Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week 3, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 14, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week three Pac 10 games ... Part Two


Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona StCalifornia | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St
Past Predictions:
Week One | Week Two

How are the picks so far? SU 16-2 ... ATS 6-9-1


Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions        

Fresno State (1-1) at Washington (1-1), 6:30 EST, Saturday, September 16th
Why to Watch:  The battle between the Dogs is another tussle for bragging rights between the Pac-10 and the WAC.  San Jose State and Boise State represented the WAC well with big wins over Stanford and Oregon State respectively, while Washington and Oregon picked up victories over San Jose State and Fresno State.  After the win over San Jose State, Washington ran into an Oklahoma buzz saw in the second half of their loss in Norman, while Fresno State battled Oregon throughout the game, but got beat by a fake field goal in the fourth quarter.  This conference rubber match, so to speak, is a huge for both teams. Fresno State wants to reestablish that it belongs among the BCS conference teams, while Washington desperately needs a good win under head coach Ty Willingham.
Why Fresno State Might Win:  Fresno State should be able to pound it with RB Dwayne Wright, the number three rusher in the nation who’s averaging 156 yards per game.  It might sound simplistic to just turn and hand him the ball, but the senior power back has been nothing short of sensational early in the season.  One week after running over, around and through Nevada, Wright ran for 154 yards on 29 carries to help the Bulldogs maintain a nine-minute time of possession advantage against Oregon. Washington hasn’t been able to slow down the run yet, and it won’t this week. 
Why Washington Might Win:  The Huskies can also run the ball ranking ninth in the country in rushing registering 252 yards per game.  Against San Jose State’s porous D, that’s easy to understand, but the Huskies ran for 204 yards against Oklahoma with a few big dashes to make it interesting.  QB Isaiah Stanback has to get involved as a threat early on to utilize his blazing speed and decent arm. By scrambling, he keeps backside defenders from closing too quickly on running backs Louis Rankin and Kenny James.
Who to Watch:  Containing a versatile quarterback like Stanback isn’t ever easy for opposing linebackers, which makes the play of Fresno State linebackers Dwayne Andrews and Alan Goodwin incredibly important.  These two have to stay disciplined and not be over-aggressive every time Stanback is on the move.
What Will Happen:  Fresno State had the best audition it could possibly have had facing Oregon’s dynamic Dennis Dixon last week.  However, Stanback isn’t throwing the ball nearly as well as Dixon, or as often. Once the Bulldog defense slows the Washington offensive unit, FSU QB Tom Brandstater should find play action to his liking while the Huskies chase the bruising Wright.  If Brandstater completes 60% of his throws and doesn’t turn the ball over (he threw two picks last week), the Bulldogs will win.

CFN Prediction
: Fresno State 34 ... Washington 28
... Line: Fresno State -3.5
Must See Rating:
(5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ...
2.5    

Arizona State (2-0) at Colorado (0-2), 7:00 EST, TBS, Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: Let’s get Arkansas vs. Boise State on the undercard, and have a reunion of the last four Boise State head coaches.  Colorado’s Dan Hawkins worked for Arizona State’s Dirk Koetter with the Broncos, and the two have remained tight ever since and are still considered two of the best offensive minds in college football.  Hawkins, however, has a lot more than reunions to worry about these days.  His Buffs are one of this year’s biggest disappointments having lost to Montana State and Colorado State, and his baby, the offense, has been brutal.  Everyone knew there’d be growing pains in Boulder, but this 0-2 start has been worse than expected and things could get much, much worse with road trips to Georgia and Missouri after the date with the Devils.  Arizona State rebounded nicely from a shaky opener with Northern Arizona by pounding Nevada last week in an impressive 52-21 win.  Isn’t it funny how no one is talking about the Sam Keller-Rudy Carpenter saga after Carpenter threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns in the rout? With Cal, Oregon and USC over the next three weeks, ASU has to try to win impressively to go into the most important part of its season with sky-high confidence.
Why Arizona State might win: Right now, Colorado looks good for about 10 –to-14 points a game, which Arizona State can average in a quarter…especially now that Carpenter has begun to percolate.  The Buffs are 117th nationally in total offense, and they haven’t exactly been facing the Pittsburgh Steelers of college football. With off-Broadway quarterbacks James Cox and Bernard Jackson as Hawkins’ only options, and the two still needing more seasoning, don’t anticipate an overnight turnaround.  The Sun Devils lead the nation in sacks, and will salivate after watching film of the Buff pass protection.
Colorado might win: As bad as the offense has been in Boulder, the defense has been pretty stingy under new coordinator Ron Collins.  Colorado has allowed just 33 points all year, and behind the edge rushing of Abraham Wright, is No. 4 in the country in sacks.  Koetter better forget about establishing a running game; the Buffs are allowing just over a yard per carry through two games.
Who to watch: Arizona State’s Zach Miller has nine catches to start the season doing nothing to alter the notion that he’s the most gifted tight end at this level and a likely early entry in the 2007 NFL Draft.  When the Sun Devils are looking to move the chains, he’ll continue to be Carpenter’s first option to open things up for the rest of the offense. For Colorado, it might be sink or swim time with Jackson. He has the mobility and the intangibles to be a dangerous weapon, but he has to get the offense moving after completing eight of 13 passes for 70 yards, and rushing for 30 yards and score, against Colorado State.             
What will happen: Colorado’s bringing a knife into a gunfight, and simply doesn’t have the weapons to go step for step with an Arizona State offense that’s heating up.  Against the Buffs last weekend, Colorado State’s Caleb Hanie was 20-of-23 passing, a precursor to what Carpenter’s going to do at Folsom Field.
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 34 ... Colorado 16 ... Line: Arizona State -10
Must See Rating:
(5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ...
     

Stephen F. Austin (0-2) at Arizona (1-1), 10:00 EST, Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: It’s back to the drawing board for an Arizona program that got humbled in Baton Rouge last weekend in a 45-3 loss. The Wildcats had hoped to use their trip to LSU to make a national statement, but the only message resonating Saturday night was that they’ve got a long way to go before joining the nation’s elite.  Mike Stoops has to use this week to right the ship with USC and the start of the Pac-10 season kicking off.  Stephen F. Austin began the year with high expectations, but has been a big disappointment, opening with losses to Tulsa and Division II Delta State.              
Why Stephen F. Austin might win: Arizona isn’t doing anything right on offense these days.  The passing game has accounted for just one touchdown and the running game ranks 114th in the country at just 51 yards a game.  If they can’t snap out their funk, and the Lumberjacks hang around in a low-scoring game, the Wildcats become susceptible to a gag of epic proportions.
Why Arizona might win: Running into a Bayou Buzzsaw has skewed Arizona’s defensive statistics.  They’ve actually got a deep and very talented defense that’ll be a mismatch for a Stephen F. Austin offense that’s yet to throw a touchdown pass and is 88th in I-AA in total offense.  With DE Louis Holmes applying pressure up front and Antoine Cason and Michael Johnson lurking in the secondary, Danny Southall will get picked multiple times.                       
Who to watch: Willie Tuitama’s season has gone from bad to worse.  The Arizona quarterback has struggled badly out of the gate, and now is battling the effects of a concussion he suffered early last week.  The Cats desperately need the Tuitama that lit a fire under the offense last year, but if he’s a scratch this week, backup Adam Austin gets a crack at a ‘Jack pass defense that’s pulling up the rear in I-AA.           
What will happen: After last week’s loss, Arizona needed this level of competition in the worst way.  The defense will dominate and the offense will use all four quarters to work on execution and run blocking.          
CFN Prediction: Arizona 48 ... Stephen F. Austin 3 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating:
(5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ...

Navy (2-0) at Stanford (0-2), 10:00 EST, Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: After the ribbons are cut on the New Stanford Stadium, fans will witness a sharp study in contrast between a pair of programs that have struggled in September.  While Navy has literally run the ball on 90% of its plays, Stanford leans heavily on the strong right arm of QB Trent Edwards and his talented receiver Evan Moore. The Middies are 2-0, but close calls with East Carolina and UMass have created cause for concern. Fortunately, this doesn’t appear to be the nasty battle it did when the schedules first came out. If not for Duke, Stanford might be the worst team playing in a BCS conference.  After getting shellacked by Oregon, the Cardinal blew a 20-point lead last week in a stunning loss to San Jose State.  Making matters worse, WR Mark Bradford may be done for the year with an injury. Hey, at least they’ve got new digs.
Why Navy might win: It’s no mystery what Navy will do when they have the ball, but that doesn’t mean Stanford will stop them.  The Cardinal D is 119th—that’s synonymous with dead last—in the country against the run surrendering a mind-boggling 320 yards a game.  In San Jose last week, they made Yonus Davis look like Terrell Davis.  Stanford’s top three tacklers are defensive backs, and they’ll be padding those numbers again this week.
Stanford might win: The only thing that’s gone right for the Cardinal has been the passing game.  Edwards is off to a strong start and will hook up early and often with the 6-7 Moore against an undersized Navy secondary that’s ranked 80th nationally in pass defense. If Stanford jumps out to a quick lead, in the new era of non-stop game clocks, the Midshipmen don’t have the aerial weapons to play catch up.
Who to watch: Bradford’s injury has opened the door for former prep star Richard Sherman to contribute in his first fall on the Farm.  The 6-3 true freshman had six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in his debut, and is one of the best all-around athletes on the team. Navy Head coach Paul Johnson hasn’t been happy with the play of quarterbacks Brian Hampton and Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who’ve been careless with the ball and unable to complete passes. Johnson used both options last week, and he might repeat that Saturday night if the attack isn’t crisper.
What will happen: Navy won’t stop Stanford’s passing game, and Stanford won’t stop Navy’s ground attack.  An Adam Ballard, fourth-quarter plunge into the end zone will continue the Cardinal’s nightmarish start to 2006.    
CFN Prediction: Navy 31 ... Stanford 30 ... Line: Stanford -3
Must See Rating:
(5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ... 2.5

Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions