Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week 3

While it gets the prime time slot, the Nebraska-USC battle isn't getting quite as much hype as some of the other clashes of titans. Even so, it might just turn out to be the biggest game of the day in terms of the national title hunt. Check back all day for recaps and thoughts on all the games on our Team Pages (in the dropdown above), Scoreboard, and team slots below on the home page.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St
Past Predictions: Week One | Week Two

How are the picks so far? SU 16-2 ... ATS 6-9-1

Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Nebraska (2-0) at USC (1-0) 8 pm EST ABC Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: Don't laugh. Don't snicker, don't sneer, don't guffaw. Ready? ... This might turn out to be the game for the national title. Fine, so there are about a bazillion other teams out there that would happily challenge that notion, but it's hard to ignore how Nebraska has become a balanced, championship-caliber team on both sides of the ball with a running game to help the ever improving passing attack. The defense has a defensive line on the verge of breaking out and a secondary that, well, more on that in a moment. Yeah, the two wins have come against Louisiana Tech and Nicholls State, but this still looks like a Husker team on the verge of huge things. With Texas looking vulnerable, check out the remaining Husker schedule and find the one, sure-thing loss: Troy, Kansas, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, Texas, at Oklahoma State, Missouri, at Texas A&M , Colorado. Sold yet? If Nebraska is good enough to be USC at USC, it's good enough to blow through the rest of its schedule on the way to a likely rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game. Of course, there's that little matter of getting past the nation's best team. No, it's not Ohio State, it's not Notre Dame, and it's not someone in the SEC. At the immediate moment, the most talented team in the land is in L.A. with an offense that'll be every bit as effective as previous versions and a defense that should be better than last year's. In other words, this game is a must watch in a weekend of must watch game.
Why Nebraska might win: It'll all be about tapping the Booty. Nebraska's defense led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss and has all the parts back, While the group hasn't been up-to-2005-snuff so far with only two sacks and ten tackles for loss, there have been some suggestions that the coaching staff didn't exactly turn the dogs loose over the first two weeks in order to keep things under wraps a little bit. USC QB John David Booty has been around for years, but he hasn't faced the pressure he'll see on Saturday outside of a few intense practices. If he's getting popped, the Huskers have a great shot at pulling off the upset. However, if Booty gets a wee bit of time to go through all his reads and let his receivers work deep ...
Why USC might win: ... the Trojans should be able to call their shot and score at will. Don't let the numbers fool you; Nebraska doesn't have the nation's 11th best pass defense. Nicholls State is a pure running team that failed to complete a pass last week in the 56-7 loss. Louisiana Tech wasn't exactly sharp in its passing game, but it came up with 238 yards. The Huskers might have blinding speed in the secondary, but they don't have a lot of experience and are still trying to make all the parts fit after injuries struck early. That's not a plus when facing the nation's best receiving corps.
Who to watch: Does USC have the defense to slow down the Nebraska offense? The overall talent is there, and the linebacking corps is out of this world, but top players are getting picked off by injuries. Starting DT Sedrick Ellis will be out for a while after undergoing knee surgery after suffering an injury in practice. That means Chris Barrett and Fili Moala, who have a little bit of experience, have to play like grizzled veterans. In the secondary, Taylor Mays will try to replace Josh Pinkard after the senior got knocked out for the year with a knee injury. Mays is an NFL talent waiting to blossom, but he's only a freshman and will be picked on right off the bat.
What will happen: This will be Nebraska's coming out party. The offense will put up big numbers and the defense will come up with a gem ... for three quarters. USC will make a few adjustments and will hit just enough home runs in the fourth quarter to get by with a tough, tough win.
CFN Prediction: USC 38 ... Nebraska 28 ... Line: USC -18
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ... 5 

