Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Week One, Part 2

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions

Washington State at Auburn  7:45 pm EST ESPN2  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to watch: Auburn and Washington State meet for the first time in an intriguing out-of-conference match up. There are about a dozen programs with a legitimate shot for a national championship in 2006, and Auburn is one of them with a power running game behind Kenny Irons, a precise mid-range passing attack, and one of the fastest defenses in the country.  Their lack of beef on the defensive side of the ball could haunt them down the road, but not against a Wazzu team that relies more on finesse. SEC fans might bristle at this, but Auburn looks an awful lot like a (gasp!) Pac 10 team. That's not a bad thing. For Washington State, it’s a pivotal year for head coach Bill Doba after posting back-to-back sub-.500 seasons highlighted by a strange 2005 with several close losses. When it’s clicking, Alex Brink-to-Jason Hill is one of the most dangerous quick strike connections in college football.      
Why Washington State might win: The passing game remains the Cougar calling card, however, Doba believes his team will be able to run the ball on an Auburn defense that’s soft in the middle after losing T.J. Jackson and Wayne Dickens to graduation.  It will not be easy replacing RB Jerome Harrison, but Wazzu showed it could run block in 2005. Successor DeMaundray Woolridge is a 5-8, 230-pound fire hydrant who flattens defenders. It doesn't bode well for Tiger fans to play such a strong team early; Auburn has lost three of its last four openers.           
Why Auburn might win: A Washington State defense that allowed 37 points a game in conference play last year would love nothing more than to ease into the 2006 season with a building block game.  They won’t have that luxury.  The passing of Brandon Cox, combined with the Tigers’ endless supply of quality backs will be way too much for a Cougar D with twice as many questions as answers. The problem last year in the opener against Georgia Tech was a lack of experience in the offensive backfield. That's certainly not an issue now.      
Who to watch: Auburn CB David Irons, Kenny’s big brother, vs. Hill will be one the most riveting mini-showdowns of the entire weekend.  Irons has emerged as one of the SEC’s best cover corners and Hill begins 2006 as the premier senior NFL prospect at wide receiver.  Who wins this tussle will dictate how long Washington State can keep the game interesting.                
What will happen: Auburn still feels the sting of losing at home to Georgia Tech in last year’s opener as well as the Capital One Bowl to Wisconsin. Determined to justify their pre-season hype, the Tigers will be fully focused and will outslug the Cougars with the running game. However, look for Wazzu to throw a couple of haymakers to keep things tight. 
CFN Prediction: Auburn 34 ... Washington State 20 ... Line: Auburn -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3.5
Final Score: 

