Big East Week One Predictions, Part 2

Preview and predictions for the week one Big East games

Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers | South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Week One Fearless Predictions

McNeese State at South Florida  7 pm EST  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to watch: South Florida has traveled from nothing to a Big East contender in under a decade, and with 15 starters back, it’s expecting to make additional strides in 2006.  It won’t happen unless the Bulls can generate a consistent passing attack to complement a solid running game.  Can’t-miss QB Carlton Hill was supposed to pilot the offense, but academic and off-field issues have him headed to junior college to get his act together.  That leaves a redshirt freshman, Matt Grothe, and three-year veteran Pat Julmiste, who’s thrown more picks than touchdowns in his career, to provide some sort of stability to the passing game.  I-AA McNeese State has a veteran squad that returns 17 starters and is the pre-season favorite to win the Southland Conference.
Why McNeese State might win: Of all the concerns Cowboy coach Tommy Tate might have about week one, facing an offensive juggernaut is not one of them.  The South Florida attack was, at best, spotty last year, and the 107^th ranked passing game was a virtual no-show. Now the Bulls enter 2006 having to replace all-time leading rusher Andre Hall while coping with more uncertainty behind center.  McNeese’s Ivan Stephenson and Stephen Barrett are Big East-caliber defensive backs.
Why South Florida might win: Defense.  McNeese State was downright dreadful on offense in 2005, and they won’t get any confidence boosts in Tampa.  The Bulls are fast, physical and coming off a season in which they were ranked No. 17 defensively in the country.  Unless it comes on defense or special teams, the Cowboys won’t reach the end zone Saturday night.
Who to watch: USF’s Stephen Nicholas, Ben Moffitt and Patrick St. Louis combined for 265 tackles and 40 tackles for loss last year, and form the most underrated linebacking corps in America.  Follow these three tackling machines when McNeese is on offense, and you’ll never be far from the ball.
What will happen: South Florida has issues on offense that have to be addressed, but it won’t haunt them on this night.  The defense will lead the way, a phrase that’ll become very familiar by November. 
CFN Prediction: South Florida 34 ... McNeese State 3 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1
Final Score:    

Virginia at Pitt  7 pm EST ESPNU   Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to Watch:  In one of the better under-the-radar games of the first week, the ACC and Big East have a nice bragging rights battle between two teams looking for hot starts. Virginia could quickly erase a slightly disappointing 7-5 season with a win and a likely 3-0 record (with Wyoming and Western Michigan ahead) before starting ACC play, while Pitt looks to bounce back in Dave Wannstedt's second season at the helm with the Big East opener at Cincinnati next week. Each team will likely have to battle a little bit to get a bowl bid, so a game like this, even one this early, should go a long way. 
Why Virginia Might Win:  Has PItt's defense gotten appreciably faster and more athletic? No. Virginia has to replace several key offensive starters, but the line should be rock solid and the passing game will be a bit more explosive with Christian Olson at the helm. The Cavaliers have speed to burn in the backfield after starter Jason Snelling, so look for several big runs from the reserves as the game goes on. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will likely win, and with Tyler Palko still under center for Pitt, Virginia will probably win the turnover battle.
Why Pitt Might Win:  The goal of the Al Groh Virginia defense is to allow passers to dink and dunk all day long and to make sure the big play isn't there. Palko might have his issues, and he needs a good ground game to take off the pressure, but he has the talent and the ability to go on a run and pick apart defenses that give him the short to midrange passes. As long as he gets a little bit of time, he should have a huge day. He might not get that time because ...
Who to Watch:  ... Virginia DE Chris Long is on the verge of stardom. While not a pure pass rusher, the son of NFL great Howie Long has a non-stop motor and is an active player in the backfield. The Cavalier offense needs everyone to step up with the loss of top receiver Deyon Williams after suffering a broken foot. That means Fontel Mines has to be a reliable number one target. ... The Panther receiving situation is a bigger mess than Virginia's. With Greg Lee leaving early for the NFL and Joe DelSardo suspended, Derek Kinder goes from being a decent sidekick to a number one target. Redshirt freshman Oderick Turner isn't ready for primetime, but he'll have to play like a seasoned veteran.
What Will Happen:  It's not going to be the cleanest game around. There's too much offensive inexperience to expect anything pretty, but it should be a battle well into the fourth quarter. Pitt will seal it on a late big play.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 27 ... Virginia 23 ... Line: Pitt -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3
Final Score:    

Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati  7:30 pm EST  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to watch: Cincinnati broke in 16 new starters and used a ton of rookies in 2005, so it’s no surprise it won just four games and stumbled through a sloppy rebuilding year.  Well, all those freshmen are now sophomores and the sophomores are juniors, meaning the Bearcats will be a whole lot more competitive.  Cincinnati isn’t going to win the Big East, but the defense figures to be pretty stingy, and this is the same program that recently went to four bowl games in a five-year stretch from 2000-2004.  Eastern Kentucky is not your typical I-AA gimme.  The Colonels have gone a ridiculous 33 straight years without a losing record, and return the key cogs of a very potent offense.  QB Josh Greco is the reigning Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year, TE Patrick Bugg is a 6-5 All-American and Bobby Washington has transferred from NC State to join last year’s leading rusher Mark Dunn.   
Why Eastern Kentucky might win: The Colonels return the core of an offense that averaged 31 points a game in 2005.  Greco came into his own last fall hitting Bugg for 10 of his 25 touchdown passes., The one-time blue-chip recruit Washington could give EKU one of the best running games in the Ohio Valley.  Cincy averaged just 17 points a game last year, and if it falls behind, the smell of upset will consume Nippert Stadium.      
Why Cincinnati might win: It’s not even Labor Day  and there’s already a sense of urgency around the Queen City because the schedule, which includes trips to Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Louisville and West Virginia, is so wicked.  Lose to Eastern Kentucky, and forget about a bowl berth.  The Bearcats were a statistical mess a year ago but have a sizable size and speed edge over the Colonels, who amassed their numbers against far inferior competition.               
Who to watch: When Cincinnati has a big gainer this year, there’s a good chance unsung heroes Brent Celek or Doug Jones will be involved.  Celek is a sure-handed tight end with 11 career touchdown catches and a knack for bailing QB Dustin Grutza out of trouble.  Jones is a guard masquerading as a fullback.  Although he’s 280 pounds, he moves like some tight end, and is a tailback’s best friend.            
What will happen:  Eastern Kentucky has a short trip and knows how to win, which makes this opener a bit of a bear trap for the Bearcats.  They’ll survive with a physical and opportunistic defense that gives Grutza and Co. a short throughout the night.  
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 27 ... Eastern Kentucky 19 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1.5
Final Score:   

Kentucky at Louisville  8 pm EST ESPN  Sunday, September 3rd 
Why to watch: They still play in the same state and don’t like each other all that much, but with Louisville taking six of the last seven, this hasn’t been much of a rivalry of late and now the stakes are higher with the Cardinals considered a national title contender.  Thanks to Bobby Petrino’s offense and recruiting, the UL has become a perennial powerhouse program that finally appears ready to get over the hump and get into the BCS.  Ten months after tearing his ACL, Brian Brohm makes his return to the field, and as long as he and Michael Bush are upright, no one this side of Coral Gables will slow them down.  If Louisville stalls this fall, you’ll trace it to both lines, which must replace a ton of talent.  Kentucky and Rich Brooks face a must-win situation in 2006 needing to show some sign of life. The Cats haven’t bowled in seven years, but the schedule is conducive to six wins and the talent is deeper than last year.  RB Rafael Little would be a household name playing for any other SEC school.
Why Kentucky might win: Louisville has so much talent at the skill positions it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that both lines have been decimated by graduation.  Kentucky’s front seven is better than advertised and capable of forcing Brohm out of his comfort zone.  And if the Cards’ revamped D-line can’t get off its blocks, Little is the type of talent that can completely take over a game.          
Why Louisville might win: Louisville’s depth at receiver is no match for a Kentucky secondary that went from bad to worse when UK's top corner Bo Smith was sent packing.  The Cards have speed, size and experience, and if Brohm has time, he’ll carve up the Wildcat defense like a butcher. The Cats just decided on a starting quarterback going with Andre Woodson, who has experience, but isn't close to Brohm when it comes to controlling the game.
Who to watch: Last September, Elvis Dumervil schooled Kentucky for six sacks in a one-man parade around tackle.  There’s not another Elvis on the roster, but senior DE Zach Anderson is poised for a breakout final season and uber-recruit Deantwan Whitehead is expected to be an immediate factor. Woodson is mobile, but he's not fantastic under pressure. If he's not sharp in his decision making, he'll be on his back more of the evening.
What will happen: Don’t be surprised if there’s a layer or two of rust on Louisville.  This is Brohm’s first game back since the serious knee injury and there’ll be first-time starters on both sides of the ball.  Still, you can keep these Cardinals quiet for only so long, and a three-touchdown day from Bush will be the difference.  
CFN Prediction: Louisville 35 ... Kentucky 17 ... Line: Louisville -22.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3
Final Score: 

Big East Week One Fearless Predictions