Big Ten Fearless Predictions, Week One

The Big Ten kicks off with a few big games of national interest with Michigan and Chad Henne taking on Vanderbilt, Ohio State facing Northern Illinois, and Northwestern's emotional game at Miami University.

Big Ten
Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Michigan | Michigan State | Minnesota
Northwestern | Ohio State | Penn State | Purdue | Wisconsin

Big Ten Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Big Ten Game of the Week

Northern Illinois at Ohio State  3:30 pm EST ABC Saturday, September 2nd
Why to watch: These are considered the two best teams in their respective conferences and this should be more than just an exhibition for the Buckeyes. Ohio State is getting all the early love as the nation's number one ranked team in the big polls, and now it has to go out and prove it's a national championship caliber squad against a pesky Northern Illinois team that gave Michigan all it could handle in last year's opener. Yeah, the Wolverines won 33-17, but the outcome might have been far different had there not been a slew of unforced Huskie errors.. The Ohio State offense will get most of the attention, but NIU's diminutive star Garrett Wolfe might be the best back in the game and is worth the price of admission.
Why Northern Illinois might win: What's the difference between the big BCS schools and a program like Northern Illinois? Depth. NIU doesn't have the stable of players that Ohio State boasts, but its front-line guys are good enough to hang around for a full sixty minutes. The Huskie offensive line, particularly the tackles, have NFL talent and aren't going to get bowled over by the tough Buckeye line. If NIU can control the clock and control the game with Wolfe and the ground game along with an effective short passing attack, and if OSU's head is already in Austin for the big showdown next week, this might be close.
Why Ohio State might win: There are two big problems with the NIU defense as it matches up with the potent Ohio State offense. 1) There isn't nearly enough size to be more than just a speed bump against the fantastic Buckeye offensive line. 2) The speed in the back seven doesn't come close to matching the speed of the OSU receivers. The NIU secondary is experienced, but not special. Troy Smith and the Buckeye offense should be able to pick and choose how it wants to move the ball.
Who to watch: The eyes of Texas, and the rest of the college football world, will be on the brand new Ohio State defensive back seven. While the early word is that all the lost NFLers have been replaced by near-certain future NFLers, it's going to take a little while for everyone to come together like last year's killer unit. If the Buckeyes struggle at all with NIU's solid offense, then look for the panic alarms to start going off.
What will happen: There will be a few moments when NIU's offense makes some noise and throws a scare into the Buckeyes, but the OSU offensive line will be way too much for the Huskie D in the second half. The difference in speed and athleticism will be apparent by the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: Ohio State 38 ... Northern Illinois 16 ... Line: Ohio State -18
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3 
Final Score: 

Northwestern at Miami University  7:30 pm ESPNU August, 31 2006 
Why to Watch: It's game one in the Pat Fitzgerald era at Northwestern, and it just so happens to be against the late Randy Walker's alma mater. Obviously the main interest will be to see how the Wildcats play and how they try to go on with business as usual, but that'll be easier said then done. Miami is a good enough team to ruin the moment and come up with a big win for the MAC, while the Wildcats can go on a nice run with New Hampshire and Eastern Michigan to follow.
Why Northwestern Might Win: Taking the motivational factor out of the equation, the Wildcats should be able to pound their way to a win. The offensive line is among the best in the Big Ten, and the tandem of Tyrell Sutton and Terrell Jordan should have few problems blowing past the inexperienced RedHawk linebacking corps. The NU defensive front seven isn't anything special, but the secondary, led by corner Marquice Cole, should do a good job of closing down the MU passing attack.
Why Miami Might Win:  Northwestern's run defense was beyond abysmal last season, and now the line is going through a transitional phase and should have a hard time both against the RedHawk running game and in generating consistent pressure. The MU O line isn't huge, but it's good and should open up big holes time and again for the bevy of talented backs. Like MU, Northwestern is starting a brand new quarterback, only the decision on the starter, Mike Kafka, didn't come down until recently. Is he ready?
Who to Watch: Both teams are starting off the season with new quarterbacks. Northwestern redshirt freshman Mike Kafka has good size and nice all-around athleticism adding the best running option of all the young Wildcat quarterbacks. Miami loses Josh Betts and starts out with Mike Kokal, who serves as the number two man last year and is the best runner the team has had in years. Both will have to do the same things: hand the ball off, limit mistakes, and make a couple of key third downs either with their arms or their feet.
What Will Happen: It's always tacky to put a tragedy into the analysis of a football game, but there's no way, no how this Wildcat team is going to lose this one.
CFN Prediction: Northwestern 35 ... Miami 31 ... Line: Northwestern -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 2.5
Final Score:    

