Rising:
Oregon: Just a fantastic performance by this team.
Washington State: Not a win, but a very valiant effort in defeat.
Cal: Very strong game by the Bears.
Washington: Another step forward for the Huskies.
Hovering:
UCLA: Good defense, lousy offense.
Stanford: Not getting better, but not getting worse either.
Falling:
USC: They struggled way too much in this game.
Arizona: They really need to find a way to pick up the pieces, because they are definitely at a crossroads right now.
Arizona State: What a total disaster of a game for this team.
Oregon 48, @ Arizona State (-1.5) 13
(my pick: Oregon 34, @ Arizona State 28
Talk about a statement game. Oregon came out on fire and just never looked back, dominating this game virtually from the outset. ASU never really got in a groove, and they certainly never looked like they knew how to handle Oregon’s spread attack. And Rudy Carpenter just looked really, really bad.
What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:
You pretty much HAVE to put the Ducks into the conversation for the Pac-10 title after this game. Sure, ASU has had plenty of issues, but it’s still one hell of a big game for the Ducks to come in and dominate, especially in the desert heat in the middle of the day. Right now, Dennis Dixon looks like the best Pac-10 quarterback, and along with Jonathan Stewart makes a very potent offensive combination.
If you’re Arizona State:
Boy, that bye week sure came at the right time. After two completely abysmal performances, the Sun Devils get a week to lick their wounds and try and come up with some sort of strategy for turning around their season. Right now, though, that looks like a very tall task, as the only thing they’ve done at all decently is run the ball. Their defense has really struggled, and their tackling was awful. And Rudy Carpenter was even worse. Before the year, I said he might struggle against good defenses, but I certainly never expected anything like this. It’s becoming increasingly clear that this team desperately misses Derek Hagan as a weapon on offense, because right now they just don’t have much explosiveness.
Cal (-9) 41, @ Oregon State 13
(my pick: Cal 31, @ Oregon State 17
Well, that certainly answered any lingering questions about the Bears on the road. Cal came in and smoked the Beavers throughout the first half, and are absolutely on fire.
What to take from this:
If you’re Cal:
Great, great game on both sides of the ball. It’s tough to see how they could have done any better. Now they need to keep it up in their big test against Oregon.
If you’re Oregon State:
This wasn’t at all a good performance by this team, but it doesn’t have to be a huge deal. We already suspected that they wouldn’t be able to hang with a good team who brought their A game, and now we know it. But it really isn’t that big of a deal, as long as they win the games they’re supposed to, starting next week against Wazzu.
Washington 21, @ Arizona (-3.5) 10
(my pick: @ Arizona 24, Washington 21)
Washington played very well in the first half, building a big halftime lead that Arizona’s impotent offense never really had much of a chance to dig into.
What to take from this:
If you’re Washington:
This was an important step for the Huskies, as they have now extended their winning streak to three games, and also won away from Seattle, which is a big step. The key for this team is going to be consistency, though, as they did all of their scoring in the second quarter. To be able to compete against legitimately good teams, they need to be able to keep it up.
If you’re Arizona:
The defense is good, the offense stinks. It’s the same old story in Tucson, but now that the Wildcats have a losing record with games still to go against UCLA, Oregon and Cal they really have no margin for error. They’re almost certainly going to have to spring an upset against one of those three to have a realistic shot of making a bowl game, and it’s tough to see where that would be.
USC (-16.5) 28, @ Washington State 22
(my pick: USC 24, @ Washington State 10)
This was a surprisingly close game, as Wazzu was in it right until the very end. The first half was close, as the teams were essentially equal throughout. The Cougars got a bunch of yards, but the Trojans did an excellent job of making big plays when they had to, which was why they went into the clubhouse with a slight lead. The second half was more of the same, as the Cougars kept on hanging in there, but every time a big play came up, USC did the job. They converted a big fourth down midway through the third quarter, they got a big goal line stand to start the fourth, and then they converted another big fourth down late in the quarter.
What to take from this:
If you’re USC:
The good news is that the Trojans certainly rise to the challenge when they have to. Their fourth down conversion in the middle of the 3rd quarter was a microcosm of everything they do well; they were totally fearless and confident of their ability to make the big play, and then they went and once against rose to the challenge.
However, it really feels like they’re playing with fire here. Even with all of their big plays, they still needed a game-saving snap recovery by their punter to hold on and win, and it was just a six-point victory. At some point, they’re going to play a team which is capable of taking advantage of the opportunities that they’re giving away, and if they play like they did here then, they will get knocked off.
If you’re Washington State:
You have to be happy with the way that this team played. Sure, they didn’t get the win, but it was still one heck of a moral victory. They absolutely played well enough to win, and if just a couple of key plays had gone the other way, they would have come away with the big upset. As long as they avoid a letdown, they should be completely fine.
@ UCLA (-23) 31, Stanford 0
(my pick: @ UCLA 28, Stanford 7)
Despite the final score, this was a surprisingly close game for the most part. UCLA was only up 7-0 at the half, with the difference being a blocked punt. And then they only got one touchdown in the third quarter, keeping the result in doubt until early in the fourth quarter.
What to take from this:
If you’re Stanford:
The bad news is obvious: the offense stinks. As long as Mark Bradford (season) and Evan Moore (who knows how long?) are out, they simply don’t have any real weapons, and just can’t expect to compete with decent teams. And for some idiotic reason, they still insist on frequently running it up the gut despite having an O-line that almost never gets any real push.
