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CFN 2006 Program Analysis – No. 60-79
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CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2006
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Three Year Program
Analysis
Teams
60 to 79
|
2006
Program Rankings |
1 to 10
| 11 to 25
|
26-39 |
40-59
|
80-99 |
100-119
Conf. Team Rankings
|
Conf. Category Rankings |
Attendance
|
Bad Losses
Conference
Winning % |
Total Wins
|
Draft |
APR |
Elite Wins
|
Quality Wins
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last three years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score:
17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted
divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2
60. Colorado State
Score:
39.39
2005 Ranking: 56
2004 Ranking: 53
2003 Ranking:
28
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
2.91 |
7 |
4 |
15 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
5.45 |
39.36 |
Program Analysis:
From 28th in 2003 to 60th this year, Sonny
Lubick's program can't pull up out of its slide. The APR is nice and
high and the Mountain West wins have been decent, but there need to be
more overall wins. The 4-7 2004 season will still be around in the
formula for another year.
61. Oklahoma State
Score:
39.22
2005 Ranking: 46
2004 Ranking: 61
2003 Ranking:
78
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
4.55 |
4 |
7 |
18 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
4.17 |
39.22 |
Program Analysis:
The coaching change from Les Miles to Mike Gundy didn't go all that well
last season, but it might have been a step backward to take a big leap
ahead. Gundy had a young team in 2005, and should struggle this year
meaning there should be a drop next season. The Big 12 wins will be hard
to come by bringing down the Conference Winning Percentage Score.
62. Tulsa
Score:
37.96
2005 Ranking: 90
2004 Ranking: 104
2003 Ranking:
110
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
2.06 |
5 |
1 |
19 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
6.40 |
37.96 |
Program Analysis: Is
there a hotter unknown head coach than Steve Kragthorpe? Last year's
Golden Hurricane team wasn't expected to do much of anything, but it was
rock solid on the way to winning the Conference USA title and the
program's first bowl game since 1991. Winning seven of the final eight
games last year certainly helped the monster jump.
63. Syracuse
Score:
37.95
2005 Ranking: 60
2004 Ranking: 51
2003 Ranking:
41
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
3.95 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
3.00 |
37.95 |
Program Analysis:
The days of being among the elite are long gone, but last year's 1-10
disaster under head coach Greg Robinson was something Orange fans
couldn't have envisioned. Part of the problem has been the attendance
and part of the issue has been a lack of wins in Big East play. The APR
Score is tremendous, but there need to be more NFL caliber players
coming through SU. The Bad Loss came at Temple in 2004. The Elite Win
came at Boston College the game after the stunner against the Owls.
64. Stanford
Score:
37.48
2005 Ranking: 74 2004 Ranking: 52
2003 Ranking: 54
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
4.15 |
10 |
13 |
13 |
2 |
0 |
1.5 |
3.33 |
37.48 |
Program Analysis:
A perfect APR Score and a stunning number of drafted players
helped make up for the lack of wins. With the 2-9 2002 season off the
books, the overall ranking bounced back up and should keep rising as
Walt Harris helps make Stanford even more competitive. The Bad Loss came
in a stunner last year to UC Davis.
65. BYU
Score:
37.39
2005 Ranking: 72
2004 Ranking: 56
2003 Ranking:
45
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
5.94 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
5.45 |
37.39 |
Program Analysis: BYU
has bounced around the rankings, but this should be the lowest it'll be
for a while with head coach Bronco Mendenhall appearing to have things
pointed in the right direction. Expect more and more wins over the next
few years and a big jump in the Conference Winning Percentage Score and
Quality Wins.
66. North Carolina
Score:
37.21
2005 Ranking: 77
2004 Ranking: 69
2003 Ranking:
47
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
5.04 |
7 |
6 |
12 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
4.17 |
37.21 |
Program Analysis:
This isn't a bad showing by John Bunting's program considering the 2-10
2003 season is still in the mix. Next year the ranking should shoot up
no matter how mediocre the 2006 campaign is. Half of the team's D-I wins
were over Quality Opponents; that's life in
the new ACC. For a low ranking, the Attendance, APR and Draft Scores are
strong.
67. Nevada
Score:
37.15
2005 Ranking: 81
2004 Ranking: 79
2003 Ranking: 99
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
1.82 |
3 |
3 |
18 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
5.83 |
37.15 |
Program Analysis:
Despite winning a piece of the WAC title and with a resurgence under
head coach Chris Ault, the attendance remains low. Even with the
problems with attendance, APR, and an average amount of wins, the Wolf
Pack still moved up to its highest ranking yet. The Draft Score should
go up in the next few years.
68. Hawaii
Score:
37.06
2005 Ranking: 52
2004 Ranking: 37
2003 Ranking:
57
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
3.64 |
2 |
6 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
5.42 |
37.06 |
Program Analysis:
Helped by all the regular season game it gets to play, Hawaii has
amassed more wins over the last three years than anyone ranked 54th or
lower. The APR Score is lousy and the Attendance Score isn't fantastic,
so there must be more wins after replacing a 10-4 2002 with a 5-7 2005.
The Conference Winning Percentage Score could stand to be higher.
69. Akron
Score:
35.65
2005 Ranking: 78
2004 Ranking: 87
2003 Ranking: 87
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
1.35 |
6 |
1 |
18 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
6.80 |
35.65 |
Program Analysis:
Last year's MAC championship moved the Zips out of the bottom 50 helped
immensely by the wins in conference play. The Attendance Score is a
problem with a half full Rubber Bowl for most games. The APR Score is
solid and the wins are starting to come more regularly under head coach
J.D. Brookhart.
