Conference USA Fearless Predictions, Week 9

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 26, 2006


Conference USA Week Nine Fearless Predictions and Previews


Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8
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How'd we do so far? Straight up 49-18 ... ATS 31-27-2 ATS


Conference USA Game of the Week

UTEP (4-3) at Tulsa (6-1), 8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, October 27
Why to watch: Tulsa’s drive toward consecutive Conference USA titles continues with its toughest test in almost a month, a visit from pass-happy UTEP.  The Golden Hurricane has hit its stride rolling to a five-game winning streak behind a balanced offense and the league’s stingiest defense.  A win on Friday would eliminate the Miners from division contention, making the West a two-horse race between Tulsa and Houston.  With rumors swirling that head coach Steve Kragthorpe will be the target of North Carolina AD Dick Baddour to replace John Bunting, the Hurricane has to remain focused on the task at hand.  UTEP was half-good on Saturday, leading Houston 17-10 at the break before imploding in the final two quarters.  The pitch-and-catch combo of Jordan Palmer to Johnnie Lee Higgins versus Tulsa’s league-leading pass defense will be a delicious game-within-a-game at Skelly Stadium.
Why UTEP might win: Tulsa has feasted on softer Eastern Division foes this month, but will they be as dominant versus better competition?  Remember, this is the same Hurricane team that got annihilated by BYU and needed a missed extra point to escape with a win at Navy.  Palmer is at his best when he has time to survey the secondary, something he’ll enjoy against a Tulsa defense that has just nine sacks all year.
Why Tulsa might win: UTEP can neither run the ball nor stop the run, two surefire ways to get mauled by Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane will control the clock and keep the Miner offense on the sidelines with a physical ground game that’s churned out 625 yards and ten touchdowns over the last three games.  The Miners will have no solution for Courtney Tennial and Tarrion Adams, who returned from an injury to catch five passes last weekend.  Plus, when it falls behind, UTEP will have a rough time clawing back against a Tulsa pass defense that’s No. 2 nationally, allowing less than five yards per attempt.
Who to watch: Part linebacker and part safety, Bobby Blackshire is the closest thing Tulsa has to a star on its non-name defense.  The versatile senior, who does a lot of freelancing for the Hurricane, will be in position to increase his team-leading three interceptions.
What will happen: Well-coached, complete teams just don’t lose to one-dimensional opponents, especially at home.  The Tulsa defense will render Palmer a non-factor in the first half, while the offense builds a lead on the ground and with a couple of timely play-action passes from Paul Smith.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 33 … UTEP 17 ... Line: Tulsa -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ...
3      

Army (3-5) at Tulane (2-5), 2:00 EST, Saturday, October 28
Why to watch: Army has been stuck on three wins the last two weeks as it clings to the hope it can rally for six wins and a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  With a loss this week, the Cadets will once again end a season with the annual Army-Navy game.  Freshman Carson Williams replaced the ineffective David Pevoto at quarterback in last week’s loss to TCU, signaling a changing of the guard at West Point.  After following the script by losing at UTEP and Auburn, Tulane has an opportunity to secure some much-needed momentum with upcoming games against Army and Marshall.  The Green Wave doesn’t play much defense, but with future pro Lester Ricard airing it out, Tulane is capable of scoring points in a hurry.
Why Army might win: Williams’ first career start couldn’t come against a better opponent.  The freshman, who provided a little spark in the second half last week, will face a Tulane defense that’s 112th nationally against the pass, having allowed 15 touchdown passes to just four picks.  The Green Wave will struggle to beat anyone this year if they continue residing near the I-A basement in turnover margin.
Why Tulane might win: The Green Wave has begun to click, getting at least 100 yards on the ground and 200 yards through the air in each of the last three games, including last week at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  The Ricard to Preston Brown connection, which has hooked up 20 times over the last two games, will have another big game against an average Army defense, particularly if top pass-rusher Cameron Craig misses a another week with a sprained ankle.
Who to watch: Matt Forte has given the Tulane offense balance in October, running for more than 100 yards in each of the last three games.  He’ll crack the century mark for a fourth straight week against an Army unit that’s 105th nationally against the run.
What will happen: It’ll be asking too much for the freshman Williams to keep Army stride-for-stride with a versatile and improving Tulane offense that’ll amass more than 400 yards and four touchdowns in the Superdome.
CFN Prediction: Tulane 33 … Army 23 ... Line: Tulsa -5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ...
1.5
 
