CFN 2006 Program Analysis – No. 1-10

Three Year Program Analysis Teams 1 to 10

2006 Program Rankings | 11 to 25 | 26-39 | 40-59 | 60-79 |  80-99 | 100-119
Conf. Team Rankings | Conf. Category Rankings | Attendance | Bad Losses
Conference Winning % | Total Wins | Draft | APR | Elite Wins | Quality Wins   

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2

10. Florida State
Score: 74.89
2005 Ranking: 8    2004 Ranking: 9   2003 Ranking: 2
Program Analysis: While Bobby Bowden's program might not be among the nosebleed status of it was in 2003 when it was ranked second, being in the top ten is nothing to dismiss. Winning the ACC Championship last year was a better prize than many gave the Noles credit for; winning 76% of the games in an improved league is amazing. Not only does a slew of NFL talent flow through Tallahassee, but they also go to class.

Attendance Score: 8.29
2005: 82,724  2004: 82,841  2003: 83,149
APR Score: 9
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 12
2005: Miami, at Boston College, Virginia Tech (ACC Championship) 
2004: UAB, Clemson, Virginia, West Virginia (Gator Bowl) 
2003: Maryland, Georgia Tech, at Virginia, NC State, at Florida
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 20
2005: DT Travis Johnson, OT Alex Barron, DB Bryant McFadden, OT Ray Willis, WR Craphonso Thorpe, DB Jerome Carter, DE Chauncey Davis, QB Adrian McPherson, DE Eric Moore
2004: LB Michael Boulware, RB Greg Jones, DE Darnell Dockett, LB Kendyll Pope, WR P.K. Sam
2003: WR Anquan Boldin, DE Alonzo Jackson, G Montrae Holland, OT Brett Williams, OG Todd Williams, WR Talman Gardner
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.60
Elite Win Score: 2   2005: at Boston College, Virginia Tech 
Bad Losses: 0  

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9. Auburn
Score: 76.31
2005 Ranking: 12   2004 Ranking: 17   2003 Ranking: 17
Program Analysis: Where did that APR Score come from? It helped propel Auburn up into the top ten and confirm that this is one of the nation's powerhouse programs. While much was made about the 2005 draft with Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Carlos Rogers and Jason Campbell going in the first round, the Draft Score was the lowest of anyone in the top 15. Also interesting to note are the Elite Wins compared to the Quality Wins; Auburn's wins aren't cheap. Out of the eight losses in the last three years, six came against teams that could be classified as Elite.

Attendance Score: 8.41
2005: 84,161  2004: 83,085  2003: 85,203
APR Score: 10
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 27
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 11
2005: South Carolina, at Georgia, Alabama 
2004: LSU, at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl) 
2003: Tennessee, at Arkansas, Wisconsin (Music City Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: RB Ronnie Brown, RB Carnell Williams, DB Carlos Rogers, QB Jason Campbell, DE Jay Ratliff
2004: LB Karlos Dansby, LB Dontarrious Thomas, DE Reggie Torbor, WR Jeris McIntyre
2003: none
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 7   2005: at Georgia, Alabama  2004: at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)   
NOTE: Tennessee finished 2004 with three losses, but two of them were against Auburn. The ruling was to count each as an Elite Win.  
Bad Losses: 0  

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8. Michigan
Score: 76.51
2005 Ranking: 6   2004 Ranking: 8   2003 Ranking: 10
Program Analysis: Michigan fans want the program to come up with more big wins under head coach Lloyd Carr and be in the national title hunt, but being in the top eight isn't anything to blow off. Yeah, the Attendance Score will always keep the Wolverines high up, but the APR and Conference Winning Percentage Scores also helped. The program is half full: the 13 Quality Wins are more than all the teams ranked lower other than Iowa, who also checks in with 13. The program is half empty (for those who want more out of the program): the 13 Quality Wins are lower than everyone in the top seven.

Attendance Score: 11.1
2005: 110,915  2004: 111,025   2003: 110,918
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 13
2005: Northern Illinois, Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern
2004: Miami University, Iowa, Minnesota, at Purdue 
2003: Houston, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Michigan State, Ohio State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: WR Braylon Edwards, DB Marlin Jackson, C David Baas
2004: RB Chris Perry, DB Jeremy LeSueur, QB John Navarre, OG Tony Pape
2003: TE Ben Joppru, LB Victor Hobson, RB B.J. Askew, QB Drew Henson, DB Cato June, DB Charles Drake
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 4   2005: Penn State  2004: Iowa   2003: at Minnesota, Ohio State
Bad Losses: 0  

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7. Ohio State
Score: 78.58
2005 Ranking: 3   2004 Ranking: 2   2003 Ranking: 7
Program Analysis: As expected, the Buckeyes dropped a bit now that the 14-0 national title season of 2003 doesn't count in rankings. The Draft Score is tied with Miami as the nation's best and the Attendance Score is third behind Michigan and Tennessee. The APR could be better and the Elite Win Score is stunningly low going 1-5 against Elite teams.