70. Air Force
Score:
33.87
2005 Ranking: 67
2004 Ranking: 66
2003 Ranking: 62
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
3.77 |
9 |
0 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
4.09 |
33.87 |
Program Analysis:
There has always been a ceiling on how high Air Force can go because of
the Attendance and Draft Scores, but the problems were usually offset by
wins. Last year's 4-7 dip might signal the start of a slide with the
rest of the Mountain West getting better and better. If the Conference
Winning Percentage Score keeps dropping, then so will the Falcons.
71. Wake Forest
Score:
33.85
2005 Ranking: 66
2004 Ranking: 58
2003 Ranking: 69
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
2.93 |
9 |
4 |
12 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
2.92 |
33.85 |
Program Analysis: As
you might expect, the APR is tremendous and the Conference Winning
Percentage Score isn't. Wake Forest has been respectable under Jim Grobe
considering the school size and the lack of big time talent the school
is able to get and the tough conference it plays in. Interesting to note
is the Quality Win Score; half of the team's D-I wins over the last
three years came against good teams. The Bad Loss came at North Carolina
in 2003.
72. Marshall
Score:
33.43
2005 Ranking: 39
2004 Ranking: 30
2003 Ranking: 19
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
2.68 |
3 |
5 |
16 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
6.25 |
33.43 |
Program Analysis:
And here comes the crash. Marshall was hovering among the elite in the
2003 Program Rankings, and then started the slow slide that Herd fans
hope stops here after the 11-2 MAC title winning 2002 campaign is gone
off the books and replaced by last year's 4-7 Conference USA debut.
The Conference Winning Percentage Score is going to take a massive
tumble unless 2007 is a success.
73. Louisiana Tech
Score:
32.97
2005 Ranking: 73
2004 Ranking: 74
2003 Ranking:
81
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
1.64 |
3 |
3 |
18 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
5.83 |
32.97 |
Program Analysis:
Very quietly, Louisiana Tech has been a solid program under Jack
Bicknell III. Playing well in WAC play has been a major plus, but the 18
wins over the last three years is the biggest key. Out of the bottom 64
teams, only Hawaii, with 21, has more victories over D-I teams than the
Bulldogs. The APR Score needs to be higher to offset the lousy
attendance.
74.
South Florida
Score:
31.93
2005 Ranking: 65
2004 Ranking: 59
2003 Ranking: 79
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
3.21 |
4 |
4 |
13 |
6 |
0 |
1.5 |
5.22 |
31.93 |
Program Analysis: The
move from Conference USA to the Big East was a good one finishing last
year with the school's first bowl appearance and a few great wins over
teams like Louisville and Rutgers. 2006 had better be a success or the
overall ranking will drop with the strong 7-4 2003 season not counting
next year,. The defense should be good enough to hope for another
post-season game.
75.
Iowa State
Score:
31.77
2005 Ranking: 71 2004 Ranking: 73
2003 Ranking:
51
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
4.43 |
6 |
2 |
13 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
3.33 |
31.77 |
Program Analysis:
Doesn't this seem low for a team that came within an eyelash of playing
in the last two Big 12 title games? Don't expect the Cyclones to last
here long with the 2-10 2003 season (with only one win that year coming
against a D-I team) finally getting erased off the books next year. The
Conference Win Percentage Score will shoot up in a big way in the 2007
rankings.
76.
UAB
Score:
31.61
2005 Ranking: 70
2004 Ranking: 76
2003 Ranking: 73
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
|
2.11 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
5.00 |
31.61 |
Program Analysis:
Consistently average with seven straight seasons with five wins or more, UAB has
been able to stay around the 70s. The Draft and Attendance Scores will
always be an issue, but there's no reason for a lousy APR Score. As long
as the Blazers avoid the Bad Losses (going 8-0 in Bad Loss situations
over the last three years), the ranking won't dive too much.
77.
Rutgers
Score:
31.55
2005 Ranking: 101
2004 Ranking: 107
2003 Ranking:
112
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
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3.05 |
9 |
3 |
15 |
2 |
0 |
2.5 |
3.50 |
31.55 |
Program Analysis:
Gone from the rankings is the 1-11 2002 season and in comes a 7-5
campaign and the program's first bowl appearance since 1978. Bad Losses
to Illinois last year and at home to New Hampshire two seasons ago kept
Greg Schiano's club from being in the 60s, but considering how bad
things have been for so long, this isn't a bad jump. Note how strong the
APR Score is.
78. Kansas
Score:
31.45
2005 Ranking: 88
2004 Ranking: 95
2003 Ranking: 98
|
Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
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4.12 |
2 |
2 |
15 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
3.33 |
31.45 |
Program Analysis: The
team's best year since 1998 helped move KU up to its highest ranking
yet. The Draft Score is way low for a program hoping to compete with the
Big 12's elite, and the APR Score is horrendous considering the school
isn't all that bad. As positive as things might be in Lawrence, there
can't be a slide in 2006 or the ranking will drop with the 6-7 2003
season getting taken away.
79. Cincinnati
Score:
31.10
2005 Ranking: 59
2004 Ranking: 63
2003 Ranking: 56
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Attendance Score |
APR Score |
Draft |
Wins |
Quality Wins |
Elite Wins |
Bad Losses |
Conf. |
TOTAL |
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2.18 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
3.91 |
31.10 |
Program Analysis:
The team's worst season since 1999, coinciding with the
move to the Big East, wasn't as bad as it might have appeared
considering the program had to go through a massive rebuilding job.
The Conference Wins Score will likely go down next year, but winning
five games, to replace the four D-I victories in 2003, shouldn't be
too much to ask for. Expect the slide to halt.
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