris Ault, the attendance remains low. Even with the problems with attendance, APR, and an average amount of wins, the Wolf Pack still moved up to its highest ranking yet. The Draft Score should go up in the next few years.


68. Hawaii
Score:
37.06
2005 Ranking:
52   2004 Ranking: 37  2003 Ranking:
57

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.64 2 6 21 3 0 1 5.42 37.06

Program Analysis: Helped by all the regular season game it gets to play, Hawaii has amassed more wins over the last three years than anyone ranked 54th or lower. The APR Score is lousy and the Attendance Score isn't fantastic, so there must be more wins after replacing a 10-4 2002 with a 5-7 2005. The Conference Winning Percentage Score could stand to be higher.   


69. Akron
Score:
35.65
2005 Ranking:
78   2004 Ranking: 87   2003 Ranking: 87

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
1.35 6 1 18 3 0 0 6.80 35.65

Program Analysis: Last year's MAC championship moved the Zips out of the bottom 50 helped immensely by the wins in conference play. The Attendance Score is a problem with a half full Rubber Bowl for most games. The APR Score is solid and the wins are starting to come more regularly under head coach J.D. Brookhart.


70. Air Force
Score:
33.87
2005 Ranking:
67  2004 Ranking: 66   2003 Ranking:
62

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.77 9 0 14 3 0 0 4.09 33.87

Program Analysis: There has always been a ceiling on how high Air Force can go because of the Attendance and Draft Scores, but the problems were usually offset by wins. Last year's 4-7 dip might signal the start of a slide with the rest of the Mountain West getting better and better. If the Conference Winning Percentage Score keeps dropping, then so will the Falcons.


71. Wake Forest
Score:
33.85
2005 Ranking:
66   2004 Ranking: 58  2003 Ranking: 69

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.93 9 4 12 6 0 1 2.92 33.85

Program Analysis: As you might expect, the APR is tremendous and the Conference Winning Percentage Score isn't. Wake Forest has been respectable under Jim Grobe considering the school size and the lack of big time talent the school is able to get and the tough conference it plays in. Interesting to note is the Quality Win Score; half of the team's D-I wins over the last three years came against good teams. The Bad Loss came at North Carolina in 2003.


72. Marshall
Score:
33.43
2005 Ranking:
39   2004 Ranking: 30   2003 Ranking:
19

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.68 3 5 16 3 0 0 6.25 33.43

Program Analysis: And here comes the crash. Marshall was hovering among the elite in the 2003 Program Rankings, and then started the slow slide that Herd fans hope stops here after the 11-2 MAC title winning 2002 campaign is gone off the books and replaced by last year's 4-7 Conference USA debut.  The Conference Winning Percentage Score is going to take a massive tumble unless 2007 is a success.


73. Louisiana Tech
Score:
32.97
2005 Ranking:
73   2004 Ranking: 74   2003 Ranking:
81

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
1.64 3 3 18 3 0 0 5.83 32.97

Program Analysis: Very quietly, Louisiana Tech has been a solid program under Jack Bicknell III. Playing well in WAC play has been a major plus, but the 18 wins over the last three years is the biggest key. Out of the bottom 64 teams, only Hawaii, with 21, has more victories over D-I teams than the Bulldogs. The APR Score needs to be higher to offset the lousy attendance.


74. South Florida
Score:
31.93
2005 Ranking:
65  2004 Ranking: 59   2003 Ranking:
79

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.21 4 4 13 6 0 1.5 5.22 31.93

Program Analysis: The move from Conference USA to the Big East was a good one finishing last year with the school's first bowl appearance and a few great wins over teams like Louisville and Rutgers. 2006 had better be a success or the overall ranking will drop with the strong 7-4 2003 season not counting next year,. The defense should be good enough to hope for another post-season game.


75. Iowa State
Score:
31.77
2005 Ranking:
71   2004 Ranking: 73   2003 Ranking:
51

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.43 6 2 13 4 0 0 3.33 31.77

Program Analysis: Doesn't this seem low for a team that came within an eyelash of playing in the last two Big 12 title games? Don't expect the Cyclones to last here long with the 2-10 2003 season (with only one win that year coming against a D-I team) finally getting erased off the books next year. The Conference Win Percentage Score will shoot up in a big way in the 2007 rankings.


76. UAB
Score:
31.61
2005 Ranking:
70   2004 Ranking: 76  2003 Ranking: 73

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.11 2 1 16 6 0 0 5.00 31.61

Program Analysis: Consistently average with seven straight seasons with five wins or more, UAB has been able to stay around the 70s. The Draft and Attendance Scores will always be an issue, but there's no reason for a lousy APR Score. As long as the Blazers avoid the Bad Losses (going 8-0 in Bad Loss situations over the last three years), the ranking won't dive too much.


77. Rutgers
Score:
31.55
2005 Ranking:
101  2004 Ranking: 107   2003 Ranking: 112

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.05 9 3 15 2 0 2.5 3.50 31.55

Program Analysis: Gone from the rankings is the 1-11 2002 season and in comes a 7-5 campaign and the program's first bowl appearance since 1978. Bad Losses to Illinois last year and at home to New Hampshire two seasons ago kept Greg Schiano's club from being in the 60s, but considering how bad things have been for so long, this isn't a bad jump. Note how strong the APR Score is.


78. Kansas
Score:
31.45
2005 Ranking:
88   2004 Ranking: 95   2003 Ranking:
98

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.12 2 2 15 6 0 0 3.33 31.45

Program Analysis: The team's best year since 1998 helped move KU up to its highest ranking yet. The Draft Score is way low for a program hoping to compete with the Big 12's elite, and the APR Score is horrendous considering the school isn't all that bad. As positive as things might be in Lawrence, there can't be a slide in 2006 or the ranking will drop with the 6-7 2003 season getting taken away.


79. Cincinnati
Score:
31.10
2005 Ranking:
59  2004 Ranking: 63   2003 Ranking: 56

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.18 5 6 14 4 0 1 3.91 31.10

Program Analysis: The team's worst season since 1999, coinciding with the move to the Big East, wasn't as bad as it might have appeared considering the program had to go through a massive rebuilding job. The Conference Wins Score will likely go down next year, but winning five games, to replace the four D-I victories in 2003, shouldn't be too much to ask for. Expect the slide to halt.