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SEC Fearless Predictions , Nov. 4, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 2, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week ten SEC games


SEC
East  Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State
- Part SEC Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

How are the picks so far? SU: 62-10 ... ATS: 37-27-1

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 10
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Northwestern State (4-4) at Ole Miss (2-7)  2 PM EST Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: Northwestern State gets its third shot at a D-I team this year after losing to Kansas and Baylor earlier in the year by a combined score of 96 to 28. Ole Miss needs all the wins it can get, even against D-IAA teams with the rumblings around the program starting with a 2-7 start and a 1-5 SEC record with the lone victory coming against Vanderbilt. With LSU up next before the rivalry showdown against Mississippi State, the Rebels need something positive to build on.
Why Northwestern State Might Win: The Ole Miss passing game is erratic at best only throwing for over 200 yards one time this year, a loss to Wake Forest. The Demons have one of D-IAA's best run defenses only allowing more than 100 yards three times this year and winning two of those games. This is a relatively fast group that should be able to keep Ole Miss QB Brent Schaeffer contained. However ...
Why Ole Miss Might Win: ... it's not a big front six. The Demons play a 4-2-5 with the linebackers roughly the size of big D-I safeties and little bulk up front. Ole Miss doesn't have to be fancy; it should be able to pound the ball up the middle as much as it wants to. This isn't a high scoring NSU offense; 21 points will probably get it done for the Rebels as long as they don't have problems with turnovers and don't provide the Demons with several short fields.
Who to Watch: It's not a positive when the most dynamic offensive player is a kicker. NSU's Robert Weeks has been the offense throughout the year hitting 17 of 23 field goals with most of his misses either coming from deep or getting blocked. He holds the team's single-season record for field goals and leads both D-I and D-IAA in attempts. His counterpart, freshman Joshua Shene, has been a nice surprise for Ole Miss hitting eight of his ten field goal attempts along with all 13 of his extra points.
What Will Happen: Ole Miss head coach Ed Orgeron can't afford to take it easy on his alma mater. NSU simply doesn't have enough offense to do much if the Rebel defense has its head in the game.
CFN Prediction
: Ole Miss 34 ... Northwestern State 10.. Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 1

Arkansas State (5-3) at Auburn (8-1)  2:30 PM EST Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: Didn't Auburn just get a week off? It seems like it after resting Kenny Irons and going through the motions against Tulane a few weeks ago before having problems in a tight win against Ole Miss. Looking to somehow squeeze its way into the national title game, the Tigers have to start winning more impressively to generate more of a buzz. It would also help if Arkansas could lose twice along the way to open the door for a possible SEC title appearance. Arkansas State is still trying to get the license plate of the Florida Atlantic truck that ran over the Indians in a 29-0 shocker last week. Still one of the favorites in the Sun Belt race, ASU is looking for a decent showing before a showdown against Middle Tennessee next week.
Why Arkansas State Might Win: Auburn might be taking the week off as it looks ahead Georgia. This might be a fast Tiger defense, but it's not huge. The Indians have a big line that should be able to pound a little bit. The defense is the best in the Sun Belt and is tremendous against the pass with a good, consistent secondary. However ...
Why Auburn Might Win: ... Florida Atlantic isn't exactly full of 300 pounders on its defensive front and it held ASU to just six net rushing yards. If the Owl speed can get into the backfield and come up with four tackles for loss and three sacks, then the speedy Tiger defense should wreak havoc. The Indians can't throw more than a few yards down the field, so if/when Auburn shuts holds up against the run, it should be over after a few scores.
Who to Watch: Over the first part of the season, Arkansas State split up the quarterback chores between Corey Leonard and Travis Hewitt until Leonard took over the gig. Then it all fell apart last week as Leonard completed just seven of 16 passes for 55 yards eight three interceptions against ASU. Hewitt wasn't any better completing two of eight passes with two interceptions. Even though Leonard is the starter, Hewitt should quickly see time if there's another disaster. They don't need to be amazing; they just have to get the passing game moving just enough to take the heat off Reggie Arnold and the ground attack.
What Will Happen: Auburn will make the score whatever it wants to.
CFN Prediction
: Auburn 38 ... Arkansas State 7 .. Line: Auburn -30
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 1.5

Arkansas (7-1) at South Carolina (5-3)  7:45 PM EST ESPN Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: The month long break from playing a real team is over. Still glowing from the stunning win over Auburn at the beginning of October, the Hogs now play the Gamecocks, Tennessee, and LSU (along with Mississippi State) with a chance to finally prove to the world that they're the real deal. All Arkansas has to do is win three of the four and it's playing for the SEC title, but if it wins all four, and the SEC title, then things might get really interesting. South Carolina has Middle Tennessee in a few weeks to all but assure a sixth win and a bowl game, but to start to get any national respect, it has to come up with at least one win against Arkansas, Florida and Clemson. Even though the Gamecocks aren't beating anyone with a pulse, they're playing relatively well handing tough with Georgia, Auburn and Tennessee. They could desperately use this win to move up in the SEC pecking order.
Why Arkansas Might Win: Coffee's for closers only. South Carolina might be playing well, but it doesn't seem to have the "it" factor, however you want to define it, in close, tight games unless it comes up with a little trickery. Against the top teams, every time a big play needs to be made in crunch time, and every time there's a chance to turn the tide late, it hasn't happened. The USC offense isn't a juggernaut by any stretch living and dying with the short to midrange passing of Syvelle Newton. That plays into the hands of the Hogs, who are fantastic and avoiding getting dinked and dunked on thanks to a speedy back seven that's always around the ball.
Why South Carolina Might Win: It's simple when it comes to Arkansas; stop the run, stop the run, stop the run. South Carolina, led by star LB Jasper Brinkley, has gotten better and better each week after struggling with Georgia's ground game in the second week of the season and getting run over, around and through by Wofford's option attack. The Gamecock D has only allowed seven rushing scores on the year, with two coming against Auburn, and has a strong tackling, speedy secondary that should keep Darren McFadden and Felix Jones from turning good runs into back-breaking killers. If Arkansas wants to win, it'll have to get something going through the air, which begs the question ...
Who to Watch: Can Marcus Monk make anyone worry about the Arkansas passing game. With Mustain still figuring out what he's doing, it's up to Monk, the team's top receiver, to provide some semblance of a deep threat. The Arkansas backs just need a sliver of daylight before they're gone, so it's up to Monk to try to do something, anything, to get the safeties to worry about him. Last week he caught five passes for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the win over ULM, but outside of a 50-yard bomb for a score against Auburn, he hasn't done too much field stretching despite averaging 18 yards per catch.
What Will Happen: South Carolina will climb up the mountain again only to be unable to get over the top. Arkansas is the real deal, and it'll show it with its unstoppable ground game.
CFN Prediction
: Arkansas 24 .... South Carolina 20 .. Line: Arkansas -3
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 3.5

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 10
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