Big Ten
Illinois
|
Indiana
|
Iowa
|
Michigan
|
Michigan State
|
Minnesota
Northwestern
|
Ohio State
|
Penn State
|
Purdue
|
Wisconsin
- Past Predictions:
Week One
|
Week Two |
Week Three
Big Ten Week
Four Fearless Predictions, Part 2
How'd we do so far? 28-5 straight
up, 14-11-1
ATS
Minnesota
(2-1)
at
Purdue
(3-0) 12 pm EST ESPN2
Saturday, Sept. 22
Why to watch:
Neither team figures to be in the hunt
for the Big Ten title, but this will
likely be vital once the Big Ten bowl
pecking order is determined. Purdue is
about as shaky a 3-0 as it gets needing
a huge second half to beat Indiana
State, overtime to beat Miami
University, and struggled to get by Ball
State. This ends a four-game home
stretch to start the season before going
on the road to face Notre Dame, Iowa and
Northwestern, so this might be a
must-win. The Gophers got their groove
back after getting crushed by California
by blasting poor Temple. In two wins,
Minnesota has outscored Temple and Kent
State by a score of 106-0, but things
will be far more difficult to start the
Big Ten season facing Michigan, Penn
State and Wisconsin after the trip to
West Lafayette.
Why Minnesota might win: It's not
like Purdue has faced Ohio State, Auburn
and USC, yet its defense appears to have
picked up where last season left off but
giving up over 1,200 yards in the first
three games. Minnesota isn't just a
running team this year; it has a little
bit of a passing attack with Bryan
Cupito bombing throwing four touchdown
passes against Temple and cranking out
243 yards (although it was a bad
performance) against Cal. The D might
not be great, but it's making big plays
forcing ten turnovers so far.
Why Purdue might win:
Purdue did what you're supposed to do
against bad teams; it won, and it
improved on what needed improving on. QB
Curtis Painter might be far from a
polished passer, but he got better over
the last three games despite throwing
five interceptions in the last two
games. The passing attack leads the Big
Ten cranking out 316 yards per game, and
Kory Sheets is providing excellent
balance on offense. The Gopher corners
had no prayer of staying with the
California receivers, and it'll have a
nightmare of a time with ...
Who to watch: ... Purdue's Dorien
Bryant. The junior exploded in the
opener against Indiana State, but has
been held from making huge plays over
the last two weeks despite catching five
passes. When he gets hot, he gets red
hot and should break out with a few big
plays if he sees a little bit of
one-on-one coverage. On the other side,
Logan Payne blew up last week with four
touchdown catches against Temple and has
turned into the team's go-to receiver.
He's not Bryant, and the Gophers would
prefer to pound the ball with its
running game, but he has the potential
to have a huge day against the soft
Boilermaker secondary.
What will happen: Each team will
throw plenty of haymakers and come up
with enough big plays to gain the
momentum at different times. Minnesota
will win the turnover battle and will
get just enough out of its ground game
to come away with the tough win in a
very good game.
CFN Prediction:
Minnesota 23 ... Purdue 20
... Line: Minnesota -2.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
2.5
Connecticut
(1-1)
at
Indiana
(2-1) 12 pm EST GamePlan
Saturday, Sept. 22
Why to watch:
This is a prove-it game for two two
teams coming off of wildly disappointing
losses. Connecticut played great on
defense in last week's 24-13 loss to
Wake Forest, but the offense made a few
huge mistakes and showed that it still
needs time before it'll be consistent.
Indiana had the game against Southern
Illinois well in hand before gagging in
the second half in a stunning 35-28
loss. With Wisconsin up next week, this
needs to be a must win for the Hoosiers.
UConn gets to deal with Navy's running
game next week before diving into Big
East play at South Florida.
Why Connecticut might win:
Southern Illinois outrushed Indiana 244
yards to 76. While the Hoosier running
game has been bad, the run defense was
atrocious when it needed to be stout
last week. It did a good job against
pedestrian Western Michigan and Ball
State ground games, but UConn's rushing
attack is explosive and extremely
effective with Terry Caulley, Donald
Brown, and Lou Allen each able to come
up with a big day. If they're motoring,
the pressure is off of QB D.J.
Hernandez, and the overall offensive
mistakes will be kept to a minimum.
