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How'd we do so far? SU 41-6 ATS
23-18-1
Big East Game of
the Week
Louisville
(8-0) at
Rutgers
(8-0), 7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday,
November 9
Why to watch: It’s a battle of
Big East unbeatens: Part 2. For the
second consecutive Thursday, the
conference gets a national spotlight
with monumental BCS ramifications
hanging on the outcome. Last week,
Louisville handled West Virginia 44-34,
thrusting itself to the prime real
estate just behind Ohio State and
Michigan in the rankings. The Cardinals
are on the doorstep of a berth in the
national championship game after playing
their most impressive game of the
season. This week, they’ll travel to
New Jersey to face upstart Rutgers, a
program that’s starting to emerge as
the story of the 2006 season behind
an undersized and underpublicized back
and a relentless defense. How often do
you get a chance to witness a school’s
most important game…ever? If you like
turmoil in the BCS system, root hard for
the home team. If Louisville loses on
Thursday, you’ll need a private tutor to
make sense of the chaos involving the
Scarlet Knights and at least a
half-dozen one-loss teams still gunning
for Glendale.
Why Louisville might win: Last
week showed that the Cardinal offense
can play on a completely different level
when QB Brian Brohm is healthy. In his
third game back from thumb surgery, he
threw for 354 yards on just 19
completions. Scarlet Knight
corners—each 5-11 or shorter—will
struggle to contain 6-6 Mario Urrutia
and Harry Douglas, the Big East’s top
two receivers. The Scarlet Knights will
need offensive balance to beat this
Louisville team, but won’t get it from
QB Mike Teel, who’s thrown more picks
than touchdowns in 2006 and has yet to
face the kind of pressure he’ll see from
the speedy Cardinal D.
Why Rutgers might win: Isn’t this
essentially the same Louisville team
that struggled with Cincinnati and
Syracuse just a few weeks ago? West
Virginia showed last week that you can
pound the ball on Louisville, even
without the threat of a prolific passing
game. The Mountaineers ran for 318
yards, which is exactly what Ray Rice
and the nation’s 12th-ranked
ground game will try to do in order to
keep Brohm & Co. off the field. Yes,
this is the best offense the Scarlet
Knights defense has faced this fall, but
they’ll be up to the challenge. Rutgers
creates tremendous pressure on
quarterbacks, has yet to allow more than
20 points in a game and boasts the No. 2
pass defense in America. They’ll be in
Brohm’s grill all night, forcing
Louisville to lean more on a running
game that’s been up and down all year.
Who to watch: Rice is going to
get 30 carries unless Rutgers gets stuck
in a big hole early, but keep an eye on
his sidekick, Leonard. The senior has
been the consummate team player in 2006,
relinquishing individual gains for the
good of the team, however, he’ll be a
key outlet for Teel on screen passes
against an attacking Louisville defense
that’ll be looking to rattle the
sophomore quarterback.
What will happen: At a different
time or a different place, this would be
too tall of a hurdle for a Scarlet
Knight team that doesn’t match the
Cards’ depth or athleticism. However,
everything has lined up for an upset.
While Rutgers is well rested, the
Cardinals must hit the road a week after
winning one of its most emotional games
in school history. They’re saying all
the right things, but it won’t be
playing in front of a crowd that’ll be
looking to exorcise more than a century
worth of intercollegiate demons. The
Knight D will prove to be for real and a
couple of late field goals from Jeremy
Ito will make Louisville’s perfect
season finito.
CFN Prediction:
Rutgers 26 … Louisville 23 ... Line:
Louisville -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Santa
Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ...
4.5
Cincinnati
(5-4) at
West Virginia
(7-1), 12:00 EST, Saturday, November 11
Why to watch: For the first time
in more than a year, West Virginia
flinched, losing a pivotal game to
Louisville that ended its national
championship dreams and severely damaged
its quest for a second Big East title
in-a-row. The Mountaineers didn’t just
lose Thursday night, they gagged in a
big spot, coughing the ball up, tackling
poorly and making uncharacteristic
mistakes on special teams. How quickly
they regroup and put Papa John’s behind
them will determine whether the nation’s
No. 10 team can still cop an at-large
BCS bowl berth. The ‘eers will have
their hands full with Cincinnati, which
has subtly won four of its last five
games, while giving Louisville more of a
fight in a 23-17 loss than West Virginia
did last week. An upset in Morgantown
would make the Bearcats bowl eligible,
while giving Mark Dantonio the landmark
win he’s come close to bagging a couple
of times this year.
Why Cincinnati might win: Ever
since wilting in the second half of the
Ohio State game, the Bearcat defense has
been sensational. That was over two
months ago. Cincy has allowed just 17
points a game since Sept. 16, including
just one touchdown over the last nine
quarters. At just 89 yards a game, no
one in the Big East is giving up fewer
yards on the ground than the Bearcats,
which is essential to slowing down West
Virginia’s second-ranked running game.
Why West Virginia might win:
Fueled by the combustible combination of
Pat White and Steve Slaton, West
Virginia averages 40 points a game, so
you better be prepared for a track meet
if you want to beat these Mountaineers.
Cincinnati, however, hasn’t scored more
than 24 points against a I-A school this
year and lacks the offensive firepower
to go stride-for-stride with West
Virginia, especially in a hostile
environment. Once the Mountaineers jump
ahead by double digits, ineffective QB
Dustin Grutza won’t have the weapons to
engineer a rally.
