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Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 4

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 2, 2006


Steve Octavien and Nebraska can flex their muscles and all but claim the Big 12 North title with a win over Missouri this weekend, but the South might have even more excitement with Oklahoma State battling Texas and Oklahoma dealing with Texas A&M. Check back over the next two games for all the Fearless Predictions for every game.


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


How'd we do so far? 47-12 straight up, 21-30-2 ATS 

Week 10 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Big 12 Game of the Week

Missouri (7-2) at Nebraska (6-3)  12 PM EST ABC Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: For all intents and purposes, this is the Big 12 North championship game. The two teams are coming off bad loses with Missouri getting blasted at home by Oklahoma 26-10, and Nebraska getting blown out in the second half by Oklahoma State in a 41-29 loss. All will be forgotten by the winner. The Huskers have been good, but not great with an offense that's having a hard time exploding, while Missouri is starting to slip with too many mistakes and missed opportunities proving costly with two losses in the last three games. While each will have work to do with two more conference games to follow, this is everything. Either Missouri has finally arrived as a Big 12 player, or Nebraska can prove that it's close to being back to Nebraska.
Why Missouri Might Win: The Husker secondary has been abysmal all season long and injuries and inconsistencies have made things worse allowing a whopping 1,388 yards (278 yards per game) over the last five. Worse yet, teams are able to fire at will with little resistance. Nebraska is getting hit deep, short, and everywhere in between. The Tigers should be able to work its tight ends, Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman, up and down the field and occasionally bomb away with Will Franklin on the outside. Even if Nebraska gets up, expect Missouri to make a run at some point. However ...
Why Nebraska Might Win: ... Missouri's team became way too one dimensional last week against Oklahoma. Losing star quarterback Brad Smith off last year's team was a little bit of a positive because it meant more Tigers would be involved in this year's offense. Against the Sooners, it was QB Chase Daniel, Daniel, and more Daniel with no rushing help and not enough plays made by the receivers. Missouri might be the best team in the North, but it's also prone to mistakes lately getting hurt with turnovers and dropped passes. At the moment, Nebraska's offense has the balance Missouri's is lacking.
Who to Watch: Missouri junior Tony Temple is the team's leading rusher with two 100-yard days on the season and 662 yards on the year, but suffered a dislocated shoulder against Oklahoma and has lost his starting gig. The injury is a problem, but the bigger issue is his fumbling losing two key ones in the last three games. Earl Goldsmith takes over in the starting spot after only getting four carries against the Sooners. A speed back, he appears all back full from a knee injury that kept him down last season. He has to be a featured player to take the pressure off Daniel.
What Will Happen: Will Missouri be the tight team that ripped through the first half of the season, or will it screw up when the pressure's on? Can Nebraska actually beat a team with a pulse? Yes and yes, with the Tigers coming through with two big pass plays in the fourth quarter to put it away.
CFN Prediction
: Missouri 24 ... Nebraska 20 .. Line: Nebraska -7
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 4

Baylor (4-5) at Texas Tech (5-4)  12 PM EST Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: This came so close to being the shootout of the year in the Big 12 with the league's top two passing offenses (Texas Tech is third in the nation and Baylor seventh), but that likely won't happen with BU starting QB Shawn Bell out for the year with a knee injury. This is still a vital game for each team with the Bears needing to win two of their final three to be bowl eligible, while Texas Tech needs one more victory. With Oklahoma and a hot Oklahoma State ahead, the Red Raiders want to get the sixth win now. After losing a 35-31 shootout to Texas despite a 21-0 lead and 519 passing yards from Graham Harrell, there can't be a letdown. Baylor hasn't given Tech too many problems lately going 0-10 against the Red Raiders since the Big 12 was formed with the last win coming in 1995.
Why Baylor Might Win: Will Baylor get good Texas Tech of bad Texas Tech? The Bear secondary can be thrown on deep, but it's decent at the dinkers and dunkers and is great at blasting receivers after they get the ball. If Harrell isn't successful early with the deep ball and isn't getting enough early production from his midrange passes, the overall machine could break down like it did against Colorado and TCU. However ...
Why Texas Tech Might Win: ... if the Red Raiders are on, it might be over. Without Bell, the Baylor passing game won't be nearly as potent, and there's no running game whatsoever to fall back on. Paul Mosley is a nice back, but the Bears are dead last in America running the ball and aren't going to get things magically on track now. The BU defensive front doesn't get into the backfield nearly enough and shouldn't be too much of a bother for Harrell.
Who to Watch: With Bell out, it'll be up to redshirt freshman Blake Szymanski to carry the Bear offense. He'll have a scaled down version of the offense to work with and won't be asked to do nearly as much, but he'll still have to be the one who makes the attack go with no other options to count on. He's a tall, pure-passer with a little more mobility than Bell. While he's not going to be Vince Young any time soon, he'll get to use his feet to move the chains by any means necessary.
What Will Happen: Don't be shocked if Szymanski is able to connect on a few big passes and keep up the pace in the firefight for a few quarters. In the end, BU won't have enough to overcome 400+ yards from Harrell.
CFN Prediction
: Texas Tech 38 ... Baylor 24 .. Line: Texas Tech -17
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 3

Kansas (4-5) at Iowa State (3-6)  2 PM EST Saturday November 4th
Why to Watch: Kansas is still in the hunt for a bowl bid even after it took four weeks before winning its first Big 12 game of the season against Colorado. Needing to win two of the final three games against Iowa State, Kansas State and Missouri, there's almost no margin for error this week against a reeling Iowa State team coming off a 31-10 loss to Kansas State. The Cyclones have lost four straight and have gone 0-5 in Big 12 play, but can still get to a bowl game by beating Kansas, Colorado and Missouri.
Why Kansas Might Win: Iowa State has been flat-out awful. One of the big disappointments of the Big 12 season, the Cyclones haven't been nearly consistent on offense, while the defense can't stop anyone. How bad have they been? Try three plays away from being winless. The offense has loads of talent, but it's not going to be on the field with RB Stevie Hicks suffering a knee injury, Jon Davis suffering a collapsed lung, and Todd Blythe, who's questionable, getting hit with a viral infection. In other words, Iowa State was bad before, and now it's worse.
Why Iowa State Might Win: You could get deep on the Kansas secondary. If Iowa State QB Bret Meyer has any weapons to work with, he should be able to go nuts on an awful Jayhawk secondary that got a brief respite last week because Colorado can't throw the forward pass. Meyer, even with the team's problems, has still thrown for 2,023 yards with 280 coming last week against the Wildcats.
Who to Watch: Who the heck will the Kansas quarterback be? Head coach Mark Mangino is keeping mum on the subject forcing Iowa State to prepare for all three options. Kerry Meier is the future of the Kansas offense and is the starter when 100%, but he got dinged up with a shoulder injury early in the season and hasn't been right since. Senior Adam Barmann is always decent off the bench and a last-ditch starter at best, so if Meier isn't ready to handle the work, freshman Todd Reesing could be the man man again after stepping in for Barmann in the third quarter of the win over Colorado completing seven of 11 passes for 106 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 90 yards.
What Will Happen: Any of the three KU quarterback options could beat Iowa State. The Cyclones are way overdue for a breakout, sharp performance, especially at home, but it's not going to happen.
CFN Prediction
: Kansas 34 ... Iowa State 27 .. Line: Kansas -3
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Running with Scissors) ... 2

Week 10 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games