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Texas A&M
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Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions:
Week One |
Week Two
How'd we do so far? 21-3 straight
up, 6-10-1
ATS
Big 12 Week Three Fearless Predictions,
Part 2
Big 12 Game of
the Week
Nebraska
(2-0)
at
USC
(1-0) 8 pm EST ABC Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
Don't laugh. Don't snicker, don't sneer,
don't guffaw. Ready? ... This might turn
out to be the game for the national
title. Fine, so there are about a
bazillion other teams out there that
would happily challenge that notion, but
it's hard to ignore how Nebraska has
become a balanced, championship-caliber
team on both sides of the ball with a
running game to help the ever improving
passing attack. The defense has a
defensive line on the verge of breaking
out and a secondary that, well, more on
that in a moment. Yeah, the two wins
have come against Louisiana Tech and
Nicholls State, but this still looks
like a Husker team on the verge of huge
things. With Texas looking vulnerable,
check out the remaining Husker schedule
and find the one, sure-thing loss: Troy,
Kansas, at Iowa State, at Kansas State,
Texas, at Oklahoma State, Missouri, at
Texas A&M , Colorado. Sold yet? If
Nebraska is good enough to be USC at USC,
it's good enough to blow through the
rest of its schedule on the way to a
likely rematch with Texas in the Big 12
title game. Of course, there's that
little matter of getting past the
nation's best team. No, it's not Ohio
State, it's not Notre Dame, and it's not
someone in the SEC. At the immediate
moment, the most talented team in the
land is in L.A. with an offense that'll
be every bit as effective as previous
versions and a defense that should be
better than last year's. In other words,
this game is a must watch in a weekend
of must watch game.
Why Nebraska might win: It'll all
be about tapping the Booty. Nebraska's
defense led the nation in sacks and
tackles for loss and has all the parts
back, While the group hasn't been
up-to-2005-snuff so far with only two
sacks and ten tackles for loss, there
have been some suggestions that the
coaching staff didn't exactly turn the
dogs loose over the first two weeks in
order to keep things under wraps a
little bit. USC QB John David Booty has
been around for years, but he hasn't
faced the pressure he'll see on Saturday
outside of a few intense practices. If
he's getting popped, the Huskers have a
great shot at pulling off the upset.
However, if Booty gets a wee bit of time
to go through all his reads and let his
receivers work deep ...
Why USC might win:
... the Trojans should be able to call
their shot and score at will. Don't let
the numbers fool you; Nebraska doesn't
have the nation's 11th best pass
defense. Nicholls State is a pure
running team that failed to complete a
pass last week in the 56-7 loss.
Louisiana Tech wasn't exactly sharp in
its passing game, but it came up with
238 yards. The Huskers might have
blinding speed in the secondary, but
they don't have a lot of experience and
are still trying to make all the parts
fit after injuries struck early. That's
not a plus when facing the nation's best
receiving corps.
Who to watch: Does USC have the
defense to slow down the Nebraska
offense? The overall talent is there,
and the linebacking corps is out of this
world, but top players are getting
picked off by injuries. Starting DT
Sedrick Ellis will be out for a while
after undergoing knee surgery after
suffering an injury in practice. That
means Chris Barrett and Fili Moala, who
have a little bit of experience, have to
play like grizzled veterans. In the
secondary, Taylor Mays will try to
replace Josh Pinkard after the senior
got knocked out for the year with a knee
injury. Mays is an NFL talent waiting to
blossom, but he's only a freshman and
will be picked on right off the bat.
What will happen: This will be
Nebraska's coming out party. The offense
will put up big numbers and the defense
will come up with a gem ... for three
quarters. USC will make a few
adjustments and will hit just enough
home runs in the fourth quarter to get
by with a tough, tough win.
