Rising:
Cal: They wanted to be like Oregon (as the announcers repeated endlessly during the game), and now they are: their team looks great, and their uniforms look hideous.
Washington: This team really does keep getting better every week.
Hovering:
Washington State: An important win for the Cougars.
Stanford: It’s not obvious, but this team is actually improving… slightly.
UCLA: About the same level of performance as we’ve seen of late.
Oregon State: Ditto.
Falling:
USC: Yet another way too close call for the Trojans. They aren’t playing like a top 5 team right now.
Arizona: They didn’t play horribly, but Tuitama’s injury is a very big problem.
Oregon: The Ducks got exposed in a major way at Berkeley.
@ Cal (-4.5) 45, Oregon 24
(my pick: @ Cal 38, Oregon 31)
Cal came out of the gates very hot in this game, and took control early, though the Ducks were still in it for a while. The key turning point came in the second quarter, when the Bears got a pick, then gave it right back throwing a pick of their own in the end zone, but almost immediately recovered a Duck fumble and converted it for a touchdown to make it 21-3 and more or less put the game away; a punt return by Jackson later in the quarter was then the final nail in the coffin.
What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:
This team got exposed in a very big way here. The defense just couldn’t keep up with the Bears, which to a degree was expected. However, the offense was the real problem for this team. Dennis Dixon is a junior now; this sort of inconsistent effort should have been well in the past for him. Oregon has to be concerned about what can happen when the offense is struggling, and it’s likely that they’ll have a couple of more games where things aren’t working. How they finish will depend on whether they can show more resiliency than they did here.
If you’re Cal:
This team continues to improve pretty much every week. The defense is really coming along, and Desean Jackson looks like the best player in the entire conference. There really isn’t much more to say; unless there’s a big change, it’s very tough to see them being seriously challenged, much less actually beaten, before their trip to USC.
@ USC (-19) 26, Washington 20
(my pick: @ USC 35, Washington 14)
This was one heck of a pleasant surprise of a game, as the Huskies definitely came to play, keeping this game in doubt right up until the very last play, when they just barely ran out of time on their comeback effort. From a Husky onsides recovery to a blocked punt for the Trojans, this game was filled with all sorts of excitement and was easily one of the best games of the year so far.
What to take from this:
If you’re Washington:
They’re definitely going to have to watch out for a post-loss hangover, but if they can keep it together, this will continue to be a very dangerous team that is capable of giving just about anyone a game.
If you’re USC:
Now it’s officially time to seriously worry. The offense was very inconsistent, and the defense gave up plenty of points for the second straight week. It’s obvious that they miss Jarrett, but it really seems like their problems run deeper than that. If they keep playing like this and letting other teams stick around, they are going to be knocked off, and it may happen sooner than you think.
Washington State (-3) 13, @ Oregon State 3
(my pick: Washington State 28, @ Oregon State 21)
In an ugly, turnover-filled game, the Cougars ended up making fewer mistakes and walked out with an important win, while the Beavers continued their downward slide.
What to take from this:
If you’re Washington State:
The offense played poorly, but the defense really had a strong day. As long as they can avoid hurting themselves with turnovers, they will continue to impress and be a dangerous foe.
If you’re Oregon State:
This team is really struggling right now. You’re never going to win games when you commit four turnovers, and what’s worse, the Beavers struggled to move the ball well on offense. At 2-3, their bowl hopes are in serious jeopardy, and they desperately need at least a split in their upcoming two road games to have any sort of realistic shot at making the postseason.
@ UCLA (-11.5) 27, Arizona 7
(my pick: @ UCLA 27, Arizona 14)
This game was surprisingly close for a very long time, with the teams trading blows back and forth right until the Bruins get a pick six on an errant Wildcat pass deep in UCLA territory to put the game away.
