Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St

Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Stanford at Oregon  3:30 pm EST  ABC Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to watch: Since no else plays a league game until Sept. 23, the winner can enjoy the view from the top of the Pac-10 for the next few weeks.  Meet the new Ducks, same as the old Ducks.  This is your historically typical Oregon team that’s chock full of offensive weapons, yet has question marks on defense (after being one of the league’s best last year), especially at cornerback.  Stanford has all the components of a prolific passing attack, but lacks balance on offense and the killer instinct on defense to improve on last year’s five wins and get to a bowl game.  Trent Edwards is already considered the third best quarterback prospect by NFL scouts, and with Mark Bradford and Evan Moore back to catch passes, he could be poised for a Carson Palmer-esque senior year.
Why Stanford might win:  Moore and Bradford vs. the ultra-green Oregon corners screams opportunity for Edwards and the Cardinal attack.  That Duck secondary is going to get exposed all season, especially if, as expected, the line can’t supply steady pressure.  Iif Nick Aliotti is uneasy calling blitzes on defense, Edwards will have that crucial extra second to find his premier targets and keep Stanford in the game.  The Cardinal was a surprising 4-1 on the road last year, losing only to USC.
Why Oregon might win: The Stanford offense will have to be good this year because the defense isn’t going to get in the way of many opponents, at least not right away.  They did little right last year, and the Ducks have the speed and big-time playmakers to keep that trend going this weekend.  Behind a rugged offensive line, budding star RB Jonathan Stewart and nifty QB Dennis Dixon will get little resistance from an erratic Cardinal defense that’ll be without its best player, LB Michael Okwo.
Who to watch: The blanket of anonymity currently covering Stewart is about to be lifted.  He’s Marshawn Lynch without the experience or college resume, and until Dixon fully adapts to his role as the full-time quarterback, Stewart will be the offensive fuse.  As a true freshman, he led the country in kickoff return average and took two of 12 back for six.
What will happen: On both sidelines, the offenses will be ahead of the defenses in a pulsating opener that’ll be a lot closer than the odds makers predict. 
CFN Prediction: Oregon 37 ... Stanford 30 ... Line: Tennessee -2
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 3.5
Final Score:

Northern Arizona at Arizona State  10 pm EST  Thursday, August 31st 
Why to watch: When was the last time Arizona State had this much talent and such high expectations? Uhh, that would be last year when it was a trendy choice as a Pac-10 sleeper, yet managed just seven wins and an Insight Bowl invite.  The team is back with nearly as many horses, three impact transfers on defense and the knowledge that another middling season will earn them the “underachiever” tag.  The bizarre and closely-watched quarterback battle between Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter is over, and now it’s up to Carpenter to perform in a loaded offense without having to look over his shoulder. Former Northwestern Wildcat star DE Loren Howard makes his long-awaited debut with ASU after schooling Big Ten tackles almost two years ago.  More than a half-century ago, Arizona State and Northern Arizona were rivals in the old Border Conference, but they’ve met just once in 55 years.  The ‘Jacks were 3-8 in 2005, and were picked to finish seventh in pre-season Big Sky polls.
Northern Arizona might win: Tempe has become a terrific place to soak in some sun and fix what ails your offense.  The Arizona State defense was a sieve last year, allowing 468 yards a game, and it’s going to take a few weeks for the new arrivals to mesh with old hands, such as Jordan Hill, Zach Catanese and Kyle Caldwell. 
Why Arizona State might win: The Sun Devil offense, which averaged 37 points a game last fall, will be just as prolific in 2006 … or better if they develop a consistent running attack.  The passing game is too much for Pac-10 secondaries to handle, let alone a group from the Big Sky. The unit in charge of protecting Carpenter is comprised of all upperclassmen with starting experience.
Who to watch: The inside-outside running combination of Shaun DeWitty and Keegan Herring could make an explosive ASU offense absolutely scary this year.  Herring’s a burner who broke the school’s freshman rushing record last year, and the 6-2, 215-pound DeWitty displayed in the spring that he can pick up more than just the tough yards.  
What will happen: Now that Keller is in Nebraska, and the soap opera surrounding his departure is on hiatus, Arizona State can focus exclusively on a game for a change.  Carpenter will throw a couple of touchdown passes and generally look crisp in a breezy opening night win.      
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 52 ... Northern Arizona 17 ... Line: No LIne
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1
Final Score:

