Big Ten
Illinois
|
Indiana
|
Iowa
|
Michigan
|
Michigan State
|
Minnesota
Northwestern
|
Ohio State
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Penn State
|
Purdue
|
Wisconsin
- Past Predictions:
Week One
|
Week Two
Big Ten Week
Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2
How'd we do so far? 11-0 straight
up, 6-2
ATS
Big Ten Game of
the Week
Michigan
(2-0)
at
Notre Dame
(2-0) 3:30 pm EST NBC Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
One way or the other, a flock will be
converted. There are still some doubters
out there about Notre Dame even after a
41-17 whupping of Penn State and
disrespected, tough 14-10 win over
Georgia Tech. Maybe the Nittany Lions
aren't any good? Didn't the Yellow
Jackets sort of beat themselves with
ther conservative play calling? Has this
defense really faced a talented,
balanced offense? While the trip to East
Lansing to face a thorn-in-the-side
Michigan State team will be a tough
test, this week's battle with Michigan
probably represents the last real shot
for a possible Notre Dame loss until the
regular-season ender at USC. For
Michigan, this is as much a must-win
game for Lloyd Carr as any against Ohio
State. While recent Big Ten titles are
great, a large segment of the Maize and
Blue fan base is getting a little itchy
waiting for Michigan to once again be a
player in the national title race. Under
Carr, the Wolverines have been out of
the hunt before the leaves have turned
losing their opening road game in each
of the last six seasons and in seven of
the last eight years. Losing three of
the last four to the South Benders
hasn't helped. A win would propel
Michigan into a BCS race and generate a
major buzz going into the Big Ten opener
against Wisconsin. With Penn State
appearing to be average and the toughest
Big Ten games at home until the
season-ending showdown at Ohio State, a
win might mean clear sailing until late
November.
Why Michigan might win: Penn
State's Tony Hunt and Georgia Tech's
Tashard Choice are decent backs, but
neither will make any All-America lists.
Even so. the Notre Dame defense has been
average against the run allowing 277
yards in the first two games. Michigan's
Mike Hart is healthy and on a roll
rushing for 116 yards and three
touchdowns in a limited role against
Central Michigan and 146 yards against
Vanderbilt. This is a different team
when Hart is pounding the ball, and now
he finally gets a chance to see what he
can do against the Irish after getting
knocked out early in last year's game.
The better Michigan is at controlling
the clock with Hart, the long Brady
Quinn and the Irish attack will hang out
on the sidelines.
Why Notre Dame might win:
Where's the go-to Michigan receiver?
Steve Breaston, Mario Manningham, and
others have failed to adequately step up
and replace the Jason Avant's lost
production putting more and more
pressure on the ground gameto produce.
Michigan QB Chad Henne is good enough to
win a game like this as long as his
receivers are giving him a little bit of
help, but that could be a problem. The
Notre Dame secondary did as good a job
as humanly possible against Georgia
Tech's Calvin Johnson, and it all but
erased Derrick Williams and the Penn
State receivers. The main reason for the
production in the Irish secondary is
because ...
Who to watch: ... safeties
Chinedum Ndukwe and Tom Zbikowski are
flat-out crushing and killing everything
in their path. With a combined 26
tackles and enough teeth-rattling hits
to fill a highlight reel, these two have
quickly become the nation's most
intimidating safety tandem. Are the
Michigan receivers tough enough to go
over the middle on a consistent basis?
We'll quickly find out. On the other
side of the ball, Notre Dame's offensive
line still has to prove that it can keep
Quinn upright. Michigan's pass rush, led
by LaMarr Woods and Rondell Biggs, have
to be effective at hurrying Quinn while
knocking him around a little bit.
Georgia Tech beat Quinn up, and the
Irish offensive sputtered. The Wolverine
pass rushers must provide some pop from
the moment they step on the field
What will happen: Never screw
with a streak. This is a new Michigan
team with several new coaches and a
leaner, meaner attitude, but it's still
Michigan in a road opener. Notre Dame
will know it's been in a fight.