USC at Arkansas  8:45 pm EST ESPN  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to Watch: How much has Arkansas improved since last season's 70-17 Trojan pasting of the Hogs that saw 736 yards of total USC offense? The bigger national question is how far has USC fallen since losing all-time greats like Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White. This begins a brutal September for the Trojans with three road trips and a home date against Nebraska, but this is the game many think screams upset and will be a measuring stick for the national title contenders. Arkansas, with a strong defense and tremendous ground game, started to look better and better over the second half of last season and is looking at this as the chance to get on the national map. Things might not have gone well for Houston Nutt and his program over the last two seasons, but it lost four SEC games last year by a total of 13 points, lost a 22-20 thriller against Texas in 2004, and beat the Longhorns in Austin in 2003.
Why USC Might Win: Everyone knows about the personnel losses USC suffered in the offensive backfield, but the pollsters and most of the preseason prognosticators forgot about one thing: there's more to a football team than a quarterback and a running back. The receiving corps is the best in the nation, the second team linebacking corps would probably start for about 100 other teams, the defensive line will once again be a terror in opposing backfields, and there's speed and talent to burn at almost every spot. As improved as Arkansas might be, the passing game, even with more three-wide sets and an attempt at more balance under new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, isn't good enough to pull off the upset if the Trojans slow down the ground game. However ...
Why Arkansas Might Win: ... as good as the USC defense might be, this is still mostly the same group that got steamrolled over by Texas and Fresno State. The Hog line is loaded with experience and should be among the best in the SEC. It's a big, physical group that should be able to push around the USC defensive front four as the game goes on. The pressure is all on USC to keep the train going after an epic three-year run. If this is tight late, can the Trojans come through as clutch without Leinart and Bush? This is a nasty road game for new starters to deal with.
Who to Watch: Mr. Booty, you're table's ready. New starting quarterback John David Booty came to USC as a 17-year-old and was supposed to start right off the bat as the replacement for Carson Palmer. He got dinged up, Leinart got the gig, and the rest is history. Booty has been around long enough to know the offense and be ready to hit the ground running, but there's no grace period on expectations with the NFL receiving corps he has to throw to and with likely NFL first day draft pick Mark Sanchez waiting in the wings. (By the way, Leinart won his first game as a starter in an even tougher road trip beating an Auburn 23-0 at Auburn.) At running back, Chauncey Washington and his injured hamstring will give it a go, but freshmen C.J. Gable, Emmanuel Moody, Allen Bradford and Stafon Johnson will rotate in.
What Will Happen:  The Arkansas ground game is strong enough to keep this from being another 70-17 disaster, but USC is still among the elite of the elite teams with too much speed and talent on both sides of the ball for the Hogs. The Trojans have something else they didn't have last year; a chip on their shoulder. Expect a focused team that coldly and efficiently takes care of business.
CFN Prediction: USC 27 ... Arkansas 13 ... Line: USC -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 4.5
Final Score: 

BYU at Arizona  10:15 pm  September 2, 2006  TBS
Why to watch: Both of these programs are expected to come up with breakthrough seasons in 2006, and a quality win here would be an ideal launching pad while a loss might mean a major setback.  The headliners will be behind center with BYU’s John Beck and Arizona’s Willie Tuitama among the college football’s brightest quarterback stars.  Beck is a fringe Heisman contender coming off a 27-touchdown season and Tuitama is the unrivaled pilot of Arizona’s journey back to respectability. Wildcat head coach Mike Stoops has rapidly raised the talent level and expectations in Tucson, and now the team has to prove it can consistently win.  This is particularly evident on defense, where the Antoine Cason-led secondary ranks among the best in the Pac-10 and the defensive line welcomes Marcus Smith back from injury and blue-chipper Louis Holmes from the junior-college ranks.   
Why BYU might win: With Beck and RB Curtis Brown, the Cougars possess the kind of offensive balance that makes defensing them a headache.  BYU averaged 43 points over its final five games, clear confirmation that Robert Anae’s spread attack was finally being digested by the offense.  Arizona had just 24 sacks a year ago, and if they can’t apply pressure, Beck will win the battle against that top-shelf Wildcat secondary. 
Why Arizona might win: BYU has defensive concerns of its own. The Cougars had one of the country’s worst pass defenses in 2005, which will help Tuitama build on the momentum he created at the end of last season.  The secondary is a year older, but no better at handling man coverage or fleet-footed receivers such as Arizona’s Syndric Steptoe and Michael Thomas, who’ll get behind the defense for big gainers at least once.   
Who to watch: If Tuitama is going to take the next step, as many expect, it’s imperative he gets support from a running game that was next-to-last in the Pac-10 last year and lost Mike Bell to the NFL.  The onus falls on junior Chris Henry, who has upside to go along with a fumbling problem and the pressure of keeping opposing defenses from keying on the quarterback.     
What will happen: In tight games, it’s the little things that make the difference.  BYU has resorted to auditioning students to fill its deep snapper void, and on the road, special teams gaffes are going to cost them.  It’ll be a coming-out-party of sorts for Stoops and Arizona, which hasn’t had an opening day win with this much meaning since beating Illinois 16 years ago.
CFN Prediction: Arizona 30 ... BYU 28 ... Line: BYU -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3.5
Final Score: 

Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions