Rising:
Oregon State: The obvious pick. That might have been a season-changing win in Seattle.
Arizona State: Sure, they didn’t win, but they looked one heck of a lot better than they did against Cal and Oregon.
Oregon: Far from a perfect win, but still a nice recovery from the debacle at Cal.
Hovering:
Cal: Nice win, but they had issues.
Washington State: Unpleasant loss, but immaterial in the larger scheme of things.
Falling:
UCLA: Not a horrible effort, but holes were definitely exposed.
USC: At what point does winning ugly stop being a sign of toughness and start being a sign of vulnerability? Answer: last week against Washington.
Arizona: They won, but at what cost?
Washington: If this team can’t handle life post-Stanback, they’ll be the biggest loser of the week, but they at least have hope on that front.
Stanford: Rock bottom just got even lower.
Cal (-8) 21, @ Washington State 3
(my pick: Cal 34, @ Washington State 14)
Not the most exciting game ever, but definitely a nice win for the Bears, as they once again to into enemy territory and come away happy.
What to take from this:
If you’re Cal:
You have to be happy with how the defense played, as really dominated this game almost from start to finish. However, the offense needs a bit of work, as it’s clear that it’s not always able to come out on all cylinders. Two picks and no touchdowns is an unacceptable effort from Longshore.
If you’re Washington State:
It turns out that lightning couldn’t strike twice, as the Cougars just didn’t have the horses to keep up with Cal. In the larger scheme of things, it’s not that big of a deal. The Cougars really need to step it up in the next two weeks if they want to have any sort of breathing room during the home stretch, since neither Arizona nor Washington will be slam dunks.
@ Oregon (-9) 30, UCLA 20
(my pick: @ Oregon 28, UCLA 17)
This game opened up with the Ducks on a tear, scoring three touchdowns in their first three drives to take control of the game. UCLA made a run in the second half, but after Oregon’s field goal in the fourth quarter, the margin was just too big to overcome.
What to take from this:
If you’re UCLA:
The easy lesson is that Patrick Cowan isn’t the answer. He never created any explosiveness in the passing game, and his ill-timed pick allowed Oregon to essentially seal away the win. However, just as much, if not more blame rests with the Bruin defense. Not only did they give up plenty of yards on the ground, they also killed themselves at times with penalties, which were a big part of how Oregon took control early. That has to change in a hurry.
If you’re Oregon:
It wasn’t a perfect win, and it has to be disconcerting how the Ducks allowed UCLA back into the game with some ill-timed screwups of their own early in the second half. However, this was still an important bounce-back win for the Ducks, and it certainly seems like they’ll be able to ride this momentum to a nice winning streak, especially now that Stanback went down at Washington.
@ USC (-18.5) 28, Arizona State 21
(my pick: @ USC 28, Arizona State 21)
This game opened like many people expected. ASU hurt themselves with early mistakes, including a dumb decision to try a long field goal (which they missed) instead of going for it, and USC build a relatively quick 21-0 lead. And then the rout was on…
Except that ASU didn’t let that happen. They fought and they fought and they made the halftime score a respectable 21-7 and then they kept fighting throughout the second half, tying the game before succumbing to a late Trojan TD drive that won the game.
What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona State:
The good: this team showed a lot of fight and toughness; it really looks like they’re tired of losing, tired of being the “same old” Arizona State, that always folds in pressure and big games.
The bad: coaching and discipline. The offsides penalty in USC’s last drive was a brutal turn for the Sun Devils; without it USC would have had to kick a field goal and there would have been more time left. And speaking of time, how poor was Koetter’s clock management? It’s at least justifiable that he punted and took his chances (especially without must time to plan it out), but it was completely idiotic to blow a timeout before USC’s first play. It’s absurd that he didn’t anticipate that the Trojans would milk the clock and take their time getting up after their runs. It was just a major, final terrible tactical blunder in a day where he had a few of them.
If you’re USC:
It’s just more cause for concern. USC has now had three straight weeks where they didn’t at all play like a legitimate top 10 team, let alone a top 3 team. If they don’t fix whatever is wrong with them over the bye week, they’re going to get knocked off. BEFORE Cal.
Arizona (-3.5) 20, @ Stanford 7
(my pick: @ Stanford 24, Arizona 21)
This was an ugly game where quarterbacks kept getting knocked out and, unsurprisingly, neither offense did nothing much. But Arizona’s defense played very well and carried the day in this game.
What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona:
So now apparently both of the starting quarterbacks are out. Thankfully the bye week is coming up after Oregon State, as this team definitely needs some time to heal.
If you’re Stanford:
At the start of the year, this team had three and only three good players: quarterback Trent Edwards and receivers Mark Bradford and Evan Moore. At the midpoint, the same thing is true, except that now they’re all out hurt. Even the bye week they’ll get after taking a beating in Tempe won’t be enough to make things better for this group. Unless Washington collapses without Stanback (and maybe even if they do), it’s really tough to see where the Cardinal can pick up a win. 0-12 will only get closer each and every week from here on out.
Oregon State 27, @ Washington (-9) 17
(my pick: @ Washington 31, Oregon State 17)
This was a surprising game, as Oregon State really came ready to play and dominated most of this game, despite going through a stretch where they killed themselves with a series of bad mistakes.
What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon State:
You have to be absolutely thrilled with the way this game went. The Beavers showed that they can have issues with mistakes and turnovers and still come out with a solid win against a good team. Obviously, they need to stop turning the ball over to build on their success here, but this is a very, very good sign.
