Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Week 9
Posted Oct 26, 2006

The big games are in the Big 12 where it could be upset Saturday with Texas going to Texas Tech, Nebraska traveling to Oklahoma State, Texas A&M about to bomb away with Baylor, and Allen Patrick and Oklahoma trying to keep their title hopes alive at Missouri. All the Fearless Predictions to be up throughout the day.

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

How'd we do so far? 46-8 straight up, 21-25-2 ATS 

Week 9 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Big 12 Game of the Week

Oklahoma (5-2) at Missouri (7-1)  12 PM EST ABC Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: Sort of a poor man's Big 12 title matchup, Missouri and Oklahoma each hold out title hopes. The Tigers, who are still unnoticed and underrated by most of the college football world, got over the tough loss to Texas A&M to throttle Kansas State last week. While they could use this win for more street cred, they can afford a loss and still win the North as long as they beat Nebraska next week and close out with wins over Iowa State and Kansas. The Sooners don't have any margin for error needing to keep winning while hoping for Texas to lose twice. This has been a one-sided series going back to the old Big 8 days with the Sooners winning 27 of the last 30 meetings.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: The defense has finally turned up the heat. After being one of the slight disappointments over the first half of the season, and a huge problem when it came to getting to the quarterback. Fine, Middle Tennessee, Iowa State and Colorado are hardly juggernauts, but OU still kept the three to 12 points combined and kept Texas in relative check outside of a few big plays in the third quarter. The OU linebackers are fast enough to stay with the Missouri tight ends and snuff out the medium pass plays.
Why Missouri Might Win: Oklahoma is 5-0 at home, and 0-2 away from Memorial Stadium losing to Oregon and Texas. Outside of the loss to A&M, no one's been close to beating Mizzou, and OU doesn't quite have the offensive firepower to throw any curveballs at one of the Big 12's top defenses. The back seven is tremendous at shutting down the short to midrange pass, and there's no threat of OU going deep. Even though the Sooner O line has been a nice surprise, it's not the type that'll plow over the Tiger defensive front. In other words, the Sooners might not be able to control the clock or the tempo.
Who to Watch: Without Adrian Peterson, for the Sooners to beat the better teams they have to get rock-solid performances from everyone else, and there has to be some threat of the home run. Paul Thompson completed 17 of 26 passes against Colorado, but he threw nothing down the field keeping to a conservative, very, very short passing game. Allen Patrick might have rushed for 110 yards, but it took 35 carries to do it. Missouri's defense, even without top pass rushing end Brian Smith, who's out with a hip injury, is way too good, and the offense is way too balanced for OU to not open things up a bit. If WR Malcolm Kelly doesn't make several big plays, OU is probably going to lose, and lose big.
What Will Happen: Here's the statement game Missouri has been looking for. Even though this isn't the same OU without Adrian Peterson, it's still a legitimate top 20, possibly top 15, team with the talent and attitude to pull off the tough road win. Mizzou's offensive line will make sure that doesn't happen.
CFN Prediction
: Missouri .27 ... Oklahoma 20 .. Line: Missouri -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 4