Who to watch: Slaton put up good
numbers versus Louisville, but saw his
Heisman chances fade when he had two
momentum-changing fumbles in the pivotal
third quarter. With his confidence a
little shaken for the first time in his
college career, it’ll be interesting to
see how he rebounds against the rugged
Cincinnati run defense.
What will happen: Don’t be at all
surprised if West Virginia starts slowly
and needs to be chewed out by Rich
Rodriguez at halftime. One long
touchdown scamper by White in the third
quarter will be the spark it needs to
fend off a feisty Cincinnati team and
get back on the winning track.
CFN Prediction:
West Virginia 34 … Cincinnati 17 ...
Line: West Virginia -18
Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Santa
Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ...
3
Syracuse
(3-6) at
South Florida
(6-3), 12:00 EST, ESPN Plus, Saturday,
November 11
Why to watch:
With one enormous win over Pittsburgh
last Saturday, South Florida is suddenly
bowl eligible for the second straight
year and in the mix to contend for a
respectable fourth-place finish behind
the league’s three ranked teams. With
key trips to Louisville and West
Virginia still looming, this is the
Bulls’ final chance to work on some of
their offensive issues before facing the
Big East’s two headline programs.
Syracuse has lost more than just four
games over the past month. It’s lost
all of the equity it enjoyed after
getting to 3-2 with a double-overtime
win against Wyoming. The Orange can
still win out to reach bowl eligibility,
but more realistically will spend the
last month of the season getting good
looks at underclassmen, such as RBs
Delone Carter and Curtis Brinkley and WR
Mike Williams.
Why Syracuse might win: The last
thing you want to be against this
Syracuse defense is gimpy, which is
exactly how South Florida QB Matt Grothe
left last week’s game with Pitt. If the
freshman loses his mobility, he’ll be at
the mercy of an Orange D that is ninth
nationally in sacks and creates more
turnovers than any other Big East team,
a major shortcoming for the careless
Bulls.
Why South Florida might win: A
very good Bull defense is getting
stingier as the season wears on. It
hasn’t allowed more than 23 points in a
game all year, a trend Syracuse’s 112th-ranked
offense is in no position to buck.
South Florida, which held Tyler Palko
and Pittsburgh to a season-low 219 yards
in Tampa last week, will have no
problems containing QB Perry Patterson
or the Orange’s league-worst running
game. The Bulls are 4-1 at home, losing
only to unbeaten Rutgers by two points.
Who to watch: Stephen Nicholas
and the USF linebackers have been as
good as advertised this year, but
they’ve gotten support by CB Trae
Williams in the secondary and NT Allen
Cray, a pair of juniors that’ll be back
next year. Williams picked off his Big
East-leading sixth pass last week, while
Cray has plugged the middle with 24
tackles, eight tackles for loss and the
first four sacks of his career.
What will happen: South Florida
will continue to sizzle defensively,
stifling the Syracuse offense, while
pushing the Bulls four games over .500.
CFN Prediction:
South Florida 24 … Syracuse 13 ...
Line: South Florida -9.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Santa
Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ...
2.5
Pittsburgh
(6-3) at
Connecticut
(3-5), 3:30 EST, ESPN Plus, Saturday,
November 11
Why to watch: Pittsburgh is at a
crossroads in the 2006 season. Just
three weeks ago, the Panthers were 6-1
and generating chatter that they, not
Rutgers, could be the real fly in the
Big East ointment. Two lethargic losses
later, Pitt is on the verge of a
complete collapse. With West Virginia
and Louisville waiting in the on-deck
circle, it’s imperative the Panthers use
this week’s trip to Hartford to cut down
on silly mistakes and relocate the
offensive execution that disappeared
when the Scarlet Knights visited.
Connecticut has lost four of its last
five games and is still seeking its
first Big East win of 2006. The Huskies
did get a jolt of excitement two weeks
ago when freshman Donald Brown, filling
in for injured Terry Caulley, raced for
199 yards and two scores in a loss to
Rutgers.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The
Panthers have been at their best this
year when they can establish the run
with LaRod Stephens-Howling, something
they’ll be able to do against
Connecticut’s 105th-ranked
run defense. With some help from the
running game, QB Tyler Palko will get
back to be being one of the nation’s
most efficient passers. The Huskies, on
the other hand, will continue to
struggle on offense with a
two-quarterback system that hasn’t
worked since the I-AA portion of the
schedule ended.
Why Connecticut might win: The
Huskies showed plenty of fight in recent
losses to West Virginia and Rutgers, a
sign they haven’t quit on this season.
The Connecticut pass defense is No. 5 in
the country, which will present problems
for a Pittsburgh offense that’s scored
just 22 points over the last two
weekends. As sloppy as the Panthers
have played the last two weeks, they
wouldn’t be a sure thing against any I-A
team at this stage of the season.
Who to watch: Derek Kinder gets
more pub and has the better numbers, but
freshman Oderick Turner has steadily
emerged as a reliable receiver for Palko
in the second half of the year. He’s
had some drops, but has also had 30
catches for 465 yards and five
touchdowns, a harbinger of bigger things
to come in the next few years.
What will happen: The calendar
may say November, but the quality of
play at Rentschler Field will make it
seem like it’s early August. Desperate
for a win, Pittsburgh will parlay a
couple of costly Connecticut turnovers
into points and a much-needed seventh
victory.
CFN Prediction:
Pittsburgh 26... Connecticut 16
... Line:
Pitt -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Santa
Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ...
2
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