Attendance Score: 10.49
2005: 105,017  2004: 104,876   2003: 104,870
APR Score: 5
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 15
2005: Miami University, Iowa, at Minnesota, Northwestern, at Michigan, Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
2004: Cincinnati, Michigan, Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl) 
2003: NC State, Bowling Green, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 22
2005: PK Mike Nugent, DB Dustin Fox, RB Maurice Clarett
2004: DE Will Smith, DB Chris Gamble, WR Michael Jenkins, TE Ben Hartsock, DT Tim Anderson, P D.J. Sander, DE Darrion Scott, C Alex Stepanovich, DB Will Allen, QB Craig Krenzel, WR Drew Carter, LB Robert Reynolds, OT Shane Olivea, OG Adrien Clarke
2003: DB Mike Doss, DE Kenny Peterson, LB Will Grant, LB Matt Wilhelm, DB Donnie Nickey
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.08
Elite Win Score: 1   2005: Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
Bad Losses: 0  

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6. Georgia
Score: 80.06
2005 Ranking: 4   2004 Ranking: 3  2003 Ranking: 6
Program Analysis: When you win 44 games in four years, your ranking will be fantastic. Everything is rock solid across the board with great Attendance and APR Scores, an excellent Draft Score, and a great conference winning percentage. It's a razor-thin margin between being a top five team and being on just on the outside, and the difference was the Quality Win and Elite Wins Scores. One more big win (like in the Sugar Bowl last year against West Virginia) and the Dawgs would've been fifth.

Attendance Score: 9.25
2005: 92,701  2004: 92,746  2003: 92,058
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 30
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 14
2005: Boise State, South Carolina, at Georgia Tech, LSU (SEC Championship)
2004: at South Carolina, LSU, Florida, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin (Outback Bowl)
2003: at Clemson, at Tennessee, Auburn, at Georgia Tech, Purdue (Capital One Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 17
2005: DB Thomas Davis, DE David Pollack, WR Reggie Brown, LB Odell Thurman, QB David Greene, WR Fred Gibson
2004: TE Ben Watson, DB Sean Jones, DE Robert Geathers, DB Bruce Thornton
2003: DT Johnathan Sullivan, OT George Foster, LB Boss Bailey, OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, RB Musa Smith, LB Tony Gilbert, RB J.T. Wall
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.31
Elite Win Score: 3   2005: LSU (SEC Championship)   2004: Wisconsin (Outback Bowl)   2003: at Tennessee
Bad Losses: 0  

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5. Miami
Score: 80.81
2005 Ranking: 5   2004 Ranking: 1   2003 Ranking: 1
Program Analysis: The number one program in 2003 and 2004 fell, but it's still in the top five despite failing to hit a double-digit win total over the last two seasons. An unreal Draft Score and massive win totals were enough to overcome the lack of fan support, but no more. It's going to be hard to stay in the top five when the Orange Bowl is full of 25,000 empty seats. The APR is impressive for a program that hasn't received much credit for its acadmics.

Attendance Score: 5.42
2005: 45,310  2004: 59,134   2003: 58,135
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 15
2005: at Clemson, Colorado, at Virginia Tech, Virginia
2004: Florida State, at Georgia Tech, Louisville, at Virginia, Florida (Peach Bowl) 
2003: Florida, at Boston College, West Virginia, at Florida State, at Pitt, Florida State (Orange Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 22
2005: DB Antrel Rolle, WR Roscoe Parrish, RB Frank Gore, TE Kevin Everett, OG Chris Myers
2004: DB Sean Taylor, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., LB Jonathan Vilma, LB D.J. Williams, OG Vernon Carey, DT Vince Wilfork, LB Darrell McClover, DB Alfonso Marshall, OT Carlos Joseph
2003: WR Andre Johnson, DE Jerome McDougle, RB Willis McGahee, DT William Joseph, DE Andrew Williams, DE Jamaal Green, DE Matthew Walters, QB Ken Dorsey
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.39
Elite Win Score: 5   2005: at Virginia Tech   2004: Louisville  2003: at Florida State, Florida State (Orange Bowl)
NOTE: Florida State finished 2004 with three losses, but two of them were against Miami. The ruling was to count each as an Elite Win.  
Bad Losses: 0  

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4. Oklahoma
Score: 81.25
2005 Ranking: 2   2004 Ranking: 4   2003 Ranking: 3
Program Analysis: The 8-4 2005 season means a slight drop, but not a huge one. The Conference Winning Percentage Score remains fantastic and the overall win total ranks third behind USC and Texas, but there must be more Elite Wins to get back up into the penthouse status. Draft Score used to be an issue for the Sooners, but not anymore with 11 players taken in 2005. 

