Big Ten
Illinois
|
Indiana
|
Iowa
|
Michigan
|
Michigan State
|
Minnesota
Northwestern
|
Ohio State
|
Penn State
|
Purdue
|
Wisconsin
- Past Predictions:
Week One
|
Week Two |
Week Three
Big Ten Week
Four Fearless Predictions, Part 2
How'd we do so far? 28-5 straight
up, 14-11-1
ATS
Big Ten Game of
the Week
Penn State
(2-1)
at
Ohio State
(3-0) 3:30 pm EST ABC
Saturday, Sept. 22
Why to watch:
There were better games in 2005 than
Penn State's 17-10 win over Ohio State,
but there weren't any with more big hits
and there weren't any better defensive
slugfests. Players on each team said all
off-season that they didn't obsess about
this game or the other team, but the
rematch was clearly one that made their
skin tingle a little bit. The number one
ranked Buckeyes have an interesting
start to its Big Ten season with this
game followed up by a beartrap of a date
at Iowa next week. With the way Penn
State is playing, if Buckeyes really are
the nation's best team, this is a game
they must dominate. The Nittany Lions
were fine in wins over Akron and
Youngstown State, but nothing special.
The defense isn't close to being the
killer of the past few seasons, and
there's not enough precision to an
offense who's running game isn't nearly
as effective as the stats might
indicate. However, this could be the big
turnaround moment for their season. A
win in Columbus would erase all memories
of the blowout loss at Notre Dame, and
would set the table for a strong run at
the Big Ten title with the toughest game
left on the slate, Michigan, at home.
Why Penn State might win: The
Nittany Lion defense might not be the
best in the nation, but it's still
plenty good. The linebacking corps is
still amazing, the defensive line is
doing a fantastic job of getting into
the backfield, and secondary, while
young and making several mistakes, has
the potential to grow into something
special by the end of the year. Texas
was able to come up with three sacks of
Troy Smith, but there wasn't nearly
enough consistent pressure throughout
the game. If the front four can be
disruptive, Penn State has a great shot
of sticking around for four quarters.
However ...
Why Ohio State might win:
... Penn State needed to get pressure on
Notre Dame's Brady Quinn, didn't, and
got torched. The corners might have
talent, but they're still prone to
getting burned by veteran receivers. No
receiving tandem is playing more
effectively at the moment than Ohio
State's combo of Ted Ginn and Anthony
Gonzalez, who each ranks in the top 25
in the nation in receiving yards. The
Buckeye offensive line has been dominant
over the first three games. What was an
advantage last year (the Penn State D
line over the Ohio State O line) is now
an advantage the other way.
Who to watch: To beat the
Buckeyes, Penn State has to match big
pass play for big pass play. Anthony
Morelli has the big arm, and he has the
receivers to hit a few home runs with.
Now he needs to be more consistent after
completing a mere 11 of 27 passes in an
uninspiring performance against
Youngstown State. He has only thrown one
touchdown pass over the last two games,
and he hasn't done nearly enough to get
the ball to Derrick Williams. The super-soph
has more carries (15) than catches (7)
and hasn't had a breakout game yet. If
he can somehow be the statistical equal
of Ted Ginn as a receiver and a kick
returner, Penn State will have a shot.
What will happen: Penn State is
zero for six at Ohio State since joining
the Big Ten hasn't won there since 1978.
The streak will continue even though
it'll be a tight game after three
quarters.
CFN Prediction:
Ohio State 26 ... Penn State 13
... Line: Ohio State -16.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
4
Northwestern
(2-1)
at
Nevada
(1-2) 8 pm EST ESPN2 Friday, Sept.
22
Why to Watch:
The Wolf Pack put one in the win column
last week with a solid 28–10 victory
over previously undefeated Colorado
State, while Northwestern rebounded from
a loss to D-IAA New Hampshire with a
less-than-scintillating 14-6 victory
over Eastern Michigan. With both teams
having gained some confidence, each one
should come into the game in Reno
mentally and physically prepared to win
a key non-conference game to bolster
bowl game hopes. Northwestern needs
this to prove that the first year of the
Pat Fitzgerald era is headed in the
right direction, while Nevada needs a
little bit of national attention. The
college football world will be watching
on Friday night, so each team has to
perform in the spotlight.
Why Northwestern Might Win: The
Northwestern defense shut down Eastern
Michigan’s spread attack, holding it to
47 yards passing and 87 yards on the
ground. Nevada’s “Pistol” offense isn’t
the spread, but it has a lot of similar
traits. The Wildcats are ranked 16th
in the nation in total defense thanks
mostly to playing well against the run.
If NU can stuff the Pack on the ground,
it should stay in the game, unless ...
Why Nevada Might Win: Last week,
Nevada QB Jeff Rowe played like the star
he’s supposed to be completing 19 of 22
for 210 yards while running 13 times for
65 yards. Northwestern will face a
number of dual threat QBs in the Big Ten
this season, but to this point, it
hasn’t seen a passer like Rowe. Its
untested secondary will come under fire
in a big way.
Who to Watch: Northwestern CB
Deante Battle and Marquice Cole have to
be rock stars. Battle picked up an
interception and two other PBUs in the
win over EMU, while Cole is on the
Thorpe award watch list. Rowe will take
advantage of aggressive corners, as he
attempted to do against Fresno State’s
Marcus McCauley early in the game, so
Battle and Cole have to be disciplined.
Nevada’s linebacking corps, led by
Joshua Mauga and Ezra Butler, will have
to slow down Northwestern’s dynamic and
versatile RB Tyrell Sutton to keep the
Wildcat offense under wraps.
What Will Happen: The Wolf Pack
hasn’t lost at home for six straight
games and Rowe should lead the offense
with a pass/run performance that should
help make it seven in a row.