Eastern Washington at Oregon State  10 pm EST  Thursday, August 31st   
Why to watch: Few appear to be paying attention, but Oregon State has the pieces to be the Pac 10’s deep sleeper in the title race.  The quarterback is a veteran, the running back is a stud, the O-line is nasty and returns five starters, and the tight end and kicker are Mackey and Groza Award candidates, respectively.  Yeah, the defense is going to give up points, but the real key is QB Matt Moore, who has a big arm but needs to stop throwing picks like a poor-man’s Derek Anderson.  RB Yvenson Bernard accounted for 1,637 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore, yet is still a well-kept secret.  If Eastern Washington is to win a share of a third straight Big Sky title, it’ll have to do so without a ton of key seniors, including Walter Payton Award winning quarterback Erik Meyer and a quartet of receivers that combined for 74 career touchdowns.
Why Eastern Washington might win: Turnovers.  When Oregon State coughs up the ball with regularity, it put undue pressure on a shaky pass defense and become vulnerable to all opponents.  Last year, the Beavers turned the ball over 36 times in just 11 games, a level of sloppiness that’s extremely tough to overcome.  Eastern Washington is a winning program, and if the Beavers leave the door open, the Eagles won’t hesitate to barrel through.
Oregon State might win: The Beavers will be able to run the ball at will on an Eagle defense that lacks the size and athleticism to get a push on this offensive line.  Bernard could establish a new single-game high of 195 yards rushing if Mike Riley wasn’t so determined to get his offensive star a few more breathers this fall.  Instead, junior-college transfer Clinton Polk will shoulder the load in the second half and give the Beavers a pair of 100-yard rushers on the night.
Who to watch: Oregon State’s fortunes in 2006 rest squarely on the right arm of Moore.  He has got to improve his reads and stop forcing the ball or the Beavers will once again be no better than a .500 team.  If he elevates his play, this becomes a very potent offense.   Eastern Washington doesn’t qualify as a true test, but it does afford Moore a chance to find a groove and boost his confidence.
What will happen: The running game will crank out 300 yards and should allow the passing game to play-action on demand.  Moore will find TE Joe Newton, who’s back after missing all of last year, for a score that’ll mean more to the offense than just six points.
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 51 ..> Eastern Washington 14 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1
Final Score:

San Jose State at Washington  3:30 pm EST  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to Watch:  The Spartans finished last season with a two game winning streak to build some momentum for the 2006 season, while Washington finished last year with only two wins highlighted by a blowout of Arizona.  Both have plenty to prove. The second years of both Washington head coach Ty Willingham and San Jose State head coach Dick Tomey are key to building each one’s respective programs in the right way, but no one’s expecting miracles. This first game will give some insight about just how far each has to go.
Why ­­­­San Jose State Might Win:  San Jose State RB Yonus Davis is a dynamic mighty mite who’s fun to watch and the team’s top offensive weapon.  His quickness and cutback ability puts defenses on alert forcing them to stay in their lanes and pursue with discipline. If the Husky defense can’t keep Davis in check, this could be much closer than expected.
Why Washington Might Win:  Washington QB Isaiah Stanback has continued to improve throughout his career and had a strong spring.  He has sprinter’s speed, and now his throwing accuracy has improved and should help keep the chains moving on third down. Safety C.J. Wallace is a rock-hard hitter who sets a tone with his physical, hitting style on defense.  He’ll be the key to stopping Davis from finding running room on cutbacks into the secondary.
Who to Watch:  Washington suffered a major blow when RB J.R. Hasty was lost for the year with after being declared ineligible, so the onus to help keep pressure off of Stanback falls on RBs Kenny James and Louis Rankin.  San Jose State LB Matt Castelo is a mini-Zack Thomas who tackles anything in his path and should butt heads with James, Rankin and Stanback throughout the game.
What Will Happen:  If Stanback really is ready to take the next step, then the Huskies will have the offensive weapon that they’ve lacked since former star QB Cody Pickett graduated.  Davis should make some highlight reel runs, but it won’t be enough to counter what Stanback and the Husky offense will do.
CFN Prediction: Washington 38 ... San Jose State 14 ... Line: Washington -18
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 1.5
Final Score:

