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Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 11

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 8, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Eleven Big 12 games


Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10


How'd we do so far? 51-14 straight up, 23-34-2 ATS 

Week 11 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

Big 12 Game of the Week

Texas Tech (6-4) at Oklahoma (7-2)  7 PM EST Saturday November 11th
Why to Watch: While Texas appears to be a lock to win the South and go off to play for the Big 12 championship, the battle for second in the division might also be a battle for second in the conference. Oklahoma has been terrific over the last month highlighted by wins over Missouri and Texas A&M. In the team's final home game of the year, a win over Texas Tech would keep alive hopes for a top bowl while getting revenge for last year's controversial 23-21 loss in Lubbock on a last-second Taurean Henderson touchdown that Sooner fans are still disputing. Texas Tech has been one of the year's flakier teams losing to Colorado but beating Texas A&M and bombing away for over 500 yards in a loss to Texas. A win over Oklahoma would do wonders for the Red Raiders' bowl slot.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: Just how good is the Oklahoma secondary? The statistics might be strong, but the pass defense hasn't exactly faced a who's who of passing teams. Certainly the defensive backs have been better since getting thrown on too easily over the first three games, and has picked off seven passes and allowed just one touchdown pass over the last four games, but now it has to deal with a real passing game that's finding its stride just at the right time with Graham Harrell throwing for 1,370 yards and 13 touchdowns over the last three games. The OU pass rush has been non-existent in stretches.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: While Texas Tech's defensive front is active, it can be shoved around. Texas rumbled over the Red Raiders for 227 yards, and Colorado ran around then for 228. Any ground game with a heartbeat has been able to crank out yards in chunks, and OU should be able to do the same. The Sooner attack has been even more effective over the last two weeks than it's been all season long cranking out 231 yards against Missouri and 224 against Texas A&M thanks to the play of RB Allen Patrick and ...
Who to Watch: ... Left tackle Chris Messner, left guard George "Duke" Robinson, center Jon Cooper, right guard Brandon Walker, and right tackle Trent Williams. These five aren't getting much in the way of national attention, but they've been critical in turning Oklahoma's season around after the loss to Texas. A concern going into the season, the line has jelled into one of the team's biggest strengths doing a batter job in pass protection over the last few weeks and dominating in the ground game. It's not a stretch to say this group is the key to the game with the way it can help the Sooner attack crank out long, drawn out drives.
What Will Happen: Do you like the OU ground game or the Texas Tech passing attack? Both will work, but the Sooners will get just enough passing yards to come away with another tough win.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma 31 ... Texas Tech 24 ...  Line: Oklahoma -9.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 4

Baylor (4-6) at Oklahoma State (5-4)  12:30 PM EST Saturday November 11th
Why to Watch: It's a battle for survival in the hunt for a bowl bid, and while it's a bit misleading to say that this is also a battle to avoid the Big 12 South basement, that's exactly what it is. Baylor, without starting quarterback Shawn Bell, wasn't even close to keeping up the pace with Texas Tech in a 55-21 loss last week. While this is hardly the Baylor the Big 12 has kicked around for so many years, it needs to win this week and beat Oklahoma next week to be bowl eligible and avoid the number six slot in the division. Oklahoma State has three chances to get the sixth win needed for a bowl, but this week represents the best shot with a road trip to Texas Tech followed up by the Oklahoma rivalry. Bobby Reid and the bunch took a step back last week getting blown out 36-10 by Texas, but this is an exciting, up-and-coming team that should be able to fight Baylor's fire with more fire.
Why Baylor Might Win: Even with backup QB Blake Szymanski, Baylor can still throw the ball. OSU has a high-risk, high-reward defense that leaves its corners on an island too many times. Texas QB Colt McCoy had his best game of the year getting to pick apart the Cowboy secondary, and if the BU line can somehow keep Szymanski upright, there will be several chances to hit on some big plays.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Reid won't have two bad games in a row. Baylor doesn't have the corners to stick with Adarius Bowman and the OSU receivers, while the Bear linebackers should have problems with Reid's mobility. Two weeks ago, Texas A&M's Stephen McGee ran for 89 yards, and Reid should have similar success. Yes, the BU offense should be able to put up yards on the OUS back seven, but Szymanski's not Bell.
Who to Watch: Getting to Szymanski and forcing him to hurry his throws would likely mean another average outing for the Bear passing game. Texas Tech cranked out four sacks last week and got even more hurries, and Oklahoma State and its aggressive defense has to do the same. It might have to do so without top pass rusher Victor DeGrate, who suffered a badly sprained ankle against the Longhorns and is questionable. If he's out, it'll mean OSU might have to blitz a little bit more.
What Will Happen: Oklahoma State's offense will get back on track, but BU will get just enough shots in to keep it from being a runaway.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma State 34 ... Baylor 23 .. Line: Oklahoma State -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 3

Iowa State (3-7) at Colorado (1-9)  3 PM EST Saturday November 11th
Why to Watch: Three months ago, many thought this might be one of the key battles in the Big 12 race. As it turns out, it is; it's just that it's critical in the race to be the Big 12's worst team. Colorado is 1-9 after dropping a 34-21 home clunker to Kansas State, and with a road trip to Nebraska to close out the year, this likely represents the last shot at a win. Iowa State has gone from bad to awful in a five-game losing streak thanks to a slew of offensive injuries and not nearly enough from the defense to overcome the problems. A loss here would create more and more grumbling about Dan McCarney's job status.
Why Iowa State Might Win: If ISU QB Bret Meyer was ever going to get on track, this would be the week. Of course, that was said last week against the abysmal Kansas secondary and he only threw for 180 yards, but while the Jayhawks usually give up yards in chunks, the Buffaloes are getting nitpicked to death. Kansas State freshman QB Josh Freeman looked like Peyton Manning last week completing 22 of 25 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns after throwing one scoring pass all season long. Meyer should be able to throw well if ...
Why Colorado Might Win: ...he has anyone to throw to. WR Jon Davis and RBs Stevie Hicks and Jason Scales are out, and top game-breaking receiver Todd Blythe is iffy, at best, with a virus that knocked him out the last two weeks. You could suit up and complete 21 of 28 passes against the horrific Cyclone pass defense. That's not to say Colorado's Bernard Jackson could do the same, but one of the nation's least efficient passers should have his easiest game yet.
Who to Watch: Lost in Iowa State's disaster of a year has been the play of LB Alvin Bowen, the nation's leading tackler. While he looks more like a big safety than a hard-hitting linebacker, his speed allows him to get in on every stop. He made 18 tackles against Kansas, nine (all solo) against Kansas, and has made double-digit stop in seven games this season. It'll be his job to keep Jackson's running under wraps.
What Will Happen: Neither team can stop the pass, and neither team can throw. Colorado's running game will be the difference.
CFN Prediction
: Colorado 23 ... Iowa State 13 .. Line: Colorado -8
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 2

Week 11 Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games