UCF (2-5) at Houston (5-3), 4:00 EST, Saturday, October 28
Why to watch: Desperate for a victory and losing at halftime, Houston rallied for a 31-17 win over UTEP that could represent a turning point in its season.  The gut-check performance with their backs against the wall means the Cougars remain just a game behind West-leading Tulsa, which visits Robertson Stadium a week from Saturday.  QB Kevin Kolb continues to perform like a non-BCS Heisman contender, throwing for 2,303 yards and 18 touchdowns, while getting picked just twice.  Fresh off a spanking at the hands of Rice, UCF is in the midst of a freefall.  The same squad that won eight games and the league’s Eastern Division in 2005 has lost five of six games, while surrendering 92 points over the last two games.
Why UCF might win: With UTEP in the rear view mirror and Tulsa on the horizon, can Houston get caught looking past UCF?  You bet.  This is the same flaky bunch that got stunned by Louisiana-Lafayette a week after scaring Miami in the Orange Bowl.  With Kyle Israel taking over at quarterback last week and RB Kevin Smith heating up, the offense showed surprising results, racking up 482 yards and 24 first downs.
Why Houston might win: Things are not about to get any easier for a Golden Knight defense that’s been absolutely dreadful in 2006, which will contend with Conference USA’s.  The unit has allowed each of its last three opponents to rush for more than 230 yards, dropping UCF to 112th nationally in total defense.  Kolb will pad his stats, while the Cougar running back by committee will flourish for a second straight week.
Who to watch: Getting shown a lot of Love is not necessarily a good thing for Houston’s opponents.  Cougar DT Marquay Love has provided a presence all year for a Houston defense that shut out UTEP in the second half of last week’s pivotal win.  Love contributed seven tackles and three tackles for loss to earn Conference USA Defensive Player of the Week.
What will happen: Houston would be ripe if UCF wasn’t in such a state of disrepair.  However, the Knights are so pathetic defensively, even a potentially unfocused Cougars will run away and hide by early in the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: Houston 37 … UCF 17 ... Line: Houston -18.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ...
2.5

Memphis (1-6) at Marshall (2-5), 4:30 EST, Saturday, October 28
Why to watch: The Eastern Division basement will be at stake this weekend in Huntington, hardly the sort of thing that belongs on a billboard.  Memphis and Marshall have been two of this year’s biggest disappointments in Conference USA, combining for just a single win over a I-A opponent.  That banner win came last Saturday as the Herd delivered its best effort of 2006 in a 31-24 upset at UAB.  With winnable home games the next two weeks, it could still be playing meaningful football in November.  Memphis has lost five straight games, sinking to new depths each week.  If this were baseball, Tommy West would already be auditioning a bunch of minor leaguers for next season.
Why Memphis might win: Marshall is hardly on solid footing after one victory.  The Herd is still one of the worst teams in the country at holding on to the football and hasn’t held an opponent under 200 yards passing since the opener.  The Tigers will turn the offense over to Martin Hankins, who’ll hook up all evening with talented receivers Ryan Scott and Duke Calhoun.
Why Marshall might win: Ahmad Bradshaw.  Marshall’s star back showed last week in Birmingham that he’s capable of literally carrying a team to victory, churning out a career-best 242 yards on 25 carries.  The Herd leads Conference USA in rushing, while Memphis is next-to-last at stopping the run, which is a recipe for long drives and a gassed Tiger defense by the fourth quarter.
Who to watch: Bradshaw’s the one reason why you’ll endure a Marshall football game these days.  He’s the best that’s ever played for the Herd, despite getting minimal support from the passing attack the last two seasons.  Against a Memphis defense that’s allowed 16 touchdowns on the ground in 2006, Bradshaw’s single-game rushing mark may be rewritten again this week.
What will happen: Marshall’s big, physical offensive line will blow Memphis off the ball, keeping the Tiger offense on the sidelines and fueling a two-game winning streak.
CFN Prediction: Marshall 31 … Memphis 23 ... Line: Marshall -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ...
1.5

East Carolina (3-4) at Southern Miss (4-3), 8:00 EST, CSTV, Saturday, October 28
Why to watch: With most of the Eastern Division floundering, this week’s game could decide who represents the conference in December’s league championship game.  East Carolina, fresh off a convincing win over SMU, trails division-leading Southern Miss by just a half-game with five left.  The Pirates’ challenge will be locating consistency and winning on the road after playing the last five games in Greenville.  Southern Miss returns to league play after getting humbled by Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, 36-6.  The Golden Eagles might get back freshman phenom Damion Fletcher, who was leading Conference USA in rushing before injuring his knee in the Oct. 14 victory over Houston.
Why East Carolina might win: Even if Fletcher plays, Southern Miss has one of the weakest offenses in the league, averaging just 320 yards and 21 points a game.  East Carolina, on the other hand, is beginning to heat up, thanks to the resurgence of QB James Pinkney and WR Aundrae Allison, who are healthy and coming off their best games of the season.  The Pirates will move the ball through the air against an Eagle D that’s just 67th in the country in pass defense.
Why Southern Miss might win: Not only is East Carolina venturing out of state for the first time since Sept. 9, but they’ve got to travel to Hattiesburg, where the home team has already beaten NC State and Houston.  QB Jeremy Young’s improved play will continue this week against a Pirate defense that’s allowed 13 touchdown passes over the last six games.  Fletcher’s return will be a smooth one, considering East Carolina is 103rd in the country in run defense.
Who to watch: Allison, who’s coming off a brilliant 13-catch effort and is capable of taking over a game, is going to draw the attention of Southern Miss SS Brandon Sumrall.  Although he’s built more like a corner, the sophomore leads the Eagles in tackles and interceptions, and will introduce himself to Allison every chance he gets Saturday night.
What will happen: East Carolina is a confident bunch, but winning at Roberts Stadium is a whole lot different than handling SMU at home.  Southern Miss, which is a completely different team in Hattiesburg, will get a challenge before pulling away on three Darren McCaleb field goals.
CFN Prediction: Southern Miss 30 … East Carolina 21 ... Line: Southern Miss -6
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ...
2.5

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