Oklahoma (2-0) at Oregon (2-0) 3:30  pm EST ABC Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: The Pac 10 needs this. Badly. Everyone knows and respects USC, but it's been hard for anyone outside of the Pacific Time Zone to give two hoots about the rest of the conference. To be fair, it's not like the league has done anything to earn any recognition with losses in most of the high profile games. Cal got spanked by a Tennessee team that struggled the following week against Air Force, Washington State and Arizona each got thumped in their SEC road games, and Oregon lost to Oklahoma in last year's Holiday Bowl after being this close to making a BCS game. Outside of UCLA's date with Notre Dame, this is sort of it for the Pac 10 to get some love. OU has been shaky over the first two weeks and now has to deal with the toughest place to play in the Pac 10 in Autzen Stadium. Oregon is a great team that's battle tested and is playing well enough to come into this expecting a big win. Yes, this is a must-win for Oregon to jack the confidence through the roof going into nasty road dates at Arizona State and Cal over the following two weeks. OU gets a tune-up against Middle Tennessee before the Texas showdown. Everyone figured the Sooner offense would slip a little bit after losing QB Rhett Bomar, but most assumed the defense and the running of Adrian Peterson would make up for it. Peterson has been fine, but the defense hasn't been quite up-to-snuff even though it only allowed 37 points in the first two games. There have been turnovers from the O, inconsistencies, and a general lack of big playmaking from the D.
Why Oklahoma might win: Adrian Peterson. The best player in America rushed for 139 yards  and took a short pass 69 yards for a score against UAB, and he tore through Washington for 165 yards and two scores. While Oregon is defense on the defensive front, it couldn't handle Fresno State's Dwayne Wright who ran for 154 yards and a score on 29 carries. The depleted Duck secondary can't sell out on every play to stop Peterson, so suddenly-solid OU QB Paul Thompson should see plenty of good matchups to exploit.
Why Oregon might win: Where is the Oklahoma run defense? Quarterback was supposed to be an issue, and the offensive line was supposed to be a huge problem, but the defensive line was supposed to be among the best in America with too many great pass rushers to get on the field at the same time, and a stout interior that was expected to stop running games cold. UAB and Washington weren't consistent on the ground, but they were able to bust off some big runs and stay alive in tight games. If Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart is back in form after only playing one play against Fresno State due to an ankle injury, it might be a long day for OU. The last thing the Sooners need will be for Oregon to control the clock, the tempo, and the crowd, and the Duck running attack might just do that.
Who to watch: While the focus will be on the tailbacks, the real matchup will be the Oklahoma receivers vs. the Oregon secondary. Last week might have been the official coming out party for Oklahoma sophomore WR Malcolm Kelly. The speedster came on at the end of last year, catching seven passes for 79 yards against the Ducks, but he has grown into a more complete receiver as evidenced by a six-grab, 121-yard two touchdown day against the Huskies. Oregon wasn't exactly a rock in the defensive backfield, and now it has to go on without top corner Jackie Bates, who broke his ankle against Fresno State. That means it'll either be an experienced freshman, or safety Patrick Chang moving around to cover the OU receivers one-on-one. If Thompson can exploit this early and loosen things up, Peterson will end up running for 200 yards.
What will happen: Chalk this up to the home field advantage. Oklahoma just hasn't been solid enough to show that it can go into a road game like this and come through. Oregon QB Dennis Dixon will be effective, and the ground attack, with or without Stewart, will bust off at least two big runs in the shootout. 
CFN Prediction: Oregon 35 ... Oklahoma 31 ... Line: Oregon -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ... 4.5 