That said, their defense is really coming along, and had a decent evening, highlighted by a huge goal line stand at the end of the first half. They were in this game for quite a long time, and only saw it start to slip away after the controversial turnover midway through the third quarter took away the only drive they ever had that got any real momentum.
If you’re UCLA:
The defense played really well, no doubt about it. However, the offense left a lot to be desired. Ben Olson didn’t look at all good, making quite a few bad passes and generally hindering the offense more than he helped. If you take away the blocked punt and the defensive touchdown, the Bruins got just 17 points, and that’s not acceptable at home against a team that has struggled as much as Stanford has. Arizona won’t be much of a test, but after that the schedule really starts to get tough, with three nasty road games (Oregon, Notre Dame and Cal) in the span of four weeks. This level of effort on offense won’t get it done against those teams.
My Pac-10 Record:
This week: SU 4-1, ATS 4-1
Season: SU 30-6, ATS 15-17
National Games of the Week:
Ohio State (-7) 38 @ Iowa 17
(my pick: Ohio State 21, @ Iowa 13)
Dominating game by the Buckeyes in an extremely hostile environment. If you don’t have them as #1 right now, then you probably shouldn’t have a ballot.
Boise State 36, @ Utah (-5) 3
(my pick: @ Utah 28, Boise State 24)
Talk about your statement games. It’s way too early to talk in absolutes, and the Broncos could well undermine their case even without a loss (i.e. by struggling against lousy teams), but right now if they run the table it’s really tough to see how they can be kept out of a BCS game.
@ Notre Dame (-14) 35, Purdue 21
(my pick: @ Notre Dame 35, Purdue 27)
Decent, but unspectacular game by the Irish.
Texas Tech 31, @ Texas A&M (-2.5) 27
(my pick: Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 21)
Absolutely one of the best games of the week, with a wild finish. Texas Tech nearly threw a game-ending pick, then made a game-saving fourth down, then threw a long bomb for a touchdown with less than a minute to go to give them the winning points. Great, great game.
Georgia Tech 38, @ Virginia Tech (-10) 27
(my pick: @ Virginia Tech 28, Georgia Tech 13)
So much for Calvin Johnson being out for the game. He had a huge performance in a big-time road win for the Yellow Jackets, as they set themselves as the favorite to come out of the Coastal Division in the ACC.
National Games record
This week: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
Season: 10-8 SU, 10-7-1 ATS)
My Top 20
Slowly but surely, I’m expanding the list to eventually (i.e. next week) hit the top 25, but right now I still can’t separate anyone outside of my top 20.
1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
I’m sorry, but I just can’t see how the top 2 can be anything other than the way I have it. There have been three and only three dominating road wins over legitimate top 25 teams. Ohio State has two, and Michigan has one. And without any significant blotches in their resume, that’s all that needs to be said.
3) USC
They had real issues against Wazzu, but they still look better than anyone else.
4) Louisville
No one else did anything to knock off the Cardinals, though Miami keeps on making that win look less impressive every week.
5) LSU
6) Florida
7) Auburn
Auburn’s struggles against South Carolina are enough to make me put them on the tail end of this group, and Florida didn’t exactly look world-beating against the Tide either.
8) West Virginia
Why not? They haven’t played anyone, but they’ve still looked great doing it.
9) Boise State
Overrated? Maybe, but right now they’ve earned it. That’s what you get for completely dominating a good Utah team in their own backyard.
10) Clemson
The Tigers just keep on rolling over the opposition.
11) Texas
12) Wisconsin
My opinion on the Badgers is completely unchanged. I’m not sold on them staying this high, but to me they’ve earned this spot.
13) Oregon
14) Cal
15) Tennessee
16) Notre Dame
I don’t see much separation between these four teams just yet, though we should learn a lot about 13 – 15 this weekend.
17) Georgia
That’s yet another game where the Bulldogs have struggled against a lousy team. One is a fluke, two is a pattern.
18) Oklahoma
19) Iowa
20) Georgia Tech
The best of the rest.
Last week:
1) Michigan
2) USC
3) Ohio State
4) Louisville
5) Florida
6) Auburn
7) LSU
8) West Virginia
9) Iowa
10) Clemson
11) Texas
12) Virginia Tech
13) Georgia
14) Wisconsin
Soapbox Moment:
I had a lot of fun with this last week, and most of the respondents enjoyed the feature, so I figured why not do it again? This week I’m going to chat about the new law just passed in Washington severly restricts online gambling, banning credit card companies from making deposits to online casinos.
Quite simply, this is a really dumb law. Admittedly, online gambling is illegal, but who exactly are we kidding? It’s nonetheless popular, and it’s mostly harmless. Of all of the things that Congress could take a stand against, this to me seems like a monumental waste of time. And it becomes even worse when you take the time to think about who actually benefits from this law. Sure, Vegas will get a boost from it, but they aren’t the ones who will really rake it in, as it’s not like all of the online bettors will be taking vacations to the desert just so they can make a few sports bets. Instead, it’s going to be the bookies who really make out like bandits from this law.
Where before there was the possibility (according to Congress) that some small percentage of the money might somehow go to terrorists (despite the fact that many online casinos are actual corporations, some of which are registered in countries like the UK, hardly a bastion of international terrorism), now we have the certainty that a lot of the money is going right into the hands of organized crime. Real smart, guys.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com