California at Tennessee  5:30 pm EST  ESPN  Saturday, September 2nd 
Why to Watch: Florida State vs. Miami is the marquee game and everyone will be watching Notre Dame battle Georgia Tech, but this will likely be the most important battle of week one. If the Pac 10 really wants to be taken seriously by everyone east of the Rocky Mountains, this is a must win for Cal. The Bears are better than the Volunteers. They have more offensive firepower, better running backs, better linebackers, and the all-around talent to be in the hunt for the national title. However, Cal hasn't won a really, really big game since USC half-assed it in the 2003 loss. Jeff Tedford's program could use a splashy victory to get the national respect it's been so close to cementing for the last few years. If you believe everything you read, Tennessee is being considered just a shade better than Temple after an overblown 5-6 season, but it has to come up with the opening day home win to ease the pressure off Phil Fulmer and his staff with the Florida showdown in two weeks. A win by the Vols would show that things are back to normal in Knoxville. 
Why California Might Win: It's the better team. Tennessee can be back to being Tennessee and it still might mean the Bears will come away with the win. The jury is still out on Vol QB Erik Ainge and whether or not he can be a consistent enough passer to be a difference maker in a game like this. He'll be under pressure from the start with the Vol offensive line still a work in progress after trying to get tougher and more physical with a stepped up off-season regimen. The improvement might not matter with All-America DT Brandon Mebane and the the Cal line good enough to control the trenches. There's also rebuilding being done on the Vol defensive front seven. That's not a plus with Marshawn Lynch and the Cal running game certain to be solid right off the bat.
Why Tennessee Might Win: Cal's most impressive road win in the Tedford era came against ....um, uh ... there were a few nice victories against average Arizona State teams, and that's about it. The Bears have gone a mediocre 14-8 on the road over the last four years with most of the wins coming against the basement Pac 10 teams. Is the team ready to step up to the big boy table and win in a place like Neyland Stadium? This is still Tennessee at home, and it's still full of pro prospects and enough talent to beat anyone in America.
Who to Watch: Is Ainge really going to be better now that David Cutcliffe is the offensive coordinator? Yeah, but he'll also get help from an improved receiving corps that should struggle a bit after losing starting corner Tim Mixon for the year with a knee injury. There's no plan B this year if Ainge stinks, so if he's not on, the panic sirens will go off. ... Cal's backup situation is far better. Nate Longshore was finally announced as the starter on Tuesday with the broken leg suffered in last year's season opener fully healed. That doesn't mean he'll play the whole game with last year's starter, Joe Ayoob, improved enough to be in the hunt for playing time.
What Will Happen:  This should be fantastic. Tennessee will play far better than it did over the second half of last year, but Cal will be too consistent and too strong on both sides of the ball with the ground game taking over late.
CFN Prediction: California 27 ... Tennessee 24 ... Line: Tennessee -2
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 5
Final Score: 

Utah at UCLA  7 pm  September 2, 2006 
Why to Watch: Welcome to one of the most intriguing under-the-radar games of the first weekend. Utah has its sights set on its second BCS trip in three seasons with all the toughest games at home with the exception of this one. UCLA is coming off a thrilling 10-2 season, but it has to come up with a whole boatload of replacements and has a brutal schedule over the second half of the season. It's not a stretch to think the Bruins could be at the extremes after just one game. Either they might need this win over the Utes to be in the mix for a bowl bid, or they could get off to a hot start before going to Oregon in mid-October.
Why Utah Might Win: Is the UCLA defense any better than last year when it finished 118th in the nation against the run? New defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker is supposed to tighten things up, but it's still going to take a little bit of time after years of no production and with several new players taking over in the front seven. The Ute line should control the Bruin front four from the start, but ...
Why UCLA Might Win:  ... will there be anyone to run through the holes?  Mike Liti and former USC Trojan Darryl Poston, who has had problems with a hamstring injury, are serviceable backs, but nothing special. UCLA will be the fastest team the Utes play all season long, and that's not a plus in a season opener when not everything will be clicking right away. Most teams, like Georgia Tech in the Emerald Bowl, have a problem with Utah when they don't take the game seriously. UCLA will be well motivated and won't be looking ahead to Rice.
Who to Watch: The quarterbacks take center stage with big Ben Olson finally beginning his career at UCLA after originally signing with BYU in 2002 before taking a few years off to go on a church mission. After backing up Drew Olson last year, the 6-5 sophomore has seen more than enough practice time to be ready for live action, but it might take a little while to find any sort of groove. He has the talent to be an all-star and could be the X factor in the Pac 10 race. For Utah, a fantastic quarterback situation was whittled down to just Brett Ratliff and Tommy Grady after Brian Johnson, the team's best option, ended up taking this year off to give his injured knee time to heal after tearing it up late last year. Ratliff filled in more than adequately last year highlighted by a brilliant day in the Emerald Bowl win over Georgia Tech. If he's off, Utah won't win.
What Will Happen: Utah is more than good enough to win this game and is the absolute real deal, but UCLA will have too much speed and too much offense. If the Utes win this, start up the BCS talk. If the Bruins escape with the win, they'll go 5-0.
CFN Prediction: UCLA 31 ... Utah 27 ... Line: UCLA -6
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Pants Off, Dance Off) ... 4
Final Score: 

Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2