Northwestern QBs Mike Kafka and Andrew
Brewer aren’t consistent enough to win a
game like this.
CFN Prediction:
Nevada
27 ... Northwestern 14
... Line: Nevada -7.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
2
Wisconsin
(3-0)
at
Michigan
(3-0) 12 pm EST ESPN
Saturday, Sept. 22
Why to watch:
While this won't get anywhere near the
hype or publicity of the Penn State -
Ohio State game, it'll be more
entertaining. The last five games
between the two, going back to 1999,
have been decided by seven points or
fewer, with the Badgers winning a 23-20
classic in Madison last year that
signaled the end of the two-year hiatus
in this great matchup. The jury's still
out on a Wisconsin team that went
through the motions against Bowling
Green, Western Illinois and San Diego
State on the way to an easy 3-0 record.
The defense has been terrific, but the
offense hasn't set the world on fire.
Michigan has gone from being an
underground dark horse in the race for
the BCS title to a top contender after
the 47-21 destruction of Notre Dame.
Will Lloyd Carr's crew suffer a letdown
or will it take the momentum and run
with it?
Why Wisconsin might win: While
the offense doesn't have the firepower
to keep pace with Chad Henne, Mike Hart
and the boys, the Badger defense should
be good enough to avoid the type of run
that Michigan went on against Notre
Dame. This is a no-name, hard-hitting
group with, arguably, the best front
seven in the Big Ten. If Wisconsin can
avoid turnovers, capitalize on all
mistakes, and continue winning the field
position battle with its excellent
punting and punt return games, it has a
shot.
Why Michigan might win:
Offensively, this is a horrible matchup
for the Badgers. The offense has been
all RB P.J. Hill so far, but Michigan
has the nation's number one run defense
highlighted by holding Notre Dame to 28
yards. The Wolverine defensive front is
great at getting into the backfield with
12 sacks and 24 tackles for loss in the
first three games, and that's not a plus
for UW QB John Stocco. The senior has
been shaky, at best, so far having a
hard time getting in tune with his new
receiving corps and not ever looking
comfortable over the first three games.
Under pressure, Stocco will make
mistakes.
Who to watch: Wisconsin must
dominate the field position battle to
win, and that means junior punter Ken
DeBauche has to continue to be terrific.
With a 41.8 yard-per-kick average,
DeBauche has been a steady, occasionally
clutch weapon who has bailed the Badgers
out of trouble several times so far.
Zach Hampton is growing into the role as
the main punt returner coming off an
excellent day against San Diego State.
His counterpart, Steve Breaston, finally
started to break out against Notre Dame
returning four punts for 64 yards. While
he's been a bust over the the course of
his career as a receiver, he leads the
team with 12 grabs and has become a nice
short to midrange target.
What will happen: Either Michigan
comes down from its statement blowout
over the Irish and slogs through a
sloppy win, or it's razor sharp and
brimming with confidence and wins by 24.
Expect the Wolverines to win mainly
because Wisconsin will have a nightmare
of a time scoring.
CFN Prediction:
Michigan 23 ... Wisconsin 10
... Line: Michigan -14.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
4
Iowa
(3-0)
at
Illinois
(1-2) 12 pm EST GamePlan
Saturday, Sept. 22
Why to watch:
Iowa survived an overtime scare and
seven cracks from inside the two against
Syracuse, and got past in-state
arch-nemesis Iowa State to get to 3-0
for the first time in three years. With
the epic showdown with Ohio State coming
up next week, the Hawkeyes will look to
get past a struggling Illinois team
that's playing every bit like the young,
inexperienced team it is. Iowa beat
Syracuse at Syracuse 20-13, and then SU
beat Illinois at Illinois 31-21 in a
game that was much more of a beating
than the final score might indicate. The
Illini have scored just seven points
before garbage time in the last few
games and needs some sign of life in
what's quickly becoming a disastrous
season. An upset win in the Big Ten
opener would do wonders.
Why Iowa might win: The Illinois
offensive line is doing absolutely
nothing. It got a decent push for the
running game against Syracuse, but it's
giving up way too many sacks and there's
been no time whatsoever for the
quarterbacks to operate on a consistent
basis. Even though Iowa's defense isn't
crushing and killing when it comes to
getting to the quarterback, it has been
solid with nine sacks in the first three
games. The Hawkeye D line should
dominate.
Why Illinois might win:
It's not like the Iowa offense is
humming. It's been productive when it's
needed to be, and Drew Tate has done a
great job of working with his new
receivers to make some big plays, and
the offense is cranking out 392 yards
per game, but it hasn't shown off much
explosiveness yet. This is the ultimate
sandwich game for the Hawkeyes and they
might have a big problem focusing on the
task at hand and not mentally
gameplanning for the Buckeyes.
Who to watch: And the Illinois
quarterback is ...? Senior Tim Brasic
has been the starter, and he hasn't been
bad, but he hasn't done much to lead the
offense and put points up on the board.
Top recruit Juice Williams has been
thrown into the fire early on and has
shown off his big arm and poise that
goes beyond his youth. Head coach Ron
Zook doesn't want to put Williams out to
get killed behind a porous line, but he
wants to get his young star of the
future as much work as possible. After
completing two-of-ten throws against
Rutgers, he hit nine of 16 passes
against Syracuse with two long touchdown
passes. Both will likely end up playing.
What will happen: It'll take at
least a half for Iowa to get the job
done, but it'll dominate late with the
offense converting at least two key
turnovers for backbreaking scores.
CFN Prediction:
Iowa 38 ... Illinois 16
... Line: Iowa -21.5
Must See Rating: (5
skip the birth of your first born - 1
The Janice Dickenson Modeling Agency) ...
2
Big Ten Week
Four Fearless Predictions, Part 2