Minnesota at Kent State  7:30 pm EST August, 31 2006 
Why to watch: Minnesota goes on the road to try to keep Kent State on an ugly slide. The Golden Flashes lost nine straight at the end of last year and could desperately use a splashy win to get the Doug Martin coaching era back on track. If the team isn't night-and-day better than it was at the end of last year, this could be a brutally ugly exercise with the Gophers marching up and down the field. Minnesota needs to use this as a tune up for next week's road trip to California.
Why Minnesota might win: The Kent State defensive strength is in the secondary and not in the front seven. That's not a positive with the Minnesota ground game all but certain of rolling up 300 yards without breaking much of a sweat. The KSU offense will be a bit more balanced this year, but it'll still have to rely on its passing game to win. Minnesota's secondary isn't all that bad.
Why Kent State might win: There's not a Marion Barber or Laurence Maroney type of of runner in the Gopher backfield. The Golden Flash secondary has the potential to be the best in the MAC with solid corners Usama Young and Jack Williams good enough to hang with the Minnesota receivers. If the KSU defense can be merely adequate against the run, this might be interesting.
Who to watch: Will the Minnesota offense have to be more balanced or will it be business as usual? Is Amir Pinnix ready? The Minnesota junior running back ran for 206 yards against Michigan State last season and has the speed and quickness to shine here and there, but he's not big enough to be a workhorse. By far, Kent State had the nation's worst running game last year. Tony Jarvis and Eugene Jarvis have to show that things have changed.
What will happen: Kent State will be better, but it's still not going to have nearly enough on either side of the ball to stick around for more than a half.
CFN Prediction: Minnesota 41 ... Kent State 20 ... Line: Minnesota -16
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 2
Final Score: 

Idaho at Michigan State  12 pm  GamePlan September 2, 2006 
Why to Watch:  The Dennis Erickson era meets Drew Stanton’s senior season.  Idaho’s new, and former, head coach Dennis has returned to Moscow to try to rebuild his old team into a WAC power, and he couldn’t ask for a bigger test to open the season than going to East Lansing to face star MSU QB Stanton. Michigan State is coming off a disappointing season losing six of their last seven games, and could get off to a great start with Eastern Michigan coming up next week before going on the road to face Pitt. Anything less than a blowout over the Vandals would make John L. Smith’s seat even hotter.
Why Idaho Might Win:  Erickson’s teams have been potent offensively, no matter what team’s colors he’s wearing on the sideline (NFL teams excluded), so don’t expect anything other than a Vandal offense that will try to move vertically against the suspect State defense.  Idaho QB Steve Wichman has experience and his effectiveness at keeping the chains moving and avoiding mistakes will be key. 
Why Michigan State Might Win:  Stanton is one of the three most talented quarterbacks in the nation and is rated by some services as the nation’s top NFL quarterback prospect (ahead of Mr. Quinn). This year he has to continue to build off of the stellar, productive season that he had last season and is the type of talent who can win a game like this by himself.  RB Javon Ringer has speed and a dynamic running style that could be the perfect yin to Stanton’s yang to keep the Vandals off balance.  
Who to Watch:  MSU WR Matt Trannon has NFL talent, but he’s got to be Stanton’s go-to guy all season long.  The Vandals don’t have an answer for the 6-6 senior, but he’s got to play at an “I’m an NFL first rounder” level.  Idaho RB Jayson Bird is back this year after being injured in 2005 and is a power runner personified.  The misnomer about Erickson’s offense is that it’s throw, throw, throw, but running backs in this offense have also been features. Bird is the type of back that can ‘bruise’ a defensive front seven.
What Will Happen:  Idaho won’t see another player of the caliber of Stanton all season long and stopping him will prove to be as difficult as it appears on paper.  MSU has a tendency to flake out during the season, but not in the opener, especially at home.  Spartan head coach John L. Smith needs to get this team to a bowl game and he won’t do that if they don’t win this opening game.
CFN Prediction: Michigan State 54 ... Idaho 17 ... Line: Michigan State -29.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 2 
Final Score: 