CFN Prediction:
USC 38 ... Nebraska 28
... Line: USC -18
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ... 5
Kansas
(2-0)
at
Toledo
(0-2) 12 pm EST ESPN2 Friday,
September 15th
Why to watch:
Toledo might be the best 0-2 team in the
country. After a heartbreaking
three-overtime loss to Iowa State, the
Rockets inexplicably went into the tank
against Western Michigan in a 31-10 loss
that'll set them back big-time in the
MAC race. The passing game has been
there and the offense has the firepower
to put up big points, but the losing
slide has to stop now. On the flip side,
Kansas has been mediocre at best beating
Northwestern State and UL Monroe. If you
can only beat ULM 21-19, there are
issues. KU has bigger fish to fry ahead
playing Nebraska in two weeks, so it
needs this game and next week's tussle
with South Florida to be ready.
Why Kansas might win: Yeah, it
only played Northwestern State and UL
Monroe, but the KU run defense appears
to have reloaded with an aggressive
front that's been great at getting into
the backfield. Toledo has done next to
nothing in the running game relying on
Clint Cochran's arm to carry the
offense. If he's inconsistent, like he
was against Western Michigan, KU will
come away with the win.
Why Toledo might win:
Under Mark Mangino, Kansas has been
awful on the road going just 3-17 with a
win over Missouri in 2004, Wyoming in
2003, and Tulsa in 2002. Yeah, Toledo
hasn't been able to run the ball, but it
has the ability to bomb away if Cochran
gets hot. Kansas couldn't handle Kinsmon
Lancaster and the mighty Warhawk passing
game last week and could get shredded to
bits. The KU offense isn't exactly built
to put points on the board in a hurry.
Who to watch: Kansas senior RB
Jon Cornish has been the offense early
on and he'll need to be a steady factor
to keep the pressure off new starting QB
Kerry Meier. Cornish is a former
linebacker with good hands and a nice
speed burst. With 243 yards and three
touchdowns in the first two games, and
6.75 yard-per-carry average, he has been
the team's MVP by far. For the Toledo
offense, senior TE Chris Hopkins is
making an early case for the Mackey
Award after catching 13 passes for 139
yards and three touchdowns against Iowa
State and four catches for 100 yards
against Western Michigan.
What will happen: How real is
Kansas? Toledo is a tough test on the
road with too much firepower for the
Jayhawks to overcome if this gets into
any sort of a shootout. Cochran will
find his groove just in time to come
away with the win.
CFN Prediction:
Toledo 21 ... Kansas 13
... Line: Toledo -5.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
2.5
Iowa State
(2-0)
at
Iowa
(2-0) 12 pm EST ESPN Saturday, September
16th
Why to watch:
Nasty isn't quite the right word to
describe the Iowa - Iowa State rivalry;
Iowans are too nice. It's more like a
battle between brothers who are mostly
on the same side, but has to have the
upper hand. Eli has had the upper-hand
over Peyton with Iowa State beating Iowa
six out of the last eight times
including a 23-3 beating last
season in Ames. Iowa is looking to get
into some sort of a groove after having
way too many problems with an awful
Syracuse team, but it should be sky-high
after coming up with a goal line stand
for the ages to get the win in overtime.
Iowa State is 2-0, but it's a shaky 2-0
winning both games on other team's
misfires on the final play of the game.
Toledo lost to the Cyclones in overtime
with a two-point conversion failed to
click, waiting UNLV is still hanging
around Jack Trice Stadium waiting for a
controversial final play in the end zone
to be overturned. Iowa State gets to go
to Texas next week to kick off it Big 12
season, while Iowa starts off the Big
Ten campaign next week at Illinois.
Why Iowa State might win: The
Cyclones always play at another level
when they play the Hawkeyes. If the
Cyclones can force some early mistakes
and get capitalize on them, A "here we
go again" feeling might start to creep
in on the other side of the field. The
defense has been good at getting to the
quarterback over the first two games
with six sacks and several near-misses.
Iowa's offensive line has been good, but
not great and will be pushed far harder
than it was against Montana or Syracuse.
This Iowa team isn't nearly as good as
it's going to be in mid-October.
