Conference USA Fearless Predictions, Nov. 4

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 31, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Ten Conference USA games


Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

- Week 10 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? Straight up 53-19 ... ATS 34-29-2 ATS


Conference USA Game of the Week

UAB (3-5) at SMU (4-4), 7:30 EST, ESPN2, Tuesday, October 31
Why to watch: While you’re trick-or-treating Tuesday night, SMU will be playing one of its most significant games since getting whacked with the NCAA death penalty more than two decades ago.  The Mustangs, who are making strides under Phil Bennett and vying for a bowl berth, get a rare national TV audience to show how far along they’ve come in 2006.  Although he’s only a freshman, QB Justin Willis has left no doubt this fall that he’s the future of the program.  Reeling from back-to-back losses to one-win teams, UAB needs an upset in Dallas to stop the bleeding and temporarily silence the critics.  Watson Brown doesn’t accept any excuses, but the Blazers have been buried all season by the weight of their own injuries.
Why UAB might win: The Blazers have taken hits on both sides of the ball, but are as healthy as they’ve been since mid-September and have been able to develop some talented reserves at the skill positions.  UAB has been peaking the last three games on offense, averaging over 30 points, a trend that won’t be curtailed by a Mustang pass defense that’s 117th-nationally and fresh off its worst effort of the year.
Why SMU might win: While the Blazer offense has been sizzling, the defense has been a no-show, allowing an average of more than 400 yards over the last three weeks.  In the loss to Marshall ten days ago, UAB was ripped for 317 yards on the ground.  Those will be frightening omens for this week’s trip to Ford Stadium.  Behind Willis, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns over his last five games, the Mustangs have climbed to fourth in the conference in scoring and have yet to lose a game at home.
Who to watch: DT Adrian Haywood is one of the key reasons SMU leads Conference USA in run defense.  The senior, who’s tops in the league with 11½ tackles for loss, will penetrate a gimpy UAB offensive line, forcing Blazer QBs Chris Williams and Sam Hunt to move the chains exclusively through the air.
What will happen: SMU players realize this is a special night in the evolution of their program, and it’ll show in their level of intensity.  Both teams will move the ball at will, but Willis will exit the game with three touchdowns, MVP honors and a tad less anonymity than he had before ESPN arrived.
CFN Prediction: SMU 34 ... UAB 27  ... Line: SMU -4
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ...
2

Tulsa (7-1) at Houston (6-3), 3:30 EST, CSTV, Saturday, November 4
Why to watch: First place in the Western Division and the prohibitive favorite role for the Conference USA title will be at stake when the league’s top-scoring offenses meet at Robertson Stadium.  Tulsa improved to 7-1 with a comeback win over UTEP last week, knocking the Miners out of the division race, while showing it can persevere when faced with a rare deficit.  Kickoff isn’t until Saturday afternoon, but the Golden Hurricane has already had a huge win this week, getting a verbal statement from head coach Steve Kragthorpe that he has no interest in the North Carolina opening and hopes to finish his career at Tulsa.  Houston has rebounded from a three-game, mid-season slump to win back-to-back games against UTEP and UCF by wide margins.  The battle between Cougar Kevin Kolb and Hurricane Paul Smith will go a long way to determining this year’s all-conference quarterback. 
Why Tulsa might win: The Hurricane’s balance on offense will be a handful for a Cougar defense that allowed 530 yards to UCF last week and has surrendered 31 points in three of the last four games.  While Tulsa’s power running game can wear a defense out, Smith can pick it apart with his precision, underneath passes.  Defensively, the fourth-ranked Hurricane pass defense is one of the few units in the nation capable of containing Kolb and his wave of gifted receivers.
Why Houston might win: The last time Tulsa faced an offense as diverse and explosive as Houston’s, it gave up seven touchdowns and 467 yards in a 49-24 loss to BYU.  The Hurricane is experienced and fundamentally sound on defense, however, it lacks the athletes to shut down all of the weapons in the Cougar arsenal.  Art Briles is going to spread the field, allowing playmakers, such as RB Anthony Alridge and receivers Jeron Harvey and Vincent Marshall, to make plays in space.
Who to watch: While Houston likes to get Alridge outside the tackles, where he can make plays with his speed, Jackie Battle is a linebacker-sized complement, which will be used to soften the Tulsa interior and move the chains in short yardage.  He’s tied for third in the conference with ten touchdowns, most of which come when the Cougars are on the doorstep.
What will happen: In a signature moment of an already stellar career, Kolb will hoist the Cougars on his shoulders with a late rally, carrying the program to its biggest win in years.
CFN Prediction: Houston 31 … Tulsa 27 ... Line: Houston -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 3


East Carolina (4-4) at UCF (2-6), 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 4
Why to watch: In the muddled and tightly-packed Eastern Division, East Carolina has surprisingly emerged as the front-runner with one month left in the season.  By upsetting Southern Miss in overtime last weekend, the Pirates’ goal for 2006 was upgraded from qualifying for the postseason to winning a conference title for the first time in three decades.  Four teams are within a loss of ECU, so every game will have a playoff feel for the Pirates.  UCF is reeling from its third straight one-sided loss, 51-31 to Houston, forcing George O’Leary to consider wholesale changes on his depth chart, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Why East Carolina might win: Learning to win on the road last week was a gigantic step for a program that was winless away from Greenville before that breakthrough game in Hattiesburg.  Against a skidding Golden Knight team that’s last in scoring offense and near the basement in scoring defense, the Pirates will keep the momentum cranking.  UCF, which has been shredded for an average of 48 points and 465 yards over the last three games, isn’t capable of stopping anyone at this stage of the season.
Why UCF might win: Ever since QB Kyle Israel got inserted into the starting lineup, the UCF offense has been uncommonly potent, scoring 60 points the last two games and tallying a season-high 530 yards in the loss to Houston.  The Israel-to-Mike Walker hook up, combined with the running of Kevin Smith, gives the Golden Knights a balanced look to offset the submissive nature of its sketchy defense.
Who to watch: An ankle injury and inconsistent play at quarterback have kept Pirate WR Aundrae Allison from having the monster senior year everyone anticipated.  He showed signs he was ready to explode against SMU two weeks, but could really go nuts this weekend versus a UCF defense that allowed nine touchdown passes in October, had only three sacks and could be without its best cover corner, Joe Burnett.
What will happen: Against a UCF team that’s trying to work through a bunch of issues, East Carolina will avoid the letdown, getting its best offensive showing of the year.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 34 … UCF 24... Line: East Carolina -7
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 2


- Week 10 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games