If you’re Washington:
Isaiah Stanback is out for the season. That pretty much sums it up as far as where this team is heading. To make things worse, the Beavers pretty well exposed U-Dub’s run defense, as Bernard had a monster day in Seattle. At 4-3, they can afford to lose at Cal and Oregon and still have breathing room, but if they want to make a bowl game there’s definitely some work left to be done.
My Pac-10 Record:
This week: SU 3-2, ATS 3-2
Season: SU 38-8, ATS 22-20
National Games of the Week:
@ Auburn 27, Florida (-1.5) 17
(my pick: Florida 27, @ Auburn 20)
Rutgers 34, @ Navy (-2.5) 0
(my pick: Rutgers 27, @ Navy 24)
If you weren’t impressed by this win, then there’s probably nothing that can convince you that Rutgers is a pretty good team.
Michigan (-5.5) 17, @ Penn State 10
(my pick: Michigan 28, @ Penn State 17)
Not the most impressive win ever, but it’s still good to walk away from Happy Valley with a win.
National Games record
This week: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
Season: 15-9 SU, 14-9-1 ATS)
Bad Lines of the Week:
Baylor +26.5
Missed by 3.5 points
Wisconsin -8
Covered by 28 points
USF -3
Covered by 14 points
Bad Lines record
This week: 2-1
Season: 2-1
My Top 25
1) Ohio State
2) Michigan
3) USC
The Trojans haven’t played nearly up to the level of Ohio State or Michigan, but they still look better than anyone below them.
4) West Virginia
5) Louisville
If you penalize USC for their close calls against decent teams, then you must hit the Cardinals for their struggles against lousy Cincinnatti.
6) Florida
This looks about right for the Gators; one bad half does not an entire season of work undo.
7) Tennessee
8) Cal
9) Rutgers
I’m not sure anyone else has Rutgers anywhere near this high, but I really think they’ve been playing very well. That crushing of Navy was a real eye-opener.
10) Boise State
11) Clemson
12) Wisconsin
13) Texas
Flipping these two after Texas struggled for a while against Baylor.
14) Arkansas
15) Auburn
I just can’t justify having the Tigers above the Razorbacks, even after Auburn’s win over Florida. Maybe if they keep playing well, but not right now.
16) Notre Dame
17) LSU
18) Oregon
19) Georgia Tech
20) Missouri
21) Oklahoma
With AP gone, this won’t last long, but you can’t dock them until their on-field performance calls for it.
22) Nebraska
23) Wake Forest
24) Texas A&M
25) Pitt
Dropped:
Georgia, Iowa, Washington
Last Week:
1) Ohio State
2) Florida
3) Michigan
4) Louisville
5) USC
6) West Virginia
7) Tennessee
8) Cal
9) Boise State
10) Missouri
11) Clemson
12) Texas
13) Wisconsin
14) Arkansas
15) Rutgers
16) Notre Dame
17) LSU
18) Auburn
19) Oregon
20) Iowa
21) Georgia Tech
22) Oklahoma
23) Washington
24) Georgia
25) Nebraska
Soapbox Moment
This week’s gripe: the polls. Doubtless you’re all familiar with how the system can be massively flawed, with voters constantly acting like sheep and so often embracing the “we won’t drop you till you lose no matter how badly you play” philosophy. And that’s without even going into the specific injustices that are already out there this season. But this isn’t going to be a rant about that. Instead I want to look at a very specific part of the poll system: the deadline (around noonish on Sunday for poll submissions).
Yes, the deadline, that seemingly innocuous thing that nobody really thinks about, yet wreaks incredible havoc on the whole system. Why do I say that? It’s simple; the people who vote almost never actually have enough time to do a decent job. Is it really that much of a surprise that voters, especially the coaches, don’t take their responsibilities seriously when the deadline is so tight that it’s impossible to do a good job?
Consider the following example: you’re Urban Meyer. Your team just lost at Auburn, and you’re on the flight back to Florida. You won’t have time in the morning after you get up to put together a poll, so you have to do it tonight if you want to do it at all, unless you just hand it to some grad assistant and move on to other things. Do you:
A) Talk to some of the players and try to engage them in a meaningful way when the loss is still fresh
B) Chat with the assistant coaches and try to figure out what went wrong and how to improve the game plan for the future
C) Pore over the national box scores and recaps so that you can have a really informed opinion for your midseason ballot.
Or how about Larry Coker in the aftermath of the brawl, one of the most embarrassing moments in Miami history? Do you:
A) Spend time with the players to let them know that their behavior was unacceptable and punishments are coming?
B) Spend time chatting with the university administration to make sure you still have a job in the morning?
C) Work on your ballot?
Trust me: there isn’t a coach in the country who’d choose C in either of those circumstances. And, truth be told, even coaches who aren’t dealing with extraordinary situations still don’t have the time to actually go over the weekend’s games and have an informed opinion. The whole reason that the coaches have a vote is that they’re supposed to be able to look at the video of a game and understand it well enough to decide how good a team is. And yet they usually struggle to have enough time to even read over the box scores and AP recaps, let alone do any serious analysis. Is it really any wonder that they simply choose to “go with the crowd”, when they don’t have the time to do anything else?
How do we fix this? Simple: bump back the voting deadline to sometime on Monday. It’s not like the whole nation is paying attention to the rankings right when they come out, given that the NFL is on and it tends to dominate discussions even through Monday night. Moreover, this change would actually give coaches time to look over some game film from the week’s games, and that can only help matters. At the least, it will take away the only real excuse they have for doing a lousy job with the poll.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com