Why Iowa might win:
Iowa State's secondary is having
problems. If Iowa's passing game is ever
going to start to take flight, this is
the game to do it against a defense that
allowed 367 passing yards to Toledo's
Clint Cochran and 218 to the UNLV
quarterbacks. The Cyclones can be dinked
and dunked on, and they can be bombed
on. Toledo TE Chris Hopkins had a field
day in the opener. Iowa's big Scott
Chandler should have similar success.
Iowa State's offense is balanced, but it
works best when RB Stevie Hicks is
rolling. Iowa is currently eighth in the
nation in run defense.
Who to watch: If there was a vote
for college football's most valuable
player, it might have to go to Iowa's
Drew Tate. Without the senior star, who
missed the Syracuse game with an
abdominal strain, the Hawkeye offense
went into the tank. Senior backup Jason
Manson means well and is a hard worker,
but he's not a D-I quarterback. Against
Syracuse, he threw four picks and was
way too inconsistent. In last year's
Iowa State game, he stepped in for Tate,
who suffered a concussion in the first
half, and completed ten of 31 passes for
117 yards with an interception. It might
be this simple: if Tate isn't healthy
and effective, Iowa State will win.
What will happen: Tate will
literally gut it out and come up with
two big pass plays to overcome a
fantastic effort from Bret Meyer and the
Cyclone passing game.
CFN Prediction:
Iowa 31 ... Iowa State 27
... Line: Iowa -3.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
3.5
Marshall
(1-1)
at
Kansas State
(2-0) 12:30 pm EST Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
It's a
rematch of last year's bizarre thriller
in Huntington when Marshall inexplicably
threw a pass with less than ten seconds
to play, in field goal range, and down
by two. It was picked off, and KSU
survived 21-19. Marshall shocked the
Cats 27-20 in 2003, and now this has
turned into a bit of a nasty series. Now
under new head coach Ron Prince, the
Wildcats are
2-0 after coming off a 45-0 dismantling
of Florida Atlantic. With Louisville
coming up next week and a tough Big 12
road slate ahead, they need all the wins
they can get to be in the mix for a bowl
game. Marshall bounced back from the
42-10 loss to West Virginia to throttle
Hofstra 54-31, and it desperately needs
this win to avoid a likely 1-3 start
with a trip to Tennessee next week. This
would be a great trophy road win for
Mark Snyder and the Herd program.
Why Marshall might win: Kansas
State's passing game hasn't been
anything to get excited about over the
first two weeks, and that's even going
against two cupcakes. The Marshall
secondary has been an issue early on,
which is particularly galling since it
played run first, run second and run
third West Virginia in the opener, but
it's not going to be challenged in
Manhattan. Snyder and his staff will be
able fully concentrate on selling out
against the run.
Why Kansas State might win:
The Wildcat defense will force mistakes.
Marshall hasn't been complete secure
with the ball losing five turnovers so
far, and things might be even worse with
an attacking KSU D that'll put pressure
on the quarterback all game long. SU
leads the nation with 22 tackles for
loss, to go along with seven sacks, and
should be able to attack, attack, attack
without too much fear of getting torched
deep.
Who to watch: In a game that's as
dead even as this one should be, the
little things will make the difference.
The team with the better special teams
play will likely come away with the win.
Marshall's Emmanuel Spann is coming off
a terrific receiving day catching ten
passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, but
he made his biggest impact as a kick
returner with five punt returns for 85
yards and two kickoff returns for 63
yards. He'll be matched by Kansas State
WR Yamon Figurs, who returned two punts
for 89 yards and a touchdown in the
opener against Illinois State and four
kickoffs for 113 yards.
What will happen: It'll be yet
another interesting battle in the series
with each team's ground game taking
center stage. Kansas State will come up
with a few more big plays at home to
come away with a hard-fought win.