Attendance Score: 8.40
2005: 84,331   2004: 84,532   2003: 83,202
APR Score: 5
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 32
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 16
2005: Tulsa, Kansas, at Nebraska, Oregon (Holiday Bowl)
2004: Bowling Green, Texas Tech, Texas, at Oklahoma State, at Texas A&M, Colorado (Big 12 Championship)
2003: North Texas, Fresno State, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 18
2005: OT Jammal Brown, WR Mark Clayton, DB Brodney Pool, WR Mark Bradley, DE Dan Cody, WR Brandon Jones, DB Antonio Perkins, DB Donte Nicholson, DB Michael Hawkins, LB Lance Mitchell, OG Wes Sims
2004: DT Tommie Harris, LB Teddy Lehman, DB Derrick Strait
2003: DB Andre Woolfolk, RB Quentin Griffin, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, TE Trent Smith
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.85
Elite Win Score: 2   2005: Oregon (Holiday Bowl)  2004: Texas  
Bad Losses: 0  

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3. LSU
Score: 81.70
2005 Ranking: 10   2004 Ranking: 7   2003 Ranking: 16
Program Analysis: Enjoy the elite of the elite top three ranking for one more year with the 13-1 national title season of 2003 not counting in next year's rankings. Of course, a huge 2005 will offset the loss, but it'll be hard to maintain this lofty status without a BCS-caliber campaign. The Elite Win Score is tied with USC for the best in the game and the other scores are excellent, but it's all about the wins. Only five teams won more than 30 games over the last three years, and the talent is there to keep the momentum rolling.

Attendance Score: 9.13
2005: 91,580   2004: 91,209   2003: 90,974
APR Score: 6
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 31
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 14
2005: at Arizona State, Florida, Auburn, at Alabama, Miami (Peach Bowl)
2004: Oregon State, at Florida, Troy
2003: Georgia, Auburn, at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Georgia (SEC Championship), Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 14
2005: DE Marcus Spears, DB Corey Webster, DB Travis Daniels
2004: WR Michael Clayton, WR Devery Henderson, DE Marquise Hill, OG Stephen Peterman, DT Chad Lavalais, P Donnie Jones, QB Matt Mauck
2003: RB Domanick Davis, LB Bradie James, RB LaBrandon Toefield, DB Norman Lejeune
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.08
Elite Win Score: 6.5   2005: at Alabama, Miami (Peach Bowl)  2003: Georgia, at Ole Miss, Georgia (SEC Championship), Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
NOTE: Georgia finished 2003 with three losses, but two of them were against LSU. The ruling was to count each as an Elite Win.  
Bad Losses: 0  

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2. Texas
Score: 85.53
2005 Ranking: 9   2004 Ranking: 11   2003 Ranking: 13
Program Analysis: Go 13-0 and win a national title; move up the rankings in a big way. Last year's tremendous season finally earned Mack Brown and the Longhorns a spot among the best programs in the nation with great all-around scores helped by winning 92% of the Big 12 games and coming up with the second-most wins of any program over the last three seasons. The 19 Quality Win Score didn't just lead the nation, it blew away everyone else with USC and Oklahoma second in the category with 16.

Attendance Score: 8.33
2005: 83,333   2004: 83,094   2003: 83,339
APR Score: 6
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 34
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 19
2005: UL Lafayette, at Ohio State, at Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas Tech, Kansas, Colorado (Big 12 Championship), USC (Rose Bowl)
2004: North Texas, at Texas Tech, at Colorado, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Michigan (Rose Bowl)
2003: Kansas State, Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 18
2005: RB Cedric Benson, LB Derrick Johnson, TE Bo Scaife
2004: WR Roy Williams, DT Marcus Tubbs, DB Nathan Vasher, WR Sloan Thomas
2003: DE Cory Redding, OG Derrick Dockery, QB Chris Simms, DB Roderick Babers
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.85
Elite Win Score: 3.5   2005: at Ohio State, USC (Rose Bowl)  2004: Michigan (Rose Bowl)  
Bad Losses: 0  

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1. USC
Score: 90.02
2005 Ranking: 1   2004 Ranking: 10   2003 Ranking: 24
Program Analysis: Shock of shocks, USC is number one for the second year in a row. What is a stunner is the margin beating Texas 4.49 points after finishing just 0.35 over number two Oklahoma in 2005. Going 37-2 over a three-year span certainly makes the rating high, and as expected, the fans have starting showing up more and more averaging close to 14,000 more fans per game than in 2003. The only possible knock is the average APR Score, but it's still not all that bad.

Attendance Score: 8.44
2005: 90,812   2004: 85,229   2003: 77,084
APR Score: 5
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 37
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 16
2005: at Oregon, at Arizona State, at Notre Dame, at California, Fresno State, UCLA
2004: Virginia Tech, California, Arizona State, at Oregon State, Oklahoma (Orange Bowl)
2003: at Auburn, Hawaii, Washington State, Oregon State, Michigan (Rose Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 15
2005: DT Manuel Wright (supplemental draft), WR Mike Williams, DT Mike Patterson, DT Shaun Cody, LB Lofa Tatupu, QB Matt Cassell
2004: DE Kenichi Udeze, OT Jacob Rogers, WR Keary Colbert, DB Will Poole
2003: QB Carson Palmer, DB Troy Polamalu, RB Justin Fargas, WR Kareem Kelly, RB Malaefou MacKenzie
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 9.58
Elite Win Score: 7   2005: at Oregon, at Notre Dame, UCLA  2004: California, Oklahoma (Orange Bowl)   2003: Michigan (Rose Bowl)   
Bad Losses: 0