C-USA Fearless Predictions, Nov. 4, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 2, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Ten Conference USA games, Part 2


Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

- Week 10 C-USA Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? Straight up 53-19 ... ATS 34-29-2 ATS

Tulane (3-5) at Marshall (3-5), 7:30 EST, CSTV, Saturday, November 4
Why to watch: Once down-and-out Marshall has turned back-to-back wins into hope that the 2006 season could still end with a bowl game and a Conference USA championship.  Despite opening 1-5, the Herd controls its own destiny in the Eastern Division.  Four wins to close out the year will be parlayed into a date with either Tulsa or Houston in December.  Ahmad Bradshaw was as productive as any back in the country in October, gaining 539 yards and scoring eight touchdowns.  No game involving Tulane this year has had less than 54 total points, so if nothing else, its games are often entertaining.  The Green Wave is being led by senior QB Lester Ricard, who’s coming off a 409-yard, three-touchdown day in last Saturday’s win over Army.
Why Tulane might win: The way the offense has been playing, the Green Wave can simply out gun many of the weaker teams in Conference USA.  Ricard has been on fire and Matt Forte has run for more than 100 yards in each of the last four games, a troubling combination for a Marshall defense that’s ranked 102nd nationally against the pass and 106th overall.
Why Marshall might win: Tulane can’t score if it doesn’t touch the ball.  With its big offensive line, Marshall will run the ball about 45 times, controlling the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense on the sidelines for long stretches of time.  The Herd D isn’t all that stout, but Tulane’s unit is downright debilitated, allowing 35 points and nearly 400 yards a game.
Who to watch: Marshall has a budding Freshman All-America candidate in TE Cody Slate, who leads the team with 363 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions.  Slate had a breakout day in last week’s win over Memphis, solidifying himself as the preferred option when Bernie Morris or Jimmy Skinner drop back to throw.
What will happen: With both defenses playing so poorly, the potential exists for a very entertaining, back-and-forth shootout.  Marshall will get 150 yards out of Bradshaw and a third win in-a-row for the first time since 2004.
CFN Prediction: Marshall 34 … Tulane 20 ... Line: Marshall -9
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 2


Rice (3-5) at UTEP (4-4), 9:00 EST, Saturday, November 4
Why to watch: Purely in terms of entertainment, this game has a chance to be sneaky good Saturday night.  There should be plenty of offense since both teams can score in bunches, yet haven’t been able to stop anyone in 2006.  Rice has won three of its last four, and can use upcoming games with UTEP, Tulsa, East Carolina and SMU as measuring sticks to see just how far along it’s come in Todd Graham’s inaugural season.  The Miners learned in consecutive losses to Houston and Tulsa that they weren’t quite good enough to win the West this fall.  Now, they’ll have to determine if they’re good enough to win six games and earn a third straight bowl invitation.  The game features Rice’s Jarrett Dillard and UTEP’s Johnnie Lee Higgins, two of this year’s 14 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award.
Why Rice might win: Since getting Chase Clement back under center and exiting the meat grinding portion of its schedule, Rice has won three of four games, while finally turning the corner on offense.  During that stretch, the Owls have averaged 37 points and well over 400 yards a game.  Clement has sizzled and Quinton Smith has been a horse on the ground, forming a diverse attack that’ll move the ball on a suspect Miner defense.
Why UTEP might win: Realizing that the next loss will bump them below .500, the Miners will play with a sense of desperation in El Paso.  UTEP’s offense is the best Rice has seen since September, when it gave up more than 50 points in consecutive games to Texas and Florida State.  The Owls have allowed 21 touchdown passes to just four interceptions this year, a dastardly ratio that portends a monster night for Jordan Palmer and his receivers.
Who to watch: The Tallahassee Quarterback Club might want to bring the Biletnikoff Award to the Sun Bowl Saturday night because Higgins is primed for an electrifying evening, even by his standards.  Rice, which hasn’t stopped anyone in 2006, will be clueless against the senior speedster, who has 56 catches for 898 yards and eight touchdowns and has taken two punts back for scores.
What will happen: UTEP will hold serve at home, but it’s not going to be easy for a team that hasn’t played a complete game all year.  Rice will chuck and duck in the second half to make the final few minutes real compelling.
CFN Prediction: UTEP 38 … Rice 28 ... Line: UTEP -8
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 2


Southern Miss (4-4) at Memphis (1-7), 8:00 EST, ESPN, Sunday, November 5
Why to watch: Southern Miss let a game with East Carolina slip away last weekend, losing its grip on first place in the Eastern Division in the process.  The Golden Eagles are at .500 this late in a season for the first time since 1998, needing to regroup on the fly in order to stay in the hunt for the division and a bowl bid.  Memphis keeps soldiering on, off to its worst start in two decades and officially out of the bowl picture after last week’s two-touchdown loss to Marshall.  As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Tigers, their headliner on defense, S Wesley Smith, is expected to be on the shelf this week with an ankle injury.
Why Southern Miss might win: There’s a sense of urgency around Southern Miss, which knows it has the talent and the schedule to win four straight to finish 8-4.  However, it first must get past Memphis.  The Tigers’ battered ,103rd -ranked defense will prove to be the perfect setting for a Southern Miss offense that struggled throughout October.
Why Memphis might win: Tennessee and Tulsa aside, Memphis has been competitive this year due to an offense that protects Martin Hankins well and is 27th nationally in passing offense.  Feeding receivers Duke Calhoun and Ryan Scott, Hankins will generate points against an Eagle defense that’s underachieved versus better passing teams.  As weak as the Southern Miss offense has been—just 79 points over the last five games—it’ll have a rough time keeping pace with an offense that’s capable of reaching the 20s.
Who to watch: If last week’s 16-carry, 59-yard effort versus East Carolina was any indication, Southern Miss RB Damion Fletcher may have come back a week too early from arthroscopic knee surgery.  With that first game behind him and a Memphis D that’s allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in front of him, Fletcher will flash the form that made him a freshman sensation during the first half of the year.
What will happen: Southern Miss will get just enough from Fletcher and QB Jeremy Young on offense to hold off a feisty, yet out manned group of Tigers.
CFN Prediction: Southern Miss 27 … Memphis 17 ... Line: Southern Miss -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 1.5


- Week 10 C-USA Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games