C-USA Fearless Predictions, Week 8

Preview and predictions for the week eight Conference USA games

Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7

Week 8 C-USA Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? 45-15 straight up, 28-23-2 ATS

Conference USA Game of the Week

UTEP (4-2) at Houston (4-3), 7:00 EST, Saturday, October 21
Why to watch: Last year’s 44-41 double-overtime game was a blueprint of what you’re going to get when a Mike Price team squares off with an Art Briles team.  Lots of passes, lots of points and lots of fun.  If not for the uniforms, it’d be impossible to tell these programs apart.  Both have strong-armed senior quarterbacks, offenses that can’t run and defenses that don’t stop anyone.  Oh, and both are talented enough to win the Western Division.  Losers of three straight, Houston needs a win in the worst way with its once-promising season is in a state of chaos, making Saturday night’s game a must win.  UTEP, on the other hand, enters this weekend riding a three-game winning streak, capped by a crisp, 34-20 victory over Tulane.  With Kevin Kolb and Jordan Palmer squaring off, NFL scouts get to watch two of the nation’s best senior quarterbacks for the price of one airfare.
Why UTEP might win: The Miners’ propensity for scoring will not be halted by a Cougar D that’s very soft against the pass and has had just one sack over the last four games.  Palmer will get all night to sit in the pocket, survey the secondary and throw darts to Johnnie Lee Higgins and the rest of his receivers.  Houston, on the other hand, is a mess along the offensive line, which has meant no daylight for the backs and more pressure on the quarterback.
Why Houston might win: Only three teams in the country allow more yards through the air than UTEP, a recipe for a huge night, even by Kolb’s lofty standards.  Houston is home to the most dynamic trio of receivers in Conference USA, which will frolic throughout the leaky Miner secondary and open things up for speedy Anthony Alridge to hit a homerun from out of the backfield.  Palmer was error-free last week, but the active interceptions leader hasn’t gone back-to-back games without a pick in two years.
Who to watch: Heading into the season, holdover Vincent Marshall and Arizona transfer Biren Ealy were the talk of the Houston receiving corps, however, 6-5 senior Jeron Harvey has muscled into the spotlight lately.  Harvey’s had three touchdown catches and back-to-back 100-yard games, giving Miner defensive coordinator Tim Hundley one more weapon to try and diffuse.
What will happen: Just like last year, 60 minutes won’t be enough in an arms race that’ll be decided in overtime.  In a crucial game for his side, Kolb will carry his Cougars to a thrilling win with just the second 400-yard game of his career.
CFN Prediction: Houston 44 … UTEP 37 ... Line: Houston -6
 Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 3

Tulane (2-4) at Auburn (6-1)  2:30 PM EST Saturday October 21st
Why to Watch: All is right again in the Auburn world after a breathtaking second half to beat Florida 27-17 to get back into the SEC title hunt. With the No. 4 ranking in the BCS, hopes of a national title are still alive with a breezy schedule ahead until facing Georgia in mid-November. Now it's stat-padding time needing to win impressively week in and week out to move up in the human polls as the next few weeks play out. Tulane has been better than last year, but it's still trying to get back on track and play consistently. The Green Wave has enough offensive talent to throw the ball around a little bit if Auburn is letting down.
Why Tulane Might Win: Will Auburn still have the defensive fire shown against Florida, or will it come out sluggish? Tulane QB Lester Ricard will bomb away, while Matt Forte and the running game are just good enough to keep the Tigers from pinning their ears back and rushing the passer. Even though it might not show up in the win-loss column, the team is playing far better than it did when it got blasted by LSU 49-7 a few weeks ago.
Why Auburn Might Win: The Tulane defense is awful and it isn't going to force the mistakes needed to come up with the upset. Ranking 116th in the nation in turnover margin, the Green Wave D has only forced six turnovers so far and hasn't even been close to slowing down anyone's passing game. If Auburn is trying at all, it should be able to come up with at least five sacks against the struggling TU tackles and keep the inconsistent offense to around 250 yards of total offense.
Who to Watch: Auburn QB Brandon Cox has been good, but nothing special so far with only five touchdown passes and two interceptions. It's time the Tiger attack opens things up a little bit to see what it can do when the vertical passing game gets going. Tulane's secondary gives up yards in chunks, so look for Auburn to try to take a few deep shots early on with Cox forcing his passes more than he has over an ultra-efficient last few games. Courtney Taylor is way overdue for a huge game and should get in the end zone for the first time all season.
What Will Happen: Auburn will get hit with a few haymakers from Ricard, but the defense will take over with too much of a pass rush for the Green Wave to handle.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 38 ... Tulane 10 ... Line: Auburn -32
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 2

