Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Week 8, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 13, 2006


Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7


How'd we do so far? 40-8 straight up, 18-22-2 ATS 

Week 8 Big 12 Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games

Texas Tech (4-3) at Iowa State (3-4)  3:30 PM EST  Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: Which team's floundering season will officially start to go into the tank? Iowa State has faced a nasty schedule losing to Iowa, Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma over the last five weeks, but it won by the skin of its teeth against miserable Toledo and UNLV teams along with a one-point win over D-IAA Northern Iowa. A loss this week likely means the end of bowl hopes for a team that can't seem to find anything to hang its hat on. Texas Tech has shown flashes of oh-my-goodness brilliance mixed in with oh-my-goodness tank jobs against Colorado and TCU. With Texas coming up next week, the Red Raiders desperately need to stop the two-game losing slide to get back on track to get higher in the bowl pecking order. There should be a ton of passing and a lot of big plays in what should be an entertaining game.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: The Red Raider pass defense has been strong leading the Big 12 allowing only 148 yards. Iowa State QB Bret Meyer is good, but he hasn't been efficient relying more on the home run shot to try to bail out a mediocre running game. Granted, the Tech secondary has only faced one team that throws, UTEP, and got burned, but the secondary has been relatively strong all year long. If Iowa State isn't throwing well, it isn't winning. Meanwhile, the Cyclone secondary has been awful with no pass rush from the line to provide any help, and it's even worse now with top corner DeAndre Jackson out for the year with a knee injury.
Why Iowa State Might Win: Will good Texas Tech show up or will it be weird, bad Texas Tech? When QB Graham Harrell is off, he's really, really off, and there's absolutely no running game to fall back on. Iowa State has to hope Harrell is misfiring and unable to get on the same page as his great receiving corps, and it has to find a way to sniff out plays like Colorado was able to do last week. The Red Raiders will turn the ball over, but can Iowa State take advantage of the mistakes?
Who to Watch: If Joel Filani scores, Texas Tech usually wins. Fine, so it's not that simple, but Tech is 4-1 this year when the senior receiver gets into the end zone, and 0-2 when he doesn't, and 10-2 over the last three years when he scores. Coincidence? Maybe, but while Robert Johnson and Jarrett Hicks are certainly capable of burning secondaries, the offense always seems to hum at its best when Filani is rolling. Before being held to four catches last week, he caught 21 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns over the previous two games. He should have a field day in single coverage, and Harrell has to find a way to get him the ball. Meanwhile, Hicks saw his 28-game streak of catching at least one pass stopped at Colorado, while Johnson will likely be back in the mix after being suspended for last week's game.
What Will Happen: Iowa State isn't very good. At least, it's not playing like it's any good. Texas Tech's offense will get back on track with all the parts working again.
CFN Prediction
: Texas Tech 31 ... Iowa State 24 ... Line: Texas Tech -2
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 3