CFN Prediction:
Notre Dame 23 ... Michigan 20
... Line: Notre Dame -7
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ... 5
Cincinnati
(1-1)
at
Ohio State
(2-0) 12 pm EST GamePlan Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
You’ve got to go back 109 years to find
the last time Cincinnati got the best of
Ohio State, but the Bearcats get a
chance to shock the world in Columbus
Saturday afternoon. Think it might be
crazy? In 2002, UC almost ended the
Buckeye national title season before it
began with a near-miss, down to the
final drive 23-19 loss. Coming off a
lackluster 33-15 home loss to
Pittsburgh, the Bearcats have to deal
with two brutal road games going to
Virginia Tech next week. The Buckeyes
were the undisputed story of Week 2,
ending Texas’ 20-game winning streak and
solidifying their No. 1 ranking in both
polls. They’ve got the aura a champion,
but they have to get used to avoiding
letdowns against inferior opponents and
playing as a marked team the rest of the
way.
Why Cincinnati might win:
Break out the tape of that 2002 game,
when Cincinnati led for 56 minutes and
nearly pulled off the shocker. Strange
things happen every weekend in college
football, especially with the potential
letdown facing Ohio State after last
weekend’s mega-tilt. Just ask Florida
State, which needed to rally a week ago
to beat Troy. OSU has a showdown with
Penn State next week making this a
potentially dangerous sandwich game.
Why Ohio State might win:
Cincinnati is a mess on offense, and
that isn’t about to change against an
Ohio State D that grew up fast Saturday
night in Austin. There are no stars
yet on the Buckeye defense (although
LB Jim Laurinaitis is quickly on the
rise), which is a good thing right now
because they’ll come to play this
weekend and approach the Bearcats like
any other challenge. They’ve allowed
just two touchdowns this year, and that
number likely won’t change on
Saturday.
Who to watch:
A star was born in the Lone Star State
last Saturday. In the biggest game of
his life, Laurinaitis delivered 13
tackles, forced two fumbles and an
interception, forever ending his
anonymity. He’s just a sophomore, and
has that seek and destroy quality
inherent to so many great Buckeye
linebackers that preceded him. Now the
spotlight is on. Can he continue to
shine?
What will happen:
The Buckeyes might sleepwalk through the
early stages of the game, but Cincinnati
doesn’t have the weapons on offense to
take advantage and make this game
competitive beyond the first quarter.
CFN Prediction:
Ohio State 41 ... Cincinnati 9
... Line: Ohio State -29.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
2
Michigan
State
(2-0)
at
Pitt
(2-0) 12 pm EST ESPN2 Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
The first meeting between the schools in
46 years has far more significance than
most would have imagined back in
August. Pitt’s been one of the big
surprises of the early season and is
poking around the Top 25 after
surprisingly easy wins over Virginia and
Cincinnati. After slogging through
2005, the Panthers have done a 180 by
playing terrific defense and doing a
much better job in pass protection.
Somehow, the defense appears to have
gotten much faster over the last several
months. Michigan State is also 2-0, but
wins over Idaho and Eastern Michigan
have mostly elicited yawns. A road win
here would get the Spartans the respect
they believe they deserve and send them
into the showdown against Notre Dame on
a roll. Pitt’s Tyler Palko vs. Michigan
State’s Drew Stanton is the best duel of
senior quarterbacks this year until
Brady Quinn hits East Lansing.
Why Michigan State might win:
Drew Stanton. Really, the entire
Spartan offense, but Stanton is the
catalyst and one of those rare talents
that can carry a team on his back. He’s
accounted for six touchdowns already
while leading the nation’s No. 8
offense. If RBs Javon Ringer and Jehuu
Caulcrick are healthy and effective,
State becomes the most balanced team
Pitt will face until the season-finale
with Louisville.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Both
teams can score plenty of points, but
only Pitt can be counted on to
consistently stop the other.
While the Panthers are ranked in the top
20 in every major statistical category,
the Spartans are young, rife with
question marks and ready to be exposed.
What do the two best defensive
players—LB H.B. Blades and CB Darrelle
Revis—in this game have in common? They
both answer to Dave Wannstedt, who has
suddenly shown off his talent as a
defensive coach.
