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CFN 2006 Program Analysis – No. 40-59

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2006


Three Year Program Analysis Teams 40 to 59  

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2

40. NC State

Score:
45.58
2005 Ranking:
37   2004 Ranking: 31   2003 Ranking: 35

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.41 6 8 17 8 1 0 4.17 45.58

Program Analysis: The drop wasn't as big as expected considering the 11-3 2002 season doesn't count in the mix anymore. The 17 wins are the lowest in the top 40, but the rest of the scores are just good enough to add up to a decent ranking. The Elite Win came at Virginia Tech in 2004.


41. Oregon
Score:
45.47
2005 Ranking:
53   2004 Ranking: 21  2003 Ranking:
15

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.81 2 9 22 6 0 1.5 6.67 45.47

Program Analysis: The 10-2 2005 season helped move the Ducks back in the right direction after a big fall last year. The players must be spending so much time modeling their lousy uniforms that they forgot to go to class. The APR Score needs work and there could stand to be more big wins. Six Quality Wins are way too low for a program as strong as this one. The Bad Loss came in the opening day shocker against Indiana in 2003.


42. Ole Miss
Score:
45.22
2005 Ranking:
45   2004 Ranking: 44   2003 Ranking: 43

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.64 9 8 16 6 0 0 4.58 45.22

Program Analysis: With the big 10-3 2003 season still on the books, Ole Miss has actually moved up despite winning seven games in the last two years. The APR Score saved the day, and the Draft Score wasn't all that bad. However, expect a huge drop next year if 2006 doesn't rock. The 16 wins are the lowest in the top 53.


43. Purdue
Score:
45.09
2005 Ranking:
34   2004 Ranking: 38   2003 Ranking:
31

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.17 3 11 21 4 0 0 5.42 45.09

Program Analysis: The program's first losing season since 1996 meant a drop out of the 30s, but things can quickly pick up with more Big Ten wins. The NFL players have come through West Lafayette, but they haven't been going to class enough with a low APR Score. Only one team ranked higher than the Boilermakers has as few Quality Wins.  


44. Northwestern
Score:
44.82
2005 Ranking:
69   2004 Ranking: 75   2003 Ranking:
63

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.99 9 4 19 6 0 0 5.83 44.82

Program Analysis: Randy Walker's legacy lives on as the program is in great shape after a strong three season run with two bowl appearances and 19 wins in the last three years. The conference winning percentage is surprisingly high and the APR Score, as expected, is fantastic. New head man Pat Fitzgerald has to find a way to crank out wins with a team undergoing several personnel changes. 


45. Northern Illinois
Score:
44.53
2005 Ranking:
51   2004 Ranking: 54   2003 Ranking:
64

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.43 2 1 23 8 1 0 7.60 44.53

Program Analysis: You'd think the Huskies would be higher after all the success over the last three seasons. The Conference Winning Percentage Score is fantastic and the overall wins are there, but the off-the-field scores are awful. The Attendance Score will always be mediocre and the Draft Score could use a boost. A better APR Score would bring the quickest change. 


46. Arkansas
Score:
43.77
2005 Ranking:
26   2004 Ranking: 18   2003 Ranking:
27

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.52 7 9 17 4 1 0 3.75 43.77

Program Analysis: Head coach Houston Nutt had better hope all the changes and the solid recruiting classes pay off quickly. After being in the top 20 two years ago, the Hogs tumbled quickly after two straight losing seasons. Another rough year might mean another big drop with the 9-4 2003 season out of the mix. Ole Miss is the only team in the top 53 with fewer D-I wins over the last three years. 


47. Missouri
Score:
43.71
2005 Ranking:
63   2004 Ranking: 72   2003 Ranking:
93

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.63 5 5 19 7 0 0 4.58 43.71

Program Analysis: The Tigers have been doing well under Gary Pinkel, but they can't seem to get over the hump and be a true player in the Big 12 title chase. The numbers are decent across the board, but nothing stands out. Call this ranking a microcosm of the program at the moment; everything's just slightly above-average.


48. Arizona State
Score:
43.52
2005 Ranking:
47   2004 Ranking: 67   2003 Ranking:
55

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.93 2 8 20 7 1 1 4.58 43.52

Program Analysis: Doesn't this seem sort of low for a program with all the fireworks that this one produces? The horrible APR Score hurts, and the Attendance Score could stand to be better. Sun Devil fans have been waiting for more wins from head coach Dirk Koetter, and they're starting to come. The Bad Loss came to Arizona in 2004. The Elite Win came over Iowa earlier that year.


49. Washington State
Score:
43.48
2005 Ranking:
23   2004 Ranking: 15   2003 Ranking:
39

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.31 6 8 18 6 2 0 4.17 43.48

Program Analysis: Two straight losing seasons has caused a nosedive after a stunning No. 15 ranking in 2004. Losing four games last year by three points and one by four didn't help. The Attendance Score is an issue and the 41.7 conference winning percentage since a strong 2003 is a problem. It's an easy solution for the Cougars; win and move up.    


