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Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Week 8

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 13, 2006


Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Previews and Analysis for Every Game


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7


How'd we do so far? 40-8 straight up, 18-22-2 ATS 

Week 8 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Big 12 Game of the Week

Texas (6-1) at Nebraska (6-1)  12 PM EST ABC Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: Is this a preview of the Big 12 Championship game? Nebraska gets Missouri in Lincoln, while Texas could win this game and probably survive an upset loss along the way and still get in. The Longhorns are thinking bigger hoping to creep its way up from the No. 9 spot in the initial BCS rankings and get in range for the national title game. Nebraska was ranked 17th in the first rankings, and it still has dreams of playing in the BCS somewhere with a win this week being a huge step for the program and officially announcing that it's back to being a powerhouse. Outside of a strange second half collapse in the win over Kansas and the loss to USC, the Huskers have been coldly efficient winning five games by double digits with few problems on the road the last two weeks in wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. Texas bounced back from its loss to Ohio State to win its next five games by a combined score of 236 to 65 and coming off a 63-31 shootout victory over Baylor. Both teams are better than you think with the winner taking a huge step in national respect. Texas has won the five of the last six between the two with the last loss coming in the 1999 Big 12 Championship.
Why Texas Might Win: Does Nebraska actually have the ability to bomb away if needed against a halfway decent defense? Has it actually beaten anyone with a pulse? Of the six wins, only one came over a possible bowl team (the Kansas/Kansas State winner will likely get the final Big 12 bowl spot). Oh sure, the offense has been ultra-efficient relying on a balanced attack, no mistakes, and a decent defense to get through the wins without a problem, but the coaching staff went Red State conservative against USC and didn't show any of the punch to make it interesting. Texas is starting to mix it up and is starting to put up big points with home run hitting passing game. The Nebraska secondary is burnable, the UT QB Colt McCoy will bomb at will unless ...
Why Nebraska Might Win: ... the Huskers get into the backfield. Texas has been able to dominate because of its offensive line, but the Husker front won't be pushed around and it has enough talent (even though it hasn't shown up to expectations so far) to provide more of a pass rush on McCoy than he's seen since the Ohio State game. Just because Nebraska hasn't exploded for a full sixty minutes since early September, that doesn't mean it doesn't have the ability. If Zac Taylor and the passing game turn things loose, like Baylor was able to do last week against UT, there should be a few big plays against a suddenly suspect secondary.
Who to Watch: Limas Sweed has literally provided some punch to the Texas passing game. Sweed appeared to punch Baylor CB Anthony Arline last week, but was only flagged for a penalty and wasn't suspended by the Big 12 of Texas. He's been Colt McCoy's main target all year long catching at least one touchdown pass in every game but one, the loss to Ohio State, with eight scoring grabs on the year while averaging 17.6 yards per catch.
What Will Happen: Nebraska will come up with a few scores early to get the crowd into the game, but Texas will slowly, methodically work its way back into it and pull away in the fourth quarter thanks to the running game. Both teams will look good, and Nebraska will establish that it's back to being a power, but Texas will show why it belongs in the national title discussion.
CFN Prediction
: Texas 31 ... Nebraska 20 ... Line: Texas -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 4.5