Who to watch: Spartan WR Matt
Trannon is coming off a record-breaking,
14-catch afternoon, but with Revis
shadowing him, the catches could be
quite a bit harder to come by this
weekend. Like almost every corner that
faces Trannon, Revis will be giving away
six inches of height and have problems
with the former basketball star’s
leaping ability. However, the junior is
aggressive, instinctive, and fast
becoming one of the most polished cover
corners in America.
What will happen: With so many
big games this weekend, this one will
reside beneath the radar. Too bad.
It’ll be high-scoring, entertaining, and
won by Pittsburgh, the one team at Heinz
Field that’ll make key defensive stops
late in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction:
Pitt 37 ... Michigan State 31
... Line: Pitt -2
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
3.5
Syracuse
(0-2)
at
Illinois
(1-1) 12 pm EST ESPNU Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
This would get everyone's blood racing
if it were played on the hardcourt, but
on the football field, these two have
been among the most disappointing name
programs around over the last few years.
Ron Zook's young, young, young Illini
showed last week in a 33-0 loss to
Rutgers that it's still at least a year
away from thinking about turning things
around, while Greg Robinson's Orange
team has had to spend the last week
known nationally as the team that can't
gain two yards on seven tries after
getting stuffed by Iowa 20-13 in two
overtimes. SU has lost 11 straight while
Illinois has lost ten in a row against
D-I teams. Someone will finally break
the gloom.
Why Syracuse might win: Illinois
is a mess. SU might be having problems,
but Illinois wasn't even close against
Rutgers and isn't getting any production
from the lines. Currently second in the
nation in turnover margin, the Orange
should be able to come up with a few big
plays. If the offense can finally start
to take advantage of a few
opportunities, the better-than-it-looks
defense should be able to do its job
against the struggling Illini offense.
Why Illinois might win:
Can Syracuse stop the run? LB Kevin
Smith is an All-America caliber star and
the leader of a decent group, but the
Orange D got rolled over by Wake Forest
for 245 rushing yards and by Iowa for
149. Illinois might not be consistent,
but it has the backs to get the ground
game going with Pierre Thomas and E.B.
Halsey good enough to carry the offense
if the line can give them a little bit
of room. Syracuse doesn't have the
offense to crank out more than 300
yards, much less put the game away with
any sort of spurt.
Who to watch: It's time the two
offenses started to use their
underutilized weapons. Syracuse
sophomore Curtis Brinkley has the speed
and quickness to be a difference-making
running back, but he only got 11 carries
against Iowa and was nowhere to be found
on the fateful overtime goal line stand.
The offense has revolved around QB Perry
Patterson, and that continues to be a
disaster. For Illinois, Pierre Thomas is
the number one back, but E.B. Halsey is
the more dangerous all-around runner.
The coaching staff has to try to find
ways to get the ball in Halsey's hands
after he only ran four times for four
yards against Rutgers.
What will happen: One of these
two will finally break the
doom-and-gloom. Of the two
bottom-feeders, Illinois is playing a
little bit worse.
CFN Prediction:
Syracuse 20 ... Illinois 16
... Line: Illinois -3
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
2
Iowa State
(2-0)
at
Iowa
(2-0) 12 pm EST ESPN Saturday, September
16th
Why to watch:
Nasty isn't quite the right word to
describe the Iowa - Iowa State rivalry;
Iowans are too nice. It's more like a
battle between brothers who are mostly
on the same side, but has to have the
upper hand. Eli has had the upper-hand
over Peyton with Iowa State beating Iowa
six out of the last eight times
including a 23-3 beating last
season in Ames. Iowa is looking to get
into some sort of a groove after having
way too many problems with an awful
Syracuse team, but it should be sky-high
after coming up with a goal line stand
for the ages to get the win in overtime.
Iowa State is 2-0, but it's a shaky 2-0
winning both games on other team's
misfires on the final play of the game.
Toledo lost to the Cyclones in overtime
with a two-point conversion failed to
click, waiting UNLV is still hanging
around Jack Trice Stadium waiting for a
controversial final play in the end zone
to be overturned. Iowa State gets to go
to Texas next week to kick off it Big 12
season, while Iowa starts off the Big
Ten campaign next week at Illinois.