Baylor (1-1) at Washington State (1-1) 5 pm EST Saturday, September 16th
Why to watch: Both Baylor and Washington State are coming off lopsided wins over patsies and looking to get over .500 before league play begins.  Two months from now, this is one of those games that could be the difference between bowl eligibility and being home for the holidays with each team still needing to face their tough conference schedules.  After opening at Auburn, the Cougar offense got back on track at Idaho’s expense cranking out eight touchdowns and 637 yards of evenly distributed offense.  Alex Brink is a prolific passer flanked by a trio of seasoned receivers, led by home run hitter, Jason Hill and emerging star Michael Bumpus.  Baylor, too, can get move the ball through the air with Shawn Bell at the controls and Trent Shelton starting to shine in the new passing attack.  The two hooked up nine times last week for 158 yards and a touchdown.  There will be lots of passing numbers in what should be an entertaining test for both teams.
Why Baylor might win: The Bears have an underrated, veteran defense that’s good enough to derail the Cougar attack.  They’ve already registered 15 tackles for loss and four interceptions, and have surrendered just three touchdowns in two games.  With the pass-rushers to win the battle with a suspect Wazzu line, Brink could be forced into making several mistakes. The offense needs to capitalize on any and all opportunities.
Why Washington State might win: Offensive balance.  The Cougars have it.  The Bears don’t.  On third down or near the goal line, Washington State can get the tough yards, but Baylor has absolutely no running game averaging just 2.4 yards a carry and ranked 117^th in the nation in rushing offense. While that’s partly by design in the new attack, if Bell isn’t on, Baylor has no shot.
Who to watch: C.J. Wilson and Anthony Arline give Baylor one of the best cornerback tandems in the Big 12, and a pair of seniors that’ll press Hill, Bumpus and Chris Jordan from the opening series.  Wilson already has three interceptions, which ties him for tops in the nation. Hill has yet to break out with only six catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, but his presence has allowed Bumpus to flourish as a short-to-midrange target with 12 grabs for 92 yards and a score over the first two games.
What will happen: Both teams will make big plays through the air, but Baylor will learn that you can’t beat quality opponents on the road without a running game.  RB DeMaundray Woolridge will return from a deep thigh bruise and score a couple of short touchdown runs for the difference.     
CFN Prediction: Washington State 34 ... Baylor 20 ... Line: Washington State -13
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ... 3

Portland State (1-0) at California (1-1), 6:15 EST, Saturday, September 16^th
Why to watch: As I-AA opponents go, Portland State is about as tough as it can get these days, and probably not what Cal anticipated when it originally scheduled this game.  The Vikings are ranked, confident from wins over New Mexico and Northern Colorado, and yet to allow a touchdown.  The catalysts for the fast start have been QB Sawyer Smith and a quick, opportunistic defense that’s already created seven turnovers.  In a must-win situation, Cal did exactly what it had to last week manhandling Minnesota 42-17 behind a career day from QB Nate Longshore.  The win took some of the sting out of the opening day collapse in Knoxville and put the Bears back on the path to being a serious contender for USC’s Pac-10 title. This is the final tune-up before diving into the conference schedule against Arizona State next week.
Why Portland State might win: With a road win over New Mexico in the bank, Portland State is flying high as it heads to Berkeley.  The ninth-ranked I-AA scoring defense, led by LB Adam Hayward’s 25 tackles and four sacks, can keep the Vikings in the game long enough for Smith and the offense to hope it can get a few big breaks to capitalize on. The Bears have given up more than 250 yards passing in both games and will struggle to pressure a quarterback that’s yet to be sacked.
Why Cal might win: When the passing game gets cranking, Marshawn Lynch and the entire Bear offense is virtually impossible to slow down.  Longshore was magnificent a week ago throwing for four touchdowns and 300 yards while creating hope that the two-year search for Aaron Rodgers’ replacement has finally ended.  Unless the Vikings visiting Northern California this weekend are from Minnesota, Portland State, as good as it is, will be a minor roadblock for the Cal attack. There simply isn’t the overall speed to handle the Bear offense.
Who to watch: The only thing keeping WR DeSean Jackson from superstardom is consistency from his quarterback.  He got that Saturday and responded with seven catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns.  If Longshore doesn’t regress, Jackson is about to go on a tear that could wind up with some All-America recognition.
What will happen: Cal cleansed itself from the Tennessee loss and is ready to go on a roll.  Portland State is going to be a bear in the Big Sky, but this is a step up in competition that’s out of its league.            
CFN Prediction: California 45 ... Portland State 14 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Dancing with the Stars) ... 1.5           

Pac 10 Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2