SMU (4-3) at East Carolina (2-4), 3:00 EST, Saturday, October 21
Why to watch: SMU capped a volatile week which saw its quarterback get suspended, and reinstated, by rallying for a key comeback win over Marshall.  That quarterback, freshman Justin Willis, came off the bench in the second quarter to go 20-of-23 for 208 yards and four touchdowns.  Each Mustang win is a colossal step toward bowl eligibility and the program’s first postseason game in 22 years.  One week after pasting Virginia for a breakthrough win, East Carolina regressed in a flat 31-10 loss to Tulsa.  The Pirates will be closing out a five-game homestand before spending the balance of the season away from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Why SMU might win: He may only be a freshman, but Willis has become an improvisational difference-maker.  He’s proven that over the last month, hoisting the Mustangs on his shoulders and accounting for 17 touchdowns to just a pair of picks.  Willis’ hot streak will continue against a Pirate team that’s 82^nd nationally in total defense and 73^rd in scoring defense.  For a change, he’ll also get support from a sporadic running game that’ll find more daylight than usual against one of the country’s worst run-stopping units.  The return of all-league DE Justin Rogers is a big boost for a defense that’ll get plenty of chances for sacks Saturday.
Why East Carolina might win: The Pirates won’t have much success on the ground against Conference USA’s best run defense, so they’ll opt instead to unleash James Pinkney and Aundrae Allison, who’s back from a high ankle sprain, on SMU’s 114^th-ranked pass defense.  Yeah, Pinkney’s been awful the last two weeks, but this is exactly the type of opponent he needs to get back on track. The return of Allison will certainly help. The Mustangs are just 103 on the road this year.
Who to watch: Freshman Emmanuel Sanders is growing up alongside Willis, while maturing into SMU’s top playmaker at receiver.  This weekend, he’ll be looking to extend to six his school-record for consecutive games with a touchdown catch against the suspect Pirate secondary.
What will happen: The masses haven’t caught up with SMU’s ascent, but this is a pretty good football team that’s begun to take on the personality of head coach Phil Bennett.  The Mustangs will turn ECU one-dimensional, snuffing out a late rally for win No. 5.
CFN Prediction: SMU 30 … East Carolina 24 ... Line: East Carolina -6
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 2

Rice (2-5) at UCF (2-4), 4:00 EST, Saturday, October 21
Why to watch: Rice is about where UCF was in 2004, losing more than it wins, while trying to lay the foundation for future success under the guidance of a first-year coach.  If nothing else, Owl games are often entertaining and always high scoring.  In last week’s 34-33 upset of UAB, Chase Clement connected with Jarrett Dillard for the game-winner with just three seconds left in regulation after almost blowing it with an interception. Unfortunately for George O’Leary, UCF is also about where UCF was in 2004.  Last week’s 52-7 home loss to Pittsburgh was a clear signal the Golden Knights have lost the momentum built from last year’s eight-win season.  There’s no shame in losing to the Panthers these days, but UCF was exposed as a shell of the 2005 squad.
Why Rice might win:  Balanced spread offenses, such as the one Rice will be bringing to the Citrus Bowl, have given UCF fits all year.  The Knights are 112^th nationally in total defense facing an offense that’s averaged 35 points since Clement returned from triage.  He has tossed ten touchdowns, with seven to Jarrett Dillard, while leading the Owls to more than 400 yards of offense in each of the last three games.
Why UCF might win: UCF isn’t playing defense, but then again, neither is Rice.  The Owls have allowed at least 480 yards of offense in four of the last five games getting lit up mostly through the air.  As bad as Steven Moffett has been in 2006, he and Kyle Israel will play like future pros, if only for a night, complementing a 100-yard day on the ground from Kevin Smith.
Who to watch: UCF WR Mike Walker had a career-high 12 catches earlier this year in a loss to South Florida.  That personal mark could be in jeopardy on Saturday when he’ll use his size and physical play to have a monster game against the beleaguered Owl secondary.                  
What will happen: Smith will run for 150 yards and two scores as the catalyst of a couple of long UCF drives that’ll create a temporary detour on Rice’s journey to respectability.
CFN Prediction: UCF 30 … Rice 24 ... Line: UCF -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Knights of Prosperity) ... 1.5

Week 8 C-USA Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games