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Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Week 7

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 5, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week seven Big 12 games


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6


How'd we do so far? 37-5 straight up, 16-18-2 ATS 

Week 7 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Big 12 Game of the Week

Missouri (6-0) at Texas A&M (5-1)  3:30 PM EST ABC Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: Missouri took a huge step towards national respectability with an impressive 38-21 win at Texas Tech last week, and now it can firmly establish itself as a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 title with a victory in College Station. Slowly creeping up the rankings, Mizzou still isn't quite getting much in the way of overall attention with many still adopting a wait-and-see attitude for a team that has only one win over a likely bowl team. A&M overcame a heartbreaking loss to the Red Raiders to beat Kansas 21-18 with a Jorvorskie Lane touchdown run in the final minute, and it can now show that it's the real deal with what would be, by far, its most impressive win yet. The Aggies are still in the Big 12 title chase, but they can't afford a home loss with Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas still to go, while the Tigers get a home date with Oklahoma in a few weeks to go along with a road trip to Nebraska.
Why Missouri Might Win: Can A&M handle a decent running game? Pass defense was a problem last year, but that appears to have been rectified somewhat, while the run defense was surprisingly soft against Army and allowed 128 yards to KU's Jon Cornish last week. By far, Missouri has the most balanced offense the Aggies have faced yet with a line that's great at protecting QB Chase Daniel and better at blowing open holes for the running game. When in doubt, Mizzou can simply pound the ball, however ...
Why Texas A&M Might Win: ... what's going to happen when someone bangs the running game on the Tigers? Colorado, Ohio, and Ole Miss have great backs and offenses geared around running the ball, but they're not actually doing it with any effectiveness. Texas A&M is going to beat on the Tiger front four with a line that's playing well, and a big back in Lane that should be able to control the clock. Missouri's defense relies on big plays generated on consistent pressure into the backfield, but the A&M line's also doing a great job in pass protection. As long as A&M doesn't lose the turnover battle, it should be able to keep Mizzou from exploding.
Who to Watch: Lane is getting all the attention because he's leading the nation with 13 touchdown runs, but he's not being used as a workhorse with only one game this year with more than 12 carries. Top recruit Mike Goodson has been getting around eight carries a game averaging over six yards per pop and is overdue to start getting more work. With Courtney Lewis banged up, expect Goodson to be used more and more as the Aggie version of Reggie Bush getting the bal as a receiver as well as a runner. If he can do a better job of protecting the ball, he could be the offense's X factor as the year goes on.
What Will Happen: Texas A&M will play well, but Missouri will once again be way too rock-solid on both sides of the ball and way too effective defensively. The Tigers really are that good.
CFN Prediction
: Missouri 30 ... Texas A&M 21 ... Line: Missouri -1.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 4

