Advertisement


CFN 2006 Program Analysis – No. 11-25

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2006


Three Year Program Analysis Teams 11 to 25  

2006 Program Rankings | 1 to 10 | 26-39 | 40-59 | 60-79 |  80-99 | 100-119
Conf. Team Rankings | Conf. Category Rankings | Attendance | Bad Losses
Conference Winning % | Total Wins | Draft | APR | Elite Wins |
Quality Wins   

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2

11. Iowa

Score:
71.48
2005 Ranking:
7   2004 Ranking: 12   2003 Ranking: 36

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.89 8 15 26 13 3 0 7.08 71.48

Program Analysis: Iowa has established itself as a top program under head coach Kirk Ferentz, but last year was a dip finishing 7-5 after winning 31 games in three years and getting a No. 7 program ranking last year. The Draft Score has been great showing how the talent has flowed through Iowa City and the Conference Winning Percentage Score is excellent. While the team has little problem filling seats, the 70,585 seat Kinnick Stadium isn't big enough to compete with some of the top programs when it comes to the Attendance Score. The Elite Wins came against Miami University in 2003 (the team's only loss that year), LSU in the 2005 Capital One Bowl on a last-second miracle, and at Wisconsin last season.


12. Virginia Tech
Score:
69.51
2005 Ranking:
15   2004 Ranking: 20  2003 Ranking:
15

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.51 6 10 28 12 4.5 0 7.50 69.51

Program Analysis: The ranking went up even with the 10-4 2002 season getting wiped away from the formula. Life in the ACC has been good with a title in 2004 and an appearance in the championship game in 2005. The wins got Virginia Tech here, but it's going to be tough to maintain this high level with the Attendance Score always going to be average compared to some of the top programs. The Elite Wins came against Miami in 2003, at Miami in 2004, and at West Virginia and over Louisville in 2005.


13. Tennessee
Score:
69.04
2005 Ranking:
11   2004 Ranking: 5   2003 Ranking:
5

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
10.64 5 15 25 10 4.5 0 6.40 69.04

Program Analysis: The team has had so much success under Phil Fulmer that it could withstand a 5-6 season and not drop too far, but it needs to bounce back in a big way with the 10-3 2003 season not counting in next year's rankings. The Attendance Score is second only to Michigan and the Draft Score is fantastic, but the APR could stand to be higher and there needs to be more Quality Wins to get into the top ten. The Elite Wins came at Miami in 2003, at Georgia in 2004, and at LSU last year.


14. Florida
Score:
65.72
2005 Ranking:
17   2004 Ranking: 6   2003 Ranking:
4

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.97 9 16 23 9 2.5 1 6.25 65.72

Program Analysis: Things couldn't have been that bad under Ron Zook if the program remained in the top 20 overall. Sure, things aren't at the elite status they were a few years ago, but Urban Meyer is recruiting his tail off and appears to have the program about a year away from the old Steve Spurrier days. The wins are nice, but the Attendance, APR and Draft Scores are sensational. The Elite Wins came at Florida State in 2004 and at LSU (for the Tigers' only loss in a national championship season) in 2003. The Bad Loss was at Mississippi State in 2004.


15. Wisconsin
Score:
64.36
2005 Ranking:
16   2004 Ranking: 39  2003 Ranking: 20

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.11 4 14 26 11 2 0 6.25 64.36

Program Analysis: You might not automatically think of Wisconsin as an elite program, but it's in the top 15 helped by two straight excellent and slightly unappreciated seasons capped off by a Capital One Bowl win over Auburn. The Draft Score is among the best of the best and the Quality Wins are there, but the APR Score needs to be much higher for such a great academic institution. Along with the win over Auburn, the other Elite Win came over Ohio State in 2003.


16. Boise State
Score:
63.04
2005 Ranking:
13   2004 Ranking: 19   2003 Ranking:
30

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.96 7 1 31 11 1 0 9.58 63.04

Program Analysis: At the end of the day, winning is everything. With 31 D-I victories over the last three years, Boise State is one of six teams (USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia and LSU) to be past the 30 mark. The Attendance and Draft Scores will always keep the Broncos from being in the top ten, and it's asking the impossible to keep winning 96% of the WAC games, but the program will be ranked among the best of the best if new head man Chris Petersen can win conference titles like Dan Hawkins did.


17. Utah
Score:
62.96
2005 Ranking:
22   2004 Ranking: 49   2003 Ranking:
66

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.24 8 8 29 10 0 0 7.73 62.96

Program Analysis: After a 7-5 season, it'll be interesting to see if Kyle Whittingham can get the program back to the high level it was at under Urban Meyer after it won 22 games in two years. The overall win total is phenomenal and the APR Score is solid. With the ten-win season of 2003 going off the books next year, 2006 had better be a big season to avoid a big drop.


