Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Week 9, Part Two

Preview and predictions for the week nine Big 12 games

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

How'd we do so far? 46-8 straight up, 21-25-2 ATS 

Week 9 Big 12 Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games

Iowa State (3-5) at Kansas State (4-4)  3:35 PM EST Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: This is as close to a bowl elimination game as it gets in late October. Iowa State has to win three of its final four games against KSU, Kansas, Colorado and Missouri, but is coming in winless in Big 12 play and on a three-game losing streak. It hasn't even been close in conference play so far failing to get closer than 14 points in any of the four losses. Kansas State might only need to win two of its final four, but it has to play Texas and the Colorado and Kansas games are on the road. This is a struggling team losing two straight to Nebraska and Missouri by a combined score of 62-24.
Why Iowa State Might Win: Kansas State came up with a stunning three-minute flurry late in the fourth quarter to beat Oklahoma State, but other than that, its offense hasn't even been close. QB Josh Freeman went from struggling to awful, and there hasn't been any consistent scoring. It might not take more than 20 points to pull off the win, but ...
Why Kansas State Might Win: ... if the KSU offense was ever going to explode, this would be the week. The Cyclone defense is awful ranking dead last in the Big 12 in scoring defense giving up 31 points per game and doing nothing to get to the quarterback. Freeman might be having problems, but he'll have plenty of time to work. On the flip side, the Wildcats are great at getting into the backfield and should be in QB Bret Meyer's face all game long. However ...
Who to Watch: ... if Meyer gets any time, the middle of the field should be wide open for the deep ball all game long. KSU star safety Marcus Watts, the team's leader in interceptions, tried to gut it out with an injured hand, but he's now out for the year leaving a gaping void in leadership, special teams play, hitting and overall playmaking ability. Andrew Erker started the first four games of the season when Watts was trying to get over a hip injury, but there's a huge drop-off in talent.
What Will Happen: Iowa State isn't any good, but Kansas State is a bit worse ... at the moment. The young Wildcats will be something special in the future; it just won't be this week. Meyer and the passing game will get back on track and simply outbomb KSU.
CFN Prediction: Iowa State 28 ... Kansas State 20 ... Line: Texas -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 2

Texas (7-1) at Texas Tech (5-3)  7 PM EST TBS Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: Texas has the inside track on the Big 12 South title, but it's not a lock. Texas A&M and Oklahoma each only has one loss in conference play, and Texas Tech is hoping things have finally turned around so it can get in the hunt. The Red Raiders suffered the indignity of giving Colorado its first win of the season, and then bombed away on Iowa State. One big last minute pass against Texas A&M aside, this hasn't been a strong team against the defenses with a pulse, and it needs this win to start to generate a bit of a buzz going into the season's finishing kick. Texas has won six straight with nice wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska thrusting it back into the national title hunt. Now it's about appearances needing to impress the human polls to move up in the BCS rankings.
Why Texas Might Win: Pass rush and ball hawking. Only Cal has created more turnovers so far than Texas, but the Longhorns lead the nation in forced fumbles. Even with a banged up defense (more on that in a moment), the UT pass rush should be able to get to QB Graham Harrell and force him to hurry his throws. So far, pressure on the sophomore has meant bad things for the Red Raider offense. Tech also has to try to break the recent hex of getting bombed on by the Longhorn offense. Texas has won the last three games in the series averaging 49 points per game. With the way the Longhorn passing game has been been working, points shouldn't be a problem.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: The Texas defense will give up big plays. The secondary has as much talent as any in the country, but it got hit by Nebraska for three long scores, and gave up 302 passing yards to Iowa State and 320 yards by Baylor. Even pedestrian passing games like Oklahoma's and Rice's were able to put up some yards (even though most came when the outcomes had mostly been decided). If the tight Texas Tech passing game shows up, 400 yards is a possibility.
Who to Watch: Obviously, the last thing you want when facing the Texas Tech offense is a dinged up D, and that's what Texas has.
Texas has to do some patching on its defense after losing tackle Derek Lokey to a broken leg against Nebraska. While he's hardly a household name, he was the rock of the line who was the epitome of an anchor. Linebacker Robert Killebrew is likely out with a banged up knee, linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy will be gone with an injured finger, and top defensive backs Tarrell Brown, Marcus Griffin, and Michael Griffin are gutting it out with a variety of problems.
What Will Happen: It'll be a simple formula for Texas: run the ball early, open things up for Colt McCoy and the passing game, and force a few momentum-killing turnovers. Texas Tech will get its yards, but the Longhorn secondary will provide a bit of a smack on every catch.
CFN Prediction: Texas 38 ... Texas Tech 17 ... Line: Texas -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 4

Texas A&M (7-1) at Baylor (4-4)  7:05 PM EST Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: Yes, Baylor and Texas A&M are each still in the Big 12 title race. A&M has more control with Texas still on the slate, while Baylor needs the Longhorns to lose twice. Just to bring up championship scenarios for Baylor might sound insane, but with thrilling wins over Colorado and Kansas, to go along with a dominant performance against Kansas State, the dream is still there. At the very least, the hope is for a bowl bid needing to win two of the final four games. For A&M, this will officially conclude the easy portion of the program with Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas left to play. While it's 7-1, and one play against Texas Tech from being unbeaten, it's a shaky 7-1 getting a miraculous overtime win over Oklahoma State to go along with wins over Missouri, Kansas and Army by six points or fewer each. Theses are two entertaining teams that played classics over the last two seasons with A&M winning last year 16-13 and BU winning 35-34 in 2004.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: Baylor might have become the second coming of Texas Tech, but A&M has the offense to keep up the pace. The Bear defense hasn't slowed anyone down giving up running yards in chunks, and giving up several big play after big play against decent passing teams. The BU defensive front doesn't have the talent to slow down the Aggie running game if it gets on a roll. Jorvorskie Lane should be able to power it inside, Stephen McGee should be able to run the option on the outside, and the offense should be able to control the clock to keep the BU offense off the field.
Why Baylor Might Win: The A&M secondary was ranked among the best in the nation over the first four games, and then it played someone who could throw the forward pass. Texas Tech threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns, Missouri threw for 306 yards, and Oklahoma state threw for three scores. The other problem has been making big plays with only four interceptions on the year with three coming against Army. The Bear passing game has found its groove throwing for 714 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two weeks and should chuck for over 300 without a problem.
Who to Watch: It's no coincidence that Baylor's offense started to take flight once it started to get Paul Mosley and the ground game working a little bit. Mosley missed time and was limited over the first five games, and then he got 20 carries in the win over Colorado for 85 yards and two touchdowns, and averaged 10.7 yards per carry on just 13 carries against Texas and Kansas. Bell threw 55 times against Kansas, but the more Mosley is in the mix, the more effective the offense is.
What Will Happen: Upset. A&M will pound it and pound it some more, but the secondary is about to be lit up like a Christmas tree. As long as BU doesn't lose the turnover battle by a large margin, it'll throw its way to the win. 
CFN Prediction: Baylor 35 ... Texas A&M 31 ... Line: Texas A&M -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 3.5

Week 9 Big 12 Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games