Why Indiana might win:
IU should be fine as long as it's not
turning the ball over. It had the SIU
game well in hand before the mistakes
kicked in, and it struggled early
against Ball State with inconsistent
overall play and no defense. The
Hoosiers will win if they can put
together two good halves, but that's
asking for a whole bunch out of a young
team led by a freshman QB in Kellen
Lewis.
Who to watch: Don't go away when
each team is punting. Each team has been
horrible at kicking the ball, and each
team has explosive punt returners.
UConn's Larry Taylor leads the nation
with a 27-yard average, and he's also
growing into a steady receiver. Indian's
Tracy Porter took a return 86 yards for
a touchdown against Western Michigan,
but the real star is Lance Bennett,
who's way overdue to bust out. The
senior is way too good a kick and punt
returner to only average nine yards on
kickoffs and 0.67 on punt returns.
What will happen: Connecticut
will commit two big turnovers to keep
Indiana in the game, but the running
attack will end up controlling the game
and getting the win.
CFN Prediction:
Connecticut 27 ... Indiana 23
... Line: Indiana -2
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
2.5
Notre Dame
(2-1)
at
Michigan State
(3-0) 8 pm EST ABC Saturday, Sept.
22
Why to watch:
These two have played one of the most
entertaining and consistent series over
the last six games decided by seven
points or fewer. The Spartans have been
a major thorn in the Irish's side
winning seven of the last nine and come
into this looking for a signature win to
get the college football world to start
to take them seriously. Notre Dame saw
its big season crash with a resounding
thud in a 47-21 thud that wasn't as
close as the blowout final score might
indicate. Even so, things get easier,
much easier, over the next seven games
up until the USC showdown. In other
words, a win in East Lansing should mean
a 10-1 record and a spot secured in the
BCS no matter what happens against the
Trojans.
Why Notre Dame might win:
Michigan State's pass defense is
suspect. It's fine on the shorter plays,
but it has a nightmare of a time against
the deep ball, and it's getting worse.
It was ripped apart last week by Pitt
for 277 yards and two touchdowns, but it
was able to come up with two key picks.
The Spartan pass rush isn't nearly
dangerous enough to get the steady
pressure needed on QB Brady Quinn to
force the mistakes made against
Michigan. Quinn should be able to hit
the 300-yard mark without much of a
problem. You don't think the Irish
offense will be focused and fired up
after last week, do you?
Why Michigan State might win:
WR Matt Trannon. Notre Dame has faces
three wonderful receivers so far in
Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, Penn
State's Derrick Williams, and Michigan's
Mario Manningham. The suspect Irish
corners were able to keep Williams in
check, but got torched by Manningham and
had major problems with Johnson (until
Tech stopped throwing him the ball). The
6-6 Trannon ripped apart Eastern
Michigan for 151 yards and two touchdown
on 14 catches, and then was erased by
Pitt making a mere one grab for six
yards. Last year, Trannon torched the
Irish for 136 yards and two touchdowns.
If he does that again, MSU will win.
Who to watch: With the first pick
in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Green Bay
Packers select: Adrian Peterson. With
the second pick, the Oakland Raiders
select ... Quinn, or Michigan State QB
Drew Stanton? It'll take a major move by
someone else to be one of the first two
quarterbacks selected in next year's
draft over these two stars, and one of
them might end up going number one
overall. Quinn has the teachings of
Charlie Weis and the arm and toughness,
while Stanton has the size, accuracy,
and mobility. Quinn has thrown for a ton
of yards so far and has been great at
getting Jeff Samardzija and Rhema
McKnight the deep ball, but there's a
question about how he can handle blitzes
and a steady pass rush after struggling
against Michigan. Stanton hasn't really
been tested yet this year, but he's been
terrific coming off a brilliant 105-yard
rushing, 198-yard passing day against
Pitt. He's a legitimate Heisman
candidate who needs a high profile
game to show off. This is it.
What will happen: Michigan State
is the real deal, but Notre Dame will
bounce back in a big way with a
brilliant performance by Quinn as he
gets back in the Heisman race.
CFN Prediction:
Notre Dame 34 .. Michigan State 27
... Line: Notre Dame -4.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
4
Big Ten Week
Four Fearless Predictions, Part 2