18. Louisville
Score:
59.77
2005 Ranking:
27   2004 Ranking: 43   2003 Ranking:
32

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.94 8 10 29 5 1 0 7.83 59.77

Program Analysis: John L. Smith got the ball rolling and Bobby Petrino ran with it. The last three years under Petrino have been amazing, and they should only get better as the Cardinals are a bona fide Big East powerhouse after moving over from Conference USA last year. The win total and APR Score are great, but the attendance has to go up. That might be a problem in the 42.000-seat Papa John's Stadium. The Quality Wins are the lowest of the top 33 teams ... it means Louisville hasn't played anyone. The Draft Score will be strong over the next several years. The Elite Win came over Boise State in the 2004 Liberty Bowl.


19. Notre Dame
Score:
57.64
2005 Ranking:
14   2004 Ranking: 14   2003 Ranking:
12

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.08 7 14 20 8 2 0 5.56 57.64

Program Analysis: As mediocre as the program might have been under Ty Willingham, it still ranked in the top 20 overall. Under Charlie Weis, this might be the lowest the ranking will be for a long time as the overall wins should go way up. The APR is solid, but not spectacular. The Attendance Score will always be a plus and the Draft Score will go nowhere but up. The Conference Winning Percentage Score is based on overall winning percentage since Notre Dame is an independent. The Elite Wins came over Navy and at Tennessee in 2004.


20. Miami University
Score:
57.45
2005 Ranking:
24   2004 Ranking: 28   2003 Ranking:
61

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
1.87 9 3 27 9 1 0 8.08 57.45

Program Analysis: On the field and off, Miami University has been special with 11 straight winning seasons and an APR Score that you might expect from the strong academic institution. Winning 80% of the MAC games over the last three years is a big plus, but the Attendance Score is always going to be a major problem. Expect a huge drop next year with the Ben Roethlisberger-led 13-1 2003 season doesn't count in the 2007 rankings.


21. Boston College
Score:
57.39
2005 Ranking:
28   2004 Ranking: 55  2003 Ranking:
19

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
4.17 10 5 25 9 1 0 5.71 57.39

Program Analysis: The model of consistency under Tom O'Brien, BC has won eight games or more in six of the last seven years. The overall score might not get much higher than this because of the low Attendance Score, but the APR is perfect and there are plenty of wins. Around the number 15 slot will be the ceiling unless there are more Quality Wins and more ACC victories. The Elite Win came at Connecticut in 2003.


22. Virginia
Score:
57.10
2005 Ranking:
18   2004 Ranking: 33   2003 Ranking: 33

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.10 8 10 23 10 0 0 5.00 57.10

Program Analysis: One of the interesting surprises over the last two years has been Al Groh's program. Hovering around the top 20 despite not having a truly monster season with a .500 mark in ACC play, the APR, Draft, and Quality Win Scores have been strong enough to overcome the slight problems. It's hard to argue with 32 wins in the last four years with three bowl wins and a should've-been bowl win against Fresno State in 2004.


23. TCU
Score:
56.73
2005 Ranking:
25    2004 Ranking: 27   2003 Ranking:
34

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.23 8 4 27 9 0 0 7.50 56.73

Program Analysis: The move to the Mountain West certainly didn't prove to be a problem. The Conference Winning Percentage Score went up after sweeping through the new league and the APR Score is fantastic. The ceiling for the program might be around here with the Attendance Score always going to be an issue, and the Draft Score might never make a big impact on the total.  


24. Clemson
Score:
56.69
2005 Ranking:
36    2004 Ranking: 25   2003 Ranking:
46

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
7.77 7 7 22 10 2 1 5.42 56.69

Program Analysis: Is it possible Clemson is one of the most underappreciated programs? With 22 D-I wins, an always solid Attendance Score and a good APR, Tommy Bowden has things rolling. The ACC winning percentage could stand to be better, but the Quality Win Score is impressive. The Elite Wins came at Miami in 2004 and over Tennessee in the 2004 Peach Bowl. The Bad Loss against Duke in 2004 will be on the books next year as well.


25. California
Score:
55.09
2005 Ranking:
20    2004 Ranking: 62   2003 Ranking:
74

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.42 7 10 25 6 1 0 6.67 56.09

Program Analysis: Even with the slight dip in the overall ranking, Cal still remains among the top teams with a top 25 ranking. The problem is with the Quality Wins with the six being the second lowest among the top 33 programs. The lack of Elite Wins also kept the Bears out of the top 20 going 0-5 against the best of the best over the last three years. 

























Unauthorized use of ad tag