Texas A&M (6-1) at Oklahoma State (4-2)  7 PM EST Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: All of a sudden, after impressive wins last week, this game becomes critical in the Big 12 race. Texas A&M beat Missouri with a pounding running game and timely defense to get back in the hunt. The win showed the Aggies could play with the league's best, and now it needs to beat OSU and Baylor to be 8-1 before dealing with a three-game stretch against Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas that'll make or break the conference pecking order in some way, shape or form. Oklahoma State's season appeared to be slipping away after losing to Kansas State in the final three minutes and getting down 17-0 to Kansas in the second half. And then a funny thing happened on the way to the abyss; Bobby Reid and Adarius Bowman turned in the greatest passing display the Big 12 had ever seen. Bowman caught 13 passes for a Big 12 record 300 yards and four touchdowns on the way to a 42-32 win to keep bowl hopes alive. Now it has to get by Texas A&M if it wants to be considered any sort of the threat in the South race.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: A&M should be able to run all day long. Oklahoma State had major problems with Kansas when RB Jon Cornish was rumbling, but once he got knocked out with an injury, the KU ground game stopped. Kansas State's Leon Patton dashed for 151 yards on the Cowboys, and A&M should be able to use the thunder and lightning of Jorvorsrkie Lane and Mike Goodson. The 276-pound Lane beating down OSU while the fast Goodson should break off several big runs on the outside. With speedy freshman linebacker Chris Collins out for the year, OSU will have to move things around in the linebacking corps at an inopportune time. The Aggie secondary is just good enough to keep Bowman under wraps, however ...
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: ... OSU has the potential to dink and dunk all day long if Reid gets hot. The Big 12's most efficient passer broke out last week, but he's been fantastic all season long growing into an accurate thrower and a fantastic decision maker. To use the cliché, the light has gone on. With 17 touchdown passes and only five interceptions, with three of them coming in the win over Arkansas State, he's been far better than expected, and now he's starting to use his mobility more and more to set up his passing, and not as a crutch. He's everything to OSU's offense, and if he's hot, A&M might be in trouble.
Who to Watch: So how good is Bowman? The transfer from North Carolina is big enough and fast enough to entertain thoughts of leaving early for the NFL, and he's been roaring hot over the last few weeks. The Kansas game got him the national attention, but he also caught seven passes for 166 yards and a score against Houston. With all the attention paid to him, watch out for D'Juan Woods to play a bigger role.
What Will Happen: Texas A&M is the real deal, but so is Reid. A&M's offense will be efficient, while the defense will force a few key mistakes to get away with the tight win.
CFN Prediction
: Texas A&M 31 ... Oklahoma State 27 ... Line: Oklahoma State -1.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 3

Colorado (1-6) at Oklahoma (4-2)  7 PM EST  Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: Colorado is riding high after getting its first week of the year by shutting down the Texas Tech passing game in a stunning 30-6 win. Oklahoma overcame the loss to Texas with a convincing 34-9 win over Iowa State, but lost star RB Adrian Peterson for the year with a broken collarbone and had off-the-field issues with top LB Rufus Alexander being arrested and being charged with disturbing the peace and interference with official process. Basically, he was involved in breaking up a fight. Even though he'll likely play this week, it was just another bad thing for a team that's had a rocky year. With road trips to Missouri and Texas A&M coming up next, and with a date with Texas Tech to follow, the Sooners can't afford a slip this week. A win for the Buffs would truly mean the turnaround has arrived and might spark a great run with winnable games against Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State before finishing up with Nebraska.
Why Colorado Might Win: What, exactly, is Oklahoma going to do for an offense now that Peterson is out? He was everything to the OU offense, and in what now appears to be a huge mistake by the Sooner coaching staff, there's not really a game-prepared number two ground option ready to roll. Worse yet, Colorado's run defense has been fantastic all season long and isn't likely to give up many big gains. That means the offense likely will revolve around QB Paul Thompson, but he hasn't proven he can carry the attack and will be under intense pressure all game long by the excellent Buff pass rush.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Either Colorado will run the ball, or its offense won't go anywhere. Bernard Jackson had an efficient, terrific game against against Texas Tech set up by Hugh Charles and the running game. The OU defense has been excellent against the pass ever since getting bombed on by Oregon's Dennis Dixon over a month ago, and it will pin its ears back and sell out against the run. If OU doesn't make mistakes on offense and stops the run, it should get through the first game after Peterson without a problem.
Who to Watch: Allen Patrick and Jacob Gutierrez, your table is ready.  These two have seen plenty of reps in practice, but now they have to go live as they attempt to do the impossible and replace the best player in college football and nearly 91% of the team's running game. They're both blazing fast with Patrick, a former defensive back and top special teamer, the bigger of the two, and Gutierrez the more experienced saving the day against Baylor last year by running for 173 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. He's coming off a knee injury suffered in the Holiday Bowl, but the 5-6 junior is starting to almost back to normal.
What Will Happen: How did OU do without A.D. when he missed most of three games with an ankle injury? It lost to Texas, beat Kansas 19-3, and beat Baylor 37-30. Colorado won't have enough on offense to win, but its D will keep it close.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma 17 ... Colorado 13 ... Line: Oklahoma -12.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 3


Week 8 Big 12 Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games