Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week 5

Preview and predictions for the week five Pac 10 games

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St
Past Predictions: Week One | Week Two | Week Three
Week Four

How are the picks so far? SU 27-4 ... ATS 10-15-2

Week Five Pac 10 Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Oregon (3-0) at Arizona State (3-1) 3:30 PM EST  ABC Saturday September 30th
Why to watch: Considering what it’s had to listen to during the bye week, Oregon can’t wait to get back on the field.  Lost in the furor succeeding the Oklahoma officiating fiasco two weeks ago is the fact that the Ducks are a pretty darn good football team with the potential to author a very special season.  Behind an exciting offense, they’ve risen to No. 12 in the Coaches’ Poll with a chance of delivering the knockout blow this week to one of the four teams with a realistic shot at a Pac-10 title.  Arizona State is looking to pick up the pieces after getting destroyed by Cal in Berkeley.  It’s not even October, yet the Sun Devils are staring at a crucial pitchfork-in-the-road game that’ll go a long way to determining which direction the 2006 season takes.       
Why Oregon might win: The Ducks had to be frothing at the mouth watching Cal move at will on the Arizona State defense last weekend.  They’re a similarly diverse bunch that leads the Pac-10 in total offense ranking second in scoring offense and is equally effective on the ground or through the air.  The speed of RB Jonathan Stewart and quickness of QB Dennis Dixon will be too much for a Devil D that consistently looked a step two slow in Berkeley.
Why Arizona State might win: The lone silver lining for Arizona State in last week’s loss was the hard running of Ryan Torain, who’ll be much more than a decoy against a pliable Oregon run defense that’s allowing 171 yards a game.  The Sun Devils will look to control the clock with Torain and Keegan Herring, taking some pressure off struggling QB Rudy Carpenter, who’s thrown six picks in the last two games.
Who to watch: At 6-5 and 245 pounds, Jaison Williams may be built like a defensive end, but he’s coming of age as Dixon’s first option in the passing game.  The sophomore has had 15 catches over the last two games, and figures to be a handful for a Sun Devil secondary that got burned a week ago for four touchdowns passes.
What will happen: Oregon is cresting.  Arizona State is overrated.  Until Carpenter regains his confidence, the Sun Devils don’t have enough firepower to go step-for-step with these Ducks.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 35 ... Arizona State 27 ... Line: Oregon -2
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip) ... 4   

California (3-1) at Oregon State (2-1) 4:00 PM EST  Saturday September 30th
Why to watch: In the first Pac-10 showdown of 2006, the Bears obliterated Arizona State 49-21 to become a bona fide contender to USC’s league crown, while jolting the Sun Devils back to reality.  Cal has spent the last three weeks eradicating all that went wrong in the opener at Tennessee and solidifying its spot in the polls.  All’s well in Berkeley these days, thanks to the play of red-hot quarterback Nate Longshore and a defense with an appetite for turnovers.  Oregon State has been a product of its competition, bullying Eastern Washington and Idaho, but getting repeatedly spanked by Boise State in front of national TV audience.  The Beavers can alter their reputation this week by shocking heavily-favored Cal for a second straight year.
Why Cal might win: The Bears now have that offensive trinity that every attack craves and every defense fears.  Longshore, RB Marshawn Lynch and WR DeSean Jackson give Cal a playmaker at each skill position, which explains the Bears’ 44-point scoring average during the current three-game winning streak.  In its only game versus a credible offense, Oregon State allowed 340 yards rushing, transforming Boise State RB Ian Johnson into an overnight star.
Why Oregon State might win: Beaver RB Yvenson Bernard has all the tools to victimize a suspect Cal run defense, while keeping the opposing offense pacing on the sidelines.  The 94^th-ranked Bear unit got burned for 237 yards last Saturday, something Bernard is capable of duplicating behind a physical, veteran offensive line.
Who to watch: With its bevy of stars on offense, it’s easy to forget that Cal has a few studs on defense as well.  CB Daymeion Hughes, in particular, has started the season as if he plans to end it with a war chest of individual honors.  Hughes, who’s already got five picks and touchdowns in each of the last two games, will be following the eyes of mistake-program Matt Moore every time the quarterback drops back to pass.
Who will happen: Conference road games are often landmines, but Oregon State doesn’t have the defensive speed or stoppers in the secondary to put the brakes on this Cal freight train.
CFN Prediction: California 41 ... Oregon State 21 ... Line: California -9
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip) ... 3   

USC (3-0) at Washington State (3-1) 7:00 PM EST  Saturday September 30th
Why to watch: The USC program that had become synonymous in recent years with aerial attacks and point-a-minute offenses now resembles something straight out of the John McKay era.  A less combustible Trojan team is winning football games in 2006 with a straight ahead running game and a nasty defense.  Whatever the formula, it’s been working so far.  On a team that gets gutted by the NFL every spring, a spate of injuries this month is going to really test USC’s depth.  After losing its opener at Auburn, Washington State has regrouped with wins over Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. While that’s hardly a murderers’ row, the team will take all the wins it can get after missing out on a bowl bid last year after a slew of close losses.  Tommy Tuberville called the Cougars one of the most athletic teams he’s faced in some time, and they’ll need every ounce of it in this step up in competition.
Why USC might win: The high-powered Cougar passing game is about to get neutralized by a Trojan defense that’s getting stingier each week.  The Rey Maualuga-led linebackers will shutdown the Wazzu running game, while the pass rush harasses QB Alex Brink into mistakes.  Through three games, USC is No. 6 nationally in total defense, allowing a mere ten points in the first three quarters of those games.
Washington State might win: Unlike the days when Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush were in town, USC doesn’t possess that knockout punch that paralyzed lesser opponents.  A shoulder sprain to star pass-catcher Dwayne Jarrett will hinder the offense further, even if he tries to suit up.  The Cougars can hang with the Trojans long enough for WR Jason Hill to get behind the corners and pop a momentum-shifting play.   
Who to watch: The answer to the eight-month question of who’ll be the Trojan feature back appears to be Emmanuel Moody.  The true freshman has emerged from a crowded field, picking up 21 carries, 130 yards and his first career touchdown Saturday night.  If John David Booty and the passing game are tentative again, Moody will be the offensive workhorse in Pullman.  
What will happen: Bolstered by the home crowd and a slow start from USC, Wazzu will be within one score until USC builds distance with a defensive touchdown late in the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: USC 31 ... Washington State 16 ... Line: USC -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip) ... 3   

Week Five Pac 10 Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games