Kansas State (4-3) at Missouri (6-1) 2 PM EST Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: A young Kansas State team is still trying to figure out exactly how good it is in only its second road game of the year, while Missouri is coming off the strange, tough loss to Texas A&M as it looks to get back on the Big 12 title track. The Tigers were rolling along before it had problems with turnovers in the first half, and Jorvorskie Lane and the Aggie power running game in the second, and needs this win with Oklahoma and Nebraska coming up next. This is a legitimate top 20 team that's still looking for national respect, but first it needs to show it can beat a mediocre team like KSU at home. Prince's team needs to find a win somewhere soon or hopes for a bowl game will go down the drain, but just coming up with a good showing against one of the Big 12's best might be the goal this week.
Why Kansas State Might Win: Kansas State is finding ways to get into the backfield sparking a surprisingly good season from the defense. Missouri's offense hasn't had to deal with many active defensive fronts so far, at least many that the great offensive line couldn't handle, so if Ian Campbell, who has been one of the Big 12's best pass rushers, can get to Chase Daniel and throw the Mizzou timing off, KSU has a shot. 
Why Missouri Might Win: Kansas State had better generate points from its defense and special teams, because it's offense won't do jack squat against the Tiger D. Mizzou lost to Texas A&M because it couldn't get the Aggie offense off the field, but ball control and keeping the chains moving isn't a forte of the Wildcat attack. Josh Freeman is one of the nation's least efficient passers, while Leon Patton is a quick, darting back, who plays into the Tiger D's quickness, and not a pounder who can wear down a D.
Who to Watch: With Kansas State looking to be as disruptive as possible on defense, Missouri will likely try to get rid of the ball quickly to its tight ends to keep things moving. A case could be made that the Tigers have the two best in America in Chase Coffman and Martin Rucker, and neither has disappointed so far after generating a little bit of preseason hype. Coffman has been the steadier receiver with 29 grabs and four touchdowns so far, while Rucker, who went without a catch last week, has seen his production diminish over the last two weeks with only two catches for 25 yards against Texas Tech and no grabs against A&M. Expect these two to combine for at least ten catches with the coaching staff making a concerted effort to get Rucker plenty of touches..
What Will Happen: Outside of a 31-point aberration against Oklahoma State, Kansas State hasn't put up any points over the last month scoring six against Louisville, three against Baylor and three against Nebraska. Don't look for any Wildcat fireworks against a Tiger D looking to make up for last week's loss.
CFN Prediction
: Missouri 31 ... Kansas State 9 ... Line: Missouri -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 2.5

Kansas (3-4) at Baylor (3-4) 3:05 PM EST Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: Not too long ago, this would've been to determine who the worst team in the Big 12 was and have no bearing whatsoever on the Big 12 race. KU might be 0-3 in conference play, but it's still in the hunt for a bowl bid with winnable games against Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State ahead, but first, it has to get over a soul-crushing three-game slide that saw an overtime loss to Nebraska, a last-minute loss to Texas A&M, and a breathtaking, record-setting second half bombing by Oklahoma State. Baylor lost its first Big 12 game of the year in a 63-41 shootout against Texas, and it needs to come up with a win this week with four tough games ahead. These two might not be challenging for the Big 12 title, but they're entertaining and should put on a great show.
Why Kansas Might Win: Outside of the Texas attack, Kansas has the most effectively balanced offense Baylor has seen all season. Unfortunately for BU, its defense has been effectively average against both the pass and the run getting bombed on by Texas and run over by Colorado. The big problem has been pressure up front; there hasn't been any. The KU offensive line shouldn't have any problems.
Why Baylor Might Win: KU's pass defense was awful before last week, and then it went to another level of bad giving up 300 receiving yards to Adarius Bowman and 411 passing yards to Bobby Reid as part of a 42-point second half. Baylor doesn't just throw; it throws, throws, and throws some more with one fo the nation's most one-dimensional attacks. In this game, that's a positive as the nation's tenth ranked passing attack should be able to fire at will. If BU could bomb away on Texas for 320 yards and three touchdowns, it'll be able to put up at least 350 on KU unless ...
Who to Watch: ... KU can dominate the time of possession. Part of the reason for the collapse against OSU was an inability to get the chains moving in the late to keep Reid and Bowman off the field. Things likely would've been far different had RB John Cornish been able to play after getting knocked out early in the second half after running ten times for 55 yards. On pace to be the Big 12's top rusher (thanks to the injury to Adrian Peterson), Cornish has rushed for 765 yards and 14 touchdowns so far and should be able to rumble for at least 125 if he can stay healthy.
What Will Happen: Do you like Cornish and Kerry Meier running it, or Shawn Bell and Baylor bombing it? The KU pass defense is worse than the Baylor run D.
CFN Prediction
: Baylor 34 ... Kansas 27 ... Line: Baylor -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 2.5


Week 8 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games