CFN Prediction:
Kansas State 27 ... Marshall 23
... Line: Kansas State -11
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
2.5
Oklahoma
(2-0)
at
Oregon
(2-0) 3:30 pm EST ABC Saturday,
September 16th
Why to watch:
The Pac 10 needs this. Badly. Everyone
knows and respects USC, but it's been
hard for anyone outside of the Pacific
Time Zone to give two hoots about the
rest of the conference. To be fair, it's
not like the league has done anything to
earn any recognition with losses in most
of the high profile games. Cal got
spanked by a Tennessee team that
struggled the following week against Air
Force, Washington State and Arizona each
got thumped in their SEC road games, and
Oregon lost to Oklahoma in last year's
Holiday Bowl after being this
close to making a BCS game. Outside of
UCLA's date with Notre Dame, this is
sort of it for the Pac 10 to get some
love. OU has been shaky over the first
two weeks and now has to deal with the
toughest place to play in the Pac 10 in
Autzen Stadium. Oregon is a great team
that's battle tested and is playing well
enough to come into this expecting a big
win. Yes, this is a must-win for Oregon
to jack the confidence through the roof
going into nasty road dates at Arizona
State and Cal over the following two
weeks. OU gets a tune-up against Middle
Tennessee before the Texas showdown.
Everyone figured the Sooner offense
would slip a little bit after losing QB
Rhett Bomar, but most assumed the
defense and the running of Adrian
Peterson would make up for it. Peterson
has been fine, but the defense hasn't
been quite up-to-snuff even though it
only allowed 37 points in the first two
games. There have been turnovers from
the O, inconsistencies, and a general
lack of big playmaking from the D.
Why Oklahoma might win: Adrian
Peterson. The best player in America
rushed for 139 yards and took a
short pass 69 yards for a score against
UAB, and he tore through Washington for
165 yards and two scores. While Oregon
is defense on the defensive front, it
couldn't handle Fresno State's Dwayne
Wright who ran for 154 yards and a score
on 29 carries. The depleted Duck
secondary can't sell out on every play
to stop Peterson, so suddenly-solid OU
QB Paul Thompson should see plenty of
good matchups to exploit.
Why Oregon might win:
Where is the Oklahoma run defense?
Quarterback was supposed to be an issue,
and the offensive line was supposed to
be a huge problem, but the defensive
line was supposed to be among the best
in America with too many great pass
rushers to get on the field at the same
time, and a stout interior that was
expected to stop running games cold. UAB
and Washington weren't consistent on the
ground, but they were able to bust off
some big runs and stay alive in tight
games. If Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart is
back in form after only playing one play
against Fresno State due to an ankle
injury, it might be a long day for OU.
The last thing the Sooners need will be
for Oregon to control the clock, the
tempo, and the crowd, and the Duck
running attack might just do that.
Who to watch: While the focus
will be on the tailbacks, the real
matchup will be the Oklahoma receivers
vs. the Oregon secondary. Last week
might have been the official coming out
party for Oklahoma sophomore WR Malcolm
Kelly. The speedster came on at the end
of last year, catching seven passes for
79 yards against the Ducks, but he has
grown into a more complete receiver as
evidenced by a six-grab, 121-yard two
touchdown day against the Huskies.
Oregon wasn't exactly a rock in the
defensive backfield, and now it has to
go on without top corner Jackie Bates,
who broke his ankle against Fresno
State. That means it'll either be an
experienced freshman, or safety Patrick
Chang moving around to cover the OU
receivers one-on-one. If Thompson can
exploit this early and loosen things up,
Peterson will end up running for 200
yards.
What will happen: Chalk this up
to the home field advantage. Oklahoma
just hasn't been solid enough to show
that it can go into a road game like
this and come through. Oregon QB Dennis
Dixon will be effective, and the ground
attack, with or without Stewart, will
bust off at least two big runs in the
shootout.
CFN Prediction:
Oregon 35 ... Oklahoma 31
... Line: Oregon -3.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
Dancing with the Stars) ...
4.5
Big 12 Week Three Fearless Predictions,
Part 2