50. Michigan State
Score:
43.47
2005 Ranking:
54   2004 Ranking: 47   2003 Ranking:
49

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
7.39 3 7 18 5 2 0 4.58 43.47

Program Analysis: John L. Smith's program hasn't been sharp over the last two years going 1-7 past November 30th to blow shots at going to a bowl game. The Attendance Score is there, the Draft Score and Quality Wins aren't all that bad, and now the team has to start winning more. The APR is lousy, but the Elite Wins over Notre Dame last year and at Minnesota in 2003.


51. Navy
Score:
43.40
2005 Ranking:
75   2004 Ranking: 101   2003 Ranking:
109

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.14 10 0 23 2 0 1.5 6.76 43.40

Program Analysis: From 109 in 2003 to being on the verge of the top 50 in three years, it's hard to argue with anyone who wants to put Paul Johnson among the nation's best head coaches. Navy won 26 games in the last three seasons after winning 27 in the previous seven, but only two of those wins came against teams that finished with a winning record. The APR Score certainly doesn't hurt things, but Navy can't get much higher with the low Attendance and Draft Scores always going to be a problem. The Bad Loss came at home against Delaware in 2003.


52. Minnesota
Score:
43.19
2005 Ranking:
55    2004 Ranking: 60   2003 Ranking:
65

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.69 4 3 23 6 0 1 5.00 43.19

Program Analysis: The ten-win 2003 season won't count in next year's rankings, so this needs to be a big season to prevent a drop. Considering the relative success under Glen Mason, this is a low ranking because of the low Draft and APR Scores. For a big-time Big Ten program in a major metropolitan city, the Attendance Score isn't strong. That should change with the new stadium coming in a few years. The Bad Loss came in a 30-21 clunker at Indiana in 2004.


53. Bowling Green
Score:
42.98
2005 Ranking:
50    2004 Ranking: 48   2003 Ranking:
72

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
1.78 4 2 23 5 1 0 7.20 42.98

Program Analysis: The 23 D-I wins are more than 22 higher ranked teams, but the low Draft and Attendance Scores keep the Falcons down among the average. The Conference Winning Percentage Score is fantastic and the overall wins are nice, but there's only so high the program can go if it doesn't get more in the other categories.


54. Texas A&M
Score:
42.85
2005 Ranking:
41   2004 Ranking: 50   2003 Ranking:
29

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
7.68 4 10 15 7 1 1 4.17 42.85

Program Analysis: R.C. Slocum was canned because the powers-that-be feared the program was sliding into mediocrity. 15 D-I wins in three years under Dennis Franchione isn't exactly what everyone had in mind. The Attendance Score is solid and the Draft Score is fantastic, but the program desperately needs wins. Expect them to come early on this year with a relatively soft opening nine games before dates with Oklahoma, Nebraska and at Texas.


55. New Mexico
Score:
42.56
2005 Ranking:
57   2004 Ranking: 68   2003 Ranking:
70

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.69 3 2 20 7 1.5 0 6.36 42.56

Program Analysis: New Mexico has been consistently average over the last few years, and it shows in the rankings. The low Attendance, Draft and APR Scores hurt, but the wins in Mountain West play help and the Quality Wins were a big boost to this year's score. The Elite Win cam in a 47-35 win at Utah in 2003.   


56. South Carolina
Score:
42.12
2005 Ranking:
58   2004 Ranking: 45   2003 Ranking:
37

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.04 3 9 18 4 0 0 4.58 42.12

Program Analysis: After years of average play under Lou Holtz, Steve Spurrier came in and led the program to it first bowl game since 2001 (although the team passes on a bid in 2004 because of the season-ending brawl with Clemson). The rabid Gamecock fans are always going to fill the house through thick and thin. Considering USC is one of the SEC's better academic institutions, the low APR Score is embarrassing. 


57. Kansas State
Score:
41.62
2005 Ranking:
32   2004 Ranking: 22  2003 Ranking:
11

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.72 4 7 17 6 2 0 4.40 41.62

Program Analysis: New head man Ron Prince has work to do to stop the major slide. After shocking the college football world in 2003 with a Big 12 title, KSU has won just eight D-I games in two years. The best win of the bunch was against Missouri in Bill Snyder's final game, but there hasn't been anything else of note. Considering the Wildcats aren't likely to be in for an average season, expect a huge fall next year when the 11-4 2003 season isn't in the formula.     


58. Oregon State
Score:
40.32
2005 Ranking:
42   2004 Ranking: 55   2003 Ranking:
50

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.82 3 10 18 6 1 1.5 5.00 40.32

Program Analysis: Oregon State has had its moments over the last five years, but maintaining a consistently high level in a tough league like the Pac 10 has been a problem. Stadium expansion will help the Attendance Score over the next few years, and the Draft Score is solid. The Bad Loss came at home last year against Arizona.


59. Connecticut
Score:
39.72
2005 Ranking:
64   2004 Ranking: 90   2003 Ranking:
101

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.88 9 2 19 3 0 0 3.85 39.72

Program Analysis: It's easy to forget that head coach Randy Edsall had to build the program from the ground up. UConn wasn't even in the big leagues until 2000, and then it took a little bit of time to get on solid ground. Now Edsall has things in place to start making some noise soon in the Big East. 19 D-I wins over the last three seasons is a great start. The high APR Score certainly doesn't hurt.