Vanderbilt at Michigan  12 pm EST  ESPN  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to Watch:  It seems like years ago since Michigan tight end Tyler Ecker just missed getting in the end zone on an improbable kickoff return in the Alamo Bowl loss to Nebraska, and now head coach Lloyd Carr are on double secret probation needing a big year or else more major changes will be made. The Wolverines seem to be everyone's sleeper team in the BCS race with enough talent and experience to do some big things, but they have to prove they can be more consistent on both sides of the ball. Vanderbilt is in the first year after the Jay Cutler era and no one is expecting more than a lousy year. This is still a plucky team with most of the non-Cutler key pieces back, especially on defense. It'll be a monster upset if the Commodores pull off the win, but it should be more competitive than most Maize and Blue fans would like.
Why Vanderbilt Might Win: Call this a feeling out process for Michigan with new coordinators Mike DeBord and Ron English getting their feet wet. There's isn't one screaming Vandy weakness with a decent enough run defense to keep the slimmed down Wolverines from dominating on the ground. Consider the Michigan O line a big question mark early on. If it doesn't dominate, this might be close.
Why Michigan Might Win: Does Vanderbilt have enough big play playmakers to win a game like this in The Big House? Everything needs to go right for the upset, and that's asking an awful lot considering the Commodore quarterback situation is still up in the air. It's a three man race to replace Jay Cutler with sophomore Chris Nickson holding the slight edge. That's not a good thing when compared to Michigan veteran Chad Henne running a Michigan offense that has a healthy Mike Hart back. The Wolverines are 10-2 when Hart gets 20 carries or more.
Who to Watch:  The NFL scouts will be watching with key interest how Michigan senior corner Leon Hall handles Vandy's burgeoning star receiver Earl Bennett. Many though Bennett's breakout freshman season and unbelievable final four games (49 catches for 545 yards and nine touchdowns) was because Cutler was slinging it, but he's the real deal. If Hall is the best corner in the nation and a first round pro prospect, he keeps Bennett in check when matched up on him.
What Will Happen: Michigan will dominate. This isn't your button-down, corporate Michigan team that you're used to. This is a lean, mean, fighting machine that's looking to make an early statement.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 38 ... Vanderbilt 14 ... Line: Michigan -25.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 2.5
Final Score: 

Montana at Iowa  12:05 pm  ESPNU September 2, 2006 
Why to Watch: Montana is coming off a good 8-4 season and is expected to be one of the best in D-IAA and a threat for the national title. That doesn't mean too much to an Iowa team flat-out obliterates inferior teams in the home opener. Even so, this might not be the normal D-I pasting of a D-IAAer since the Grizzlies are better than about 25 D-I teams and the Hawkeyes will be trying out several new starters. This has to be the game Iowa tunes everything up before going to Syracuse next week and Iowa State on the 16th.
Why Montana Might Win:  The September 2nd Hawkeyes are far different than what the November Hawkeyes will be. The receiving corps and corners have talent, but little experience, while the linebacking corps needs to replace Abdul Hodge and Chad Greenway. Montana might be the sharper of the two teams and has enough transfers with D-I experience to make this interesting.
Why Iowa Might Win: How good is Iowa in its home opener? Over the last five years, the Hawkeyes have outscored their opponents 224 to 31 for an average score of roughly 44 to 6. The Hawkeye offensive line should dominate from the first drive getting speedy running back Albert Young in space way too often for Montana's liking. Expect at least one 50+-yard run from Young.
Who to Watch: Montana quarterback Josh Swogger has the potential to have a big day against the inexperienced Iowa secondary. The transfer from Washington State is big, experienced and just talented enough to make things interesting if he gets time to throw. Iowa's star defensive end Ken Iwebema is suspended for the game, so pressure will have to come from other spots.
What Will Happen: Montana will throw a few haymakers, but Iowa will be too fast and QB Drew Tate will be too sharp for this to be close into the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 49 ... Montana 14 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1.5 
Final Score: 

Big Ten Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2