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SEC Fearless Predictions , Week 6, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 28, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week six SEC games, Part 2


SEC
East  Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State
- Part SEC Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5

How are the picks so far? SU: 34-4 ... ATS: 19-14-1

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 6, Part 2
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Duke (0-4) at Alabama (3-2) 7:00 PM EST GamePlan Saturday October 7th
Why to Watch:  Duke travels to Tuscaloosa to begin one of the most brutal three game stretches in recent memory.  Florida State and Miami are next on the schedule, but, suffice to say, the Blue Devils won’t be peeking ahead to their ACC foes, especially after last week’s 37-0 loss to Virginia.  Alabama is reeling as well, trying to recover from two road losses in a row – Arkansas in overtime and Florida last week.  With the Tide needing a win in the worst way, the visit from the Blue Devils couldn’t come at a better time.
Why Duke Might Win:  The Alabama defense isn’t the dominant unit that it was last year.  Typically ranked in the top ten in most major defensive categories, the Tide is ranked 29th in the nation in total defense, giving up 280 yards and 17 points per game.  Against that Tide defense, Duke true freshman QB Thaddeus Lewis will try to establish the controlled passing game to keep the Tide offense off the field.
Why Alabama Might Win:  Although Bama QB John Parker Wilson threw three interceptions against Florida, his production has given this offense a much needed balance.  With Wilson at the helm, Alabama is averaging 234 yards per game through the air, while Duke is the 74th ranked pass defense in the nation.  For as good as Wilson has thrown the football, RB Ken Darby is the key.  He found his 2005 form and ran like a man possessed at Florida.  Behind Wilson and Darby, the Bama offense will completely frustrate an improved Duke defense.
Who to Watch:  Alabama WR DJ Hall and Keith Brown have caught 47 passes this season and are becoming one of the better WR duos in the SEC.  Both Hall and Brown have been banged up in recent weeks, but it hasn’t shown in their play on the field.  Facing Duke’s All ACC CB John Talley will be a great test for these two, but one of them will avoid Talley altogether. Expect Wilson to pick on Talley’s opposite number, attacking CB Deonto McCormick throughout the game.
What Will Happen:  The Blue Devils had five sacks against Virginia, but they won’t get near Wilson in this matchup.  The sophomore will throw for 275 yards and three TDs, while Darby will get 100+ yards on the ground against the weary Blue Devil defense.
CFN Prediction
: Alabama 45 ... Duke 13 ... Line: Alabama -28.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ...
2 

South Carolina (3-2) at Kentucky (3-2)  7 PM EST ESPN2 Saturday October 7th
Why to Watch: South Carolina gained more respect in a 24-17 nationally televised defeat to Auburn than it did in its three wins (Miss State, Wofford, Florida Atlantic) combined, and now it has to go on a little bit of a run with the supposedly easy part of the schedule up with Kentucky this week and Vanderbilt next week with home dates with Arkansas and Middle Tennessee still out there. Kentucky has been better than expected with a solid offense with a bit of big play capability. There are enough potential wins ahead (Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and UL Monroe) to reasonably hope for a bowl bid, but a home victory over South Carolina would surely help the cause.
Why South Carolina Might Win: Kentucky's defense isn't just bad, it's next level bad with things getting a bit worse this week with DT Ricky Abren likely out with a wrist problem and injuries to key reserve ends Corey Peters and Jamil Paris leaving the line extremely thin. Against the nation's second worst defense (just ahead of Ball State), the suddenly balanced USC offense should be able to move the ball as well as it has all season.
Why Kentucky Might Win: Despite the defensive issues, UK is generating good pressure from several areas and forces a ton of mistakes with 14 takeaways so far. While the Wildcats haven't run well so far, Rafael Little should be back from a lingering knee problem to provide some pop against a consistently bad run defense. UK can air it out a bit, so any production from Little and the ground game should mean big all-around numbers.
Who to Watch: It'll be the nation's leading punting team vs. the nation's sixth best punt return team. Ryan Succop has been blasting the ball for the Gamecocks averaging 45.8 yards per bomb, while the return of Little should help the Wildcats boost their 18.44-yard-per return average. Of course, all eyes will be on the quarterbacks with UK's Andre Woodson coming into his own with 14 touchdown passes, including four against Central Michigan last week, and only two interceptions battling the hot Syvelle Newton, who has seven scoring passes in his last two games and did a fantastic job of moving the ball on the nasty Auburn defense.
What Will Happen: Watch out for the possible upset. Rich Brooks will never outcoach Steve Spurrier, but he does have the weapons to put up points against a USC defense that might be on letdown alert after the Auburn game. The Gamecocks will get a few big plays from Sidney Rice against the porous UK secondary, but not enough of them.
CFN Prediction
: Kentucky 24 ... South Carolina 22 ... Line: South Carolina -7
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 2.5
 

Tennessee (4-1) at Georgia (5-0) 7:45 PM EST ESPN Saturday October 7th
Why to Watch: It's statement time in the SEC. Georgia can justify its high ranking after two lousy outings against Colorado and Ole Miss, while Tennessee can stay alive in the SEC title race, after the loss to Florida in the conference opener, with a big road win. Outside of the 21-20 loss to the Gators, the Vols have been incredible with a frightening blend of explosion and consistency on offense, while the defense has improved since almost gagging against Air Force. Georgia has been less than stellar as it tries to find something on offense that works. The defense leads the nation in points allowed and is playing at a national title level, but the O has been awful. With Vanderbilt and Mississippi State ahead before the Cocktail-Not-A-Cocktail Party against the Gators, the Dawgs will likely be 8-0 with a win.
Why Tennessee Might Win: Forgetting Georgia's issues at quarterback, the running game has been just as much of a concern. Kregg Lumpkin has run well as the starter, but he's not getting the ball enough to be the type of workhorse the Vols will have to worry about for 28 carries. The receiving corps has been flat-out awful. That's partly due to the quarterback play, but the corps isn't doing anything to help make the situation better. If Tennessee can get up early, Georgia doesn't have the firepower to come back. On the other side of the ball, Georgia's defense might statistically be fantastic, but it hasn't faced an offense with a pulse.
Why Georgia Might Win: The D really is playing well. The Vol running attack was able to rumble on Cal and Memphis, but was stoned for -11 yards by Florida. Yeah, Georgia hasn't dealt with a real passing game yet, but it faced several good runners and is still only allowing 100 yards per game on the ground. The pass rush should bother Erik Ainge and force him to hurry his throws, and he will give up at least one interception. Last week against Memphis was his first game without throwing a pick after pitching  at least one in each of the first four games including two against the Gators.
Who to Watch: Who ever thought Joe Tereshinski might be the savior of the Georgia offense? It's not quite fair to dog Matthew Stafford and Joe Cox since the receivers aren't providing any help, but neither quarterback option has produced since Tereshinski went down with an ankle injury against South Carolina in the second game of the season. Now the senior quarterback is expected to start with Stafford and Cox playing a role off the bench if needed. Tereshinski isn't going to throw for 300 yards, but he's likely to manage the game better than the freshmen have.
What Will Happen: Tennessee will show that it deserves to be considered among the ten best teams in the country. It'll be a defensive struggle early, but the Vol offense will connect on two big plays to break the game open. Sort of. Don't expect a high scoring affair.
CFN Prediction
: Tennessee 19 ... Georgia 16 ... Line: Tennessee -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Rachael Ray) ... 4.5
 


SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 6
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