Why Iowa State might win: The
Cyclones always play at another level
when they play the Hawkeyes. If the
Cyclones can force some early mistakes
and get capitalize on them, A "here we
go again" feeling might start to creep
in on the other side of the field. The
defense has been good at getting to the
quarterback over the first two games
with six sacks and several near-misses.
Iowa's offensive line has been good, but
not great and will be pushed far harder
than it was against Montana or Syracuse.
This Iowa team isn't nearly as good as
it's going to be in mid-October.
Why Iowa might win:
Iowa State's secondary is having
problems. If Iowa's passing game is ever
going to start to take flight, this is
the game to do it against a defense that
allowed 367 passing yards to Toledo's
Clint Cochran and 218 to the UNLV
quarterbacks. The Cyclones can be dinked
and dunked on, and they can be bombed
on. Toledo TE Chris Hopkins had a field
day in the opener. Iowa's big Scott
Chandler should have similar success.
Iowa State's offense is balanced, but it
works best when RB Stevie Hicks is
rolling. Iowa is currently eighth in the
nation in run defense.
Who to watch: If there was a vote
for college football's most valuable
player, it might have to go to Iowa's
Drew Tate. Without the senior star, who
missed the Syracuse game with an
abdominal strain, the Hawkeye offense
went into the tank. Senior backup Jason
Manson means well and is a hard worker,
but he's not a D-I quarterback. Against
Syracuse, he threw four picks and was
way too inconsistent. In last year's
Iowa State game, he stepped in for Tate,
who suffered a concussion in the first
half, and completed ten of 31 passes for
117 yards with an interception. It might
be this simple: if Tate isn't healthy
and effective, Iowa State will win.
What will happen: Tate will
literally gut it out and come up with
two big pass plays to overcome a
fantastic effort from Bret Meyer and the
Cyclone passing game.
CFN Prediction:
Iowa 31 ... Iowa State 27
... Line: Iowa -3.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
3.5
Ball State
(1-1)
at
Purdue
(2-0) 1 pm EST Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch:
It hasn't exactly been a smooth ride,
but Purdue is 2-0 and happy to get off
to a decent start after a disastrous
2005. Considering how much of an
afterthought the team has become on a
national scale, it might surprise you
that the Boilermakers are going for
their sixth win in a row before starting
off the Big Ten season against
Minnesota. Coming off a tough overtime
win over Miami (no, the other one),
Purdue needs a confidence booster. Ball
State gave Indiana all it could handle
and more in a 24-23 loss, and now it
would love nothing more than to pull off
the shocker against Purdue and give the
MAC more street cred.
Why Ball State might win:
Allowing 870 yards and 66 points,
Purdue's porous defense picked up where
it left off last year. The secondary was
picked clean last week by Mike Kokal and
the RedHawks, and Ball State has just
enough of an air attack to light up the
Boilermakers like a Christmas tree. If
field position turns out to be an issue,
BSU has a huge advantage thanks to its
punting game. Purdue is 113th in the
nation in net punting averaging 24.6
yards per kick, while the Cardinals are
20th averaging 39.18 yards per boot.
Why Purdue might win:
There's no reason for Purdue to worry at
all about a Ball State running game;
there isn't one. Oh sure, it ran for 159
yards on Eastern Michigan, but it
averaged 1.9 yards per carry netting 41
yards against Indiana. If Purdue can
somehow prevent the big pass play, it
should be able to do just enough on
defense to allow the improving offense
to put this away late in the first half.
Curtis Painter should be able to run the
option to his heart's content on the BSU
linebackers.
Who to watch: Purdue sophomore RB
Kory Sheets is quickly growing into one
of the Big Ten's most productive backs.
With a great blend of speed and power,
he has dominated over the first two
games rushing for four touchdowns
against Ball State and scoring three
times against Indiana State. Now he
needs the ball more. With only 31
carries so far, he has a lot of tread on
the tires and is more than tough enough
to handle a bigger workload. Even so, it
would be a big plus to be able to keep
him fresh for the biggest games ahead.
What will happen: Purdue has yet
to put together a complete game. This
might be no exception, but it'll pull
ahead late to make the final score look
worse than the game will be.
CFN Prediction:
Purdue 41 ... Ball State 23
... Line: Purdue -16
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
2.5
Big Ten Week
Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2