Colorado (1-7) at Kansas (3-5)  2 PM EST Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: This might be a disastrous season for Dan Hawkins and Colorado, but there's still a snowball's chance in Miami of winning the Big 12 North. By winning out, CU is in if it gets a complete collapse from Missouri, and a Nebraska loss along the way. Fine, so that's not going to happen, so it's about improving week after week and trying to build towards next year. Consistency is the first step. The Buffs crushed Texas Tech, and then got dinked and dunked on to death by Oklahoma 24-3. Colorado has owned KU with five straight wins in the series and winning 18 out of the last 21. The Jayhawks have been masters of the hard-luck loss on a recent four-game losing streak, but at 3-5, they still have an honest shot at a bowl game with winnable games against Iowa State and Kansas State ahead.
Why Colorado Might Win: If Colorado was ever going to get its anemic passing game going, this would be the week. The Kansas secondary hasn't just been awful, it's been lousy in crunch time getting bombed on over and over again in the second half. Over the last four games, KU has allowed an average of 360 passing yards with 14 touchdowns. The Buffs aren't going to hit the 200-yard mark, they haven't all year, but they should be effective enough to open things up for their decent running game. However ...
Why Kansas Might Win: ... it's asking a lot for the CU passing game to work. Bernard Jackson has been anything but efficient, and if he's off, forget about any hope of a Buff win. The Colorado secondary isn't as bad as KU's, but it's not all that far off allowing 230 yards or more in every game by last week's Sooner loss, and Paul Thompson completed 17 of 26 passes with a touchdown. Even though KU likes to have a near-perfect offensive balance, the passing game should open up.
Who to Watch: Kerry Meier might be KU's best quarterback, but the team hasn't exactly done much with him under center. Forgetting the layups against Northwestern State and UL Monroe, the Jayhawks lost to a horrible Toledo team, got bombed on by Oklahoma State, and lost to Baylor when Meier was quarterbacking. Even though those losses were hardly the freshman's fault, a quarterback is judged by wins and losses. On the plus side, he's limited his mistakes since missing three games with an injury only throwing one interception after throwing seven picks in his first three games. He needed to be a bomber over the last two weeks, and wasn't. This week, he needs to keep mistakes to a minimum, keep the Buff linebackers guessing with his running ability, and keep the chains moving.
What Will Happen: Colorado doesn't have the offense to keep up any sort of pace, but its defense, especially against the run, is just good enough to keep KU RB Jon Cornish in check and keep Meier from running wild. KU will turn the ball over, CU won't. That will be the difference.
CFN Prediction
: Colorado 23 ... Kansas 20 ... Line: Kansas -2
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 2.5

Nebraska (6-2) at Oklahoma State (4-3)  3:30 PM ABC EST Saturday October 28th
Why to Watch: Nebraska was so freakin' close to being considered among the elite and being thrown into the national title discussion, but it couldn't close against Texas and now has to hope to get through the Big 12 season and get another shot in the championship game. With the big showdown against Missouri coming next week, the Huskers have to stay focused against an Oklahoma State team lost in brutally painful fashion to Texas A&M giving up a late touchdown and then losing in overtime on a blocked extra point. Still in the hunt for a bowl, OSU has to find two more wins despite dealing with a nasty finishing kick with Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech along with a suddenly tough matchup against Baylor. OSU doesn't just have to fight the Huskers, it has to fight history going 36-1-1 in the last 38 meetings (after winning the first two) with the one victory coming in 2002 under Les Miles.
Why Nebraska Might Win: Nebraska's offense might be too balanced for the OSU defense that hasn't dealt with anyone with this kind of an attack. The Huskers were a bit vanilla throughout the season, and then shocked Texas with several big plays showing the explosion that was missing. The Cowboy defense should be able to slow down the run or the pass, but not both, and it'll have to deal with at least two home runs that might change the momentum. Most likely, the biggest problems will come against the short range Husker passing game with Zac Taylor able to throw at will. Nebraska is currently fourth in the nation in passing efficiency. However ...
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: ... how do you throw off an efficient passing game? Hit the quarterback. Few are doing a better job of consistently getting into the backfield than the Cowboys with their attacking defense cranking out 25 sacks and 61 tackles for loss. Taylor was effective against Texas despite getting hit repeatedly, but he also got help from Maurice Purify breaking tackles for a long score and Brandon Jackson taking a short pass the distance. If OSU can limit the long plays, and bomb away on the bad Husker secondary, it should be in it until the end.
Who to Watch: After getting knocked out in the second quarter of the Texas A&M game with a concussion, OSU QB Bobby Reid is expected to start this week. Taylor might be efficient, but Reid has been even sharper with 17 touchdown passes and six interceptions, with three coming in a blowout win over Arkansas State. For Nebraska, the running game is starting to clear up a little bit with Brandon Jackson starting to earn more and more respect over the last few weeks. Marlon Lucky is likely to still be the starter, and Kenny Wilson and Cody Glenn will each get work, but Jackson, especially on his touchdown against the Longhorns, showed off the explosiveness that might get him the carries he got against Iowa State and Kansas State when he ran for 208 yards against the two.
What Will Happen: This will be fun. Expect lots of big plays, lots of passing, and lots of home runs. Nebraska will have a few more than the Cowboys, but it'll be a dogfight.
CFN Prediction
: Nebraska 28 ... Oklahoma State 20 ... Line: Nebraska -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Flicka) ... 3.5

Week 9 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games