SEC Fearless Predictions , Week 7, Part 2
Posted Oct 5, 2006

Preview and predictions for the week seven SEC games ... Part 2

East  Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State
- Part SEC Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6

How are the picks so far? SU: 44-9 ... ATS: 25-22-1

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 7
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Jacksonville State (3-2) at Mississippi State (1-5)  2:30 PM EST Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: This isn't your typical cupcake game. Jacksonville State has one of D-IAA's best defenses, and the type of running game that could keep this a low scoring, close affair well into the fourth quarter if Mississippi State keeps playing like, well, Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a 42-14 thumping by West Virginia, and could use an easy win before dealing with a road trip to Georgia. The Gamecocks of JSU have won two straight beating Eastern Kentucky and Murray State by a combined score of 67 to 17, and they'll make this interesting.
Why Jacksonville State Might Win: Run, run, run. Of course, JSU doesn't run the ball like West Virginia, but it does have a dangerous ground attack that eats up yards in chunks tearing off 303 yards and five scores earlier this year against a not-that-bad SE Missouri State team and ran for 512 yards and eight scores over the last two weeks. 205-pound senior RB Clay Green has a nose for the goal line and is just good enough to keep the chains moving. However ...
Why Mississippi State Might Win: ... MSU isn't all that bad against the run, West Virginia game aside. The biggest problem has been against the pass giving up way too many big plays and getting picked apart by any quarterback with a pulse. Fortunately for MSU, JSU doesn't throw with any consistency. Loading up to stop the run and leaving the corners by themselves won't be a problem.
Who to Watch: It's not cupcake time for MSU; it's a vital game to get the offense some quality reps and hope the passing game can be salvaged. Omarr Conner, who finally got the offense going after moving from receiver to quarterback, might be out for the year with a groin injury, while redshirt freshman Tray Rutland, who the team was grooming to be the main man for next year, is out after ripping up his knee late against West Virginia. that means it's Michael Henig back at the helm with freshman walk-on Zack Harrington and former defensive back Anthony Sommers providing the depth.
What Will Happen: Mississippi State will get pushed far harder than it might like for about a half, and then the Bulldog D will take over.
CFN Prediction
: Mississippi State 31 ... Jacksonville State 14 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 1

Ole Miss (2-4) at Alabama (4-2)  3:30 PM EST CBS Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: Members of the We Beat Vanderbilt club meet in search of a second SEC win. Alabama, coming off a surprisingly tough 30-14 win over Duke, needs another tune up before dealing with a trip to Tennessee that could get the team back on the national radar, while Ole Miss played Georgia tough in a 14-9 loss and beat Vandy last week 17-10. Ed Orgeron's bunch hasn't been impressive in any way this season, but the defense is keeping teams from blowing up and should be able to keep this competitive for a few quarters.
Why Ole Miss Might Win: The Tide offense has hardly been consistent. It took a late touchdown run and an interception for a score to finally put Duke away, and it's not the type of attack that will explode for 45 points. On defense, Bama isn't generating much in the way of pressure, so Ole Miss QB Brent Schaeffer should be able relax a little bit and have time to throw. This should be a low-scoring, defensive affair, at least for a half, so if the Rebels can force a few Tide mistakes, and capitalize on them, this might be interesting.  However ...
Why Alabama Might Win: ... don't expect Bama to give the game away. The team leads the SEC, and is sixth in the nation, in turnover margin with nine turnovers and 17 takeaways. Ole Miss is an easy puzzle to solve; load up against RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, force Schaeffer to win with his arm and decision-making, and the game's over. Schaeffer's one of the most inefficient passers in the nation, and Bama isn't giving anything up through the air, so unless the Rebels run for 200+ yards, it's over.
Who to Watch: Is it time to start considering Alabama's D.J. Hall among the elite of the elite receivers? The junior went on a record-setting two game tear last year after the Ole Miss came catching 21 passes for 296 yards, and then saw his production drop off the map over the final four games. This year, he missed the opener against Hawaii scored twice on five catches against Vandy and UL Monroe, and then he blew up with three straight 100-yard games with 19 catches. He's a good, reliable midrange threat who has the speed to stretch the field.
What Will Happen: Alabama's offense will come up with two big plays in the first half and the D will forced four turnovers on the way to an easy win.
CFN Prediction
: Alabama 26 ... Ole Miss 7 ... Line: Alabama -15
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 2

Kentucky (3-3) at LSU (4-2)  8 PM EST Saturday October 14th
Why to Watch: This might be more entertaining than it might appear on paper. LSU will try to get over a puzzlingly strange loss at Florida complete with breakdowns on special teams, a fumbled snap on the goal line, and not enough be plays from the defense. 0-2 on the road, the Tigers are back in their warm, home cocoon where they've obliterated the weak and sad by a total of 187 to 34 in four games. Kentucky doesn't have nearly enough talent to win this game without a few dozen breaks, but it does have a good passing offense that can bomb away a little bit. The defense played well in a 24-17 loss to South Carolina last week getting burned but a quirky trick play, and it should be able to keep this close for a few quarters.
Why Kentucky Might Win: It's going to take something wacky for UK to have a shot, and the big play might come from the return game. Even with punt returner Rafael Little out, Keenan Burton is a game-breaker who should be able to bust a few big runs against a miserable Tiger punt coverage unit. LSU uses a strange punt formation that doesn't seem to work while the team is netting out just 31.72 yards per punt. Kentucky's run defense has been horrendous getting shoved around by everyone, but the LSU offensive line isn't getting much of a push and the running backs aren't producing.
Why LSU Might Win: LSU provides a bad matchup for most teams, but it's a really bad fit for Kentucky. LSU's biggest strength is its defensive line, and Kentucky can't pass protect and won't get any push for the Little-less running game. QB Andre Woodson will try to bomb away, but LSU's secondary is one of the nation's best and only gives up big plays when the safeties have to cheat up against the run. No need to do that against the Wildcats.
Who to Watch: It's this simple for Kentucky: prevent Woodson from getting killed, or lose big. LSU's defensive line has has come up with 20 sacks so far led by SEC sack leader Tyson Jackson. Chase Pittman, Glenn Dorsey, and almost too many other options to get into the rotation all get into the backfield on a regular basis. Woodson has to be razor-sharp in his decision making or this will be a brutally ugly blowout right off the bat.
What Will Happen: LSU might have its flaws, but it's at home against a mediocre team. You know what's going to happen.
CFN Prediction
: LSU 45 ... Kentucky 13 ... Line: LSU -26
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Class) ... 2.5

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 7
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