What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona:
The Wildcats played a pretty good game, all things considered. However, it was obvious that Adam Austin wasn’t the answer, as he just didn’t do a very good job as Willie Tuitama’s replacement, though his receivers played well enough to make his stats look respectable. If Tuitama’s injury lasts for a while, this team is going to be in for some major trouble.
If you’re UCLA:
Patrick Cowan played surprisingly well in relief of Ben Olson, but he probably isn’t the answer for any kind of long term. The Wildcats aren’t a great team, and it has to be concerning that this game was in doubt for a long timee, especially since this is now the second straight home game against a weak foe that the Bruins haven’t been able to put it away until late.
@ Notre Dame 31, Stanford (+29.5) 10
(my pick: @ Notre Dame 31, Stanford 10)
It’s always nice to get the exact score right, but to be honest the way this game played out surprised me a lot. If you had told me that Stanford would: drop a touchdown pass and settle for 3 points as a result; drop three makeable interceptions (two of which were on touchdown drives); and make a fair number of other bad mistakes, I would have expected this to be a total blowout. Instead it was just a three touchdown margin. That should say everything about how strong Notre Dame isn’t.
What to take from this:
There’s still a heck of a lot of work to be done, but this team is definitely getting better. Early in the season they were flat-out uncompetitive in every respect; now they’re at the point where they just need to cut down on the mistakes to be competitive. They’re still a lousy team, but you can’t call them abysmal anymore, which is an improvement.
My Pac-10 Record:
This week: SU 5-0, ATS 4-1
Season: SU 35-6, ATS 19-18
National Games of the Week:
@ Florida (-1) 23, LSU 10
(my pick: @ Florida 17, LSU 14)
Well, that certainly made a strong case for the Gators as the nation’s number two team.
Texas (-3.5) 28, Oklahoma 10
(my pick: Texas 27, Oklahoma 21)
The balance of power has definitely shifted in the Big 12 South, that’s for sure.
Tennessee (-2.5) 51, @ Georgia 33
(my pick: Tennessee 14, @ Georgia 13)
So much for “no offense in the SEC”. Tennessee got themselves in a lot of trouble early, but made an amazing second half comeback to go from getting beat up to winning handily.
National Games record
This week: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
Season: 13-8 SU, 12-8-1 ATS)
My Top 25
Finally, we have seen enough football to fairly distinguish a legitimate top 25.
1) Ohio State
2) Florida
3) Michigan
Between the Gators’ extremely impressive win over LSU and Notre Dame’s continued struggles, Florida has to get bumped above the Wolverines.
4) Louisville
5) USC
The Trojans just aren’t playing well enough right now to justify putting them any higher.
6) West Virginia
7) Tennessee
Now try and imagine how good the Vols would have been if they hadn’t been hurt by key injuries.
8) Cal
9) Boise State
10) Missouri
They still haven’t played anyone great, but it was still an impressive win for the Tigers in Lubbock.
11) Clemson
This is the line in the sand; anyone above them has played well enough so far to at least warrant a mention in the national title race, while almost everyone below has warts so big that it’s tough to see them climbing back into it.
12) Texas
13) Wisconsin
14) Arkansas
15) Rutgers
16) Notre Dame
17) LSU
18) Auburn
Just a monumental tumble for the Auburn Tigers. They’d be a good deal higher if they hadn’t also struggled so much against South Carolina the week before, which makes the beatdown by Arkansas seem much less like a fluke.
19) Oregon
20) Iowa
21) Georgia Tech
22) Oklahoma
23) Washington
Their loss was still a lot more impressive than plenty of teams’ best wins of the year.
24) Georgia
25) Nebraska
Last week:
1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) USC
4) Louisville
5) LSU
6) Florida
7) Auburn
8) West Virginia
9) Boise State
10) Clemson
11) Texas
12) Wisconsin
13) Oregon
14) Cal
15) Tennessee
16) Notre Dame
17) Georgia
18) Oklahoma
19) Iowa
20) Georgia Tech
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com