Iowa State (3-3) at Oklahoma (3-2)  12:30 PM EST Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: Each team is coming off a tough division loss that crippled Iowa State's Big 12 title hopes and severely crimped Oklahoma's. The Cyclones got whacked 28-14 at home against Nebraska and still has nasty games against Texas Tech and Missouri to deal with, while the Sooners lost 28-10 to Texas and still has to go to Missouri and Texas A&M and hosts Texas Tech. It might seem like OU has lost its swagger and is on the road to being an also-ran for a second straight season, it's still not out of Big 12 championship hunt with Texas still having to play tough road games at Texas Tech and Nebraska. Iowa State could desperately use an impressive win to get its program back on track and take a big step forward under Dan McCarney. While it seems like the Cyclones have had some strong wins over the years, beating OU would be the best one since a 36-31 victory over Iowa in early 2002.
Why Iowa State Might Win: Bret Meyer. Iowa State is hopelessly outmatched on both sides of the ball, but the Cyclone junior quarterback is the one X factor who could control the game by himself with the ability to come up with a special performance. Oregon's Dennis Dixon isn't the runner Meyer is, but he's a similar player with his ability to get hot for stretches and to push the ball deep. If he could throw for 341 yards and two scores, and run for 34 yards and a touchdown, on the Sooner D, Meyer can do a little of the same. the Sooner secondary will give up a few big plays.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: The Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular season games since early 1999 and have been tremendous under Bob Stoops of following up losses with blowout wins. Iowa State might be 3-3, but it's as shaky a 3-3 as it gets needing last second heroics to beat Toledo, UNLV and Northern Iowa. In other words, this isn't exactly a juggernaut Cyclone team. The offensive line isn't nearly strong enough to push around a struggling OU defensive line that shouldn't have problems getting into the backfield (finally), while the OU offense should be able to rumble at will. Nebraska ran for 251 yards last week; Adrian Peterson should crank out a 200-yard day.
Who to Watch: Where are the Oklahoma defensive stars? DE Calvin Thibodeaux and C.J. Ah You have yet to register a sack, and All-America linebacker Rufus Alexander has hardly been dominant with just five tackles against Texas and just one sack on the season. Easily one of the biggest disappointments of the season, the Sooner defense has to use this game and next week's home date against Colorado to start making more big plays, forcing more turnovers, and being more disruptive or else the final stretch could get ugly.
What Will Happen: Oklahoma will crank out 500 yards of total offense and blow out an Iowa State that's not close to playing up to its potential.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma 34 ... Iowa State 17 ... Line: Oklahoma -19
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 3
  

Oklahoma State (3-2) at Kansas (3-3)  2 PM EST Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: It's the Big 12 heartbreak bowl with Kansas losing to Texas A&M 21-18 last week on a last-minute Jorvorskie Lane touchdown run and Oklahoma collapsing 31-27 to Kansas State after allowing two touchdowns in the final three minutes. OSU desperately needs this win to keep bowl hopes alive with the big boys from the South and Nebraska from the North still to face. Kansas has a much easier road until the season-ender at Missouri, but it can't take any game for granted. These two have played fun, exciting games throughout the season and could battle in the most entertaining Big 12 matchup of the day.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Kansas manages to stay close with everyone, good and bad. Sure, it pushed Nebraska to overtime and battled with Texas A&M down to the wire, but it also had a hard time putting away UL Monroe and lost to a bad Toledo team. In other words, KU plays to the level of its competition. For a young Oklahoma State squad playing on the road, it needs all the breaks it can get, and KU should provide them in the form of turnovers giving it away 16 times so far this year compared to only seven giveaways by the Cowboys.
Why Kansas Might Win: Oklahoma State has beaten .... um, uh, Arkansas State? Florida Atlantic? Missouri State?! Whoopee. The defense that looked so good in the three cupcake wins has been shredded over the last two games giving up 509 yards to Houston and 357 to Kansas State, while making Wildcat freshman QB Josh Freeman looking like Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb rolled up into one in crunch time. Kansas has the offense to hang 400+ yards and 30 points on the board if all the parts are clicking, like they have at various times this year, so if the D can not give up too many big plays and can slow down the Cowboy running game, it should be able to come away with the win.
Who to Watch: KU head coach Mark Mangino has implemented a no-practice-no-play policy, but banged up QB Kerry Meier will play through his injured shoulder. How long can he last? Backup Adam Barmann was terrific against Nebraska throwing for 405 yards in the overtime loss, but completed 13 of 31 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M with too many sprayed passes and way too many misfires. That's why the offense will be Jon Cornish, Jon Cornish, Jon Cornish. The senior has gone for over 100 yards in every game but one, rushing for 89 yards against Toledo, and will be fed the ball at least 30 times.
What Will Happen: Kansas will have to fight through another nail-biter, but will finally pull away in the fourth quarter with a few key sacks and a big turnover to put it away.
CFN Prediction
: Kansas 31 ... Oklahoma State 27  ... Line: Kansas -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 2.5


Week 7 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games