C-USA Fearless Predictions, Nov. 11

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 8, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Eleven Conference USA games


Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

- Week 11 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? Straight up 57-21 ... ATS 38-31-2 ATS


Conference USA Game of the Week

Houston (7-3) at SMU (5-4), 8:00 EST, Saturday, November 11
Why to watch: SMU is on the cusp of a ground-breaking bowl game for the first time in more than two decades.  The Mustangs have won five of their last seven games behind unflappable freshman QB Justin Willis and a seasoned defense that stops the run better than any team in Conference USA.  If SMU is going to get that magical sixth win this week, it’ll have to come against Houston, the new leaders of the Western Division.  The Cougars nabbed their biggest win in years last Saturday, topping incumbent Tulsa 27-10 to move one huge step closer to a league crown.  They are a flaky program, however, that lost at home to the Mustangs in 2005, needing to develop a killer instinct in these final two games.
Why Houston might win: The Cougars sport a balanced offense that leads the conference in scoring and total yards, but it’s the recent play of the defense that really has Art Briles excited.  Since losing three straight games earlier in the year, Houston has allowed just a single touchdown pass and held a solid Tulsa offense to only 249 yards in last week’s win.  If they shut down Willis, the Mustangs don’t have the running game to offset the shortfall.
Why SMU might win: In just over half a season, you can just tell Willis is special.  He’s cool under pressure and can improvise at a moment’s notice.  He won’t have to, however, against a Houston defense that’s registered just five sacks in the last seven games.  The Cougars are most dangerous when they can run the ball to complement the high-powered passing attack, but they’ll be unsuccessful in the face of defense that’s yet to allow an opponent run for more than 100 yards in a game.
Who to watch: SMU can stop the run, but they’ve been awful all year defensing the pass.  That’s good news for Houston QB Kevin Kolb, who’s capping a terrific tenure as a four-year starter with the best season of his career.  With time, Kolb will surpass 300 yards through the air for the sixth time in 2006.
What will happen: It will not be easy, but Houston will use three Kolb touchdown flips to sidestep a letdown and a potential landmine on the path to the Liberty Bowl.
CFN Prediction: Houston 31 … SMU 23 ...  Line: Houston -5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 3


UTEP (4-5) at UAB (3-6), 8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, November 10
Why to watch: It’s do-or-die for UTEP and UAB if either hopes to play meaningful football games the rest of November.  The Blazers, which are still mathematically alive in the Eastern Division, are coming off a 22-9 loss at SMU, their most listless effort of the season.  The only constant with Watson Brown’s 2006 team has been its maddeningly inconsistent performances from one week to the next.  Well on its way to becoming the league’s biggest flop of 2006, UTEP has lost three straight games, playing with its backs to the wall for the first time since Mike Price arrived.  The Miners reached what they hope is a low point last weekend, getting spanked by Rice to a chorus of boos from the disapproving Sun Bowl crowd.  Price, returning to Alabama for just the second time since his embarrassing ouster from the Tide, might hear far worse from the Legion Field crowd.
Why UTEP might win: UAB hasn’t been able to contain decent passing offenses since league play hit full swing in October.  Memphis and Rice pierced the Blazer secondary for three touchdown passes in consecutive weeks, a precursor of what will happen Friday night.  Of all the troubles the Miners are having, throwing the ball is not one of them.  The nation’s 11th-ranked passing attack is enduring fewer turnovers from QB Jordan Palmer and an All-American-caliber season from WR Johnnie Lee Higgins.
Why UAB might win: Which Blazer offense will show up Friday night? With UTEP playing defense, the prolific one that scored 92 points in the three games leading up to last week’s debacle in Dallas.  The Miners have allowed more than 30 points in three straight games and were ripped for 471 yards by Rice last weekend.  They haven’t stopped anyone in 2006, which means it’ll be a good night for versatile UAB QBs Chris Williams and Sam Hunt, both of whom will play.
Who to watch: If UTEP is going to climb back to .500, it’s going to have to keep UAB’s leading sacker, Larry McSwain, off Palmer’s back.  That responsibility will fall largely on three freshmen linemen, Mike Aguayo, Anthony McNac and Colby Meek, who played well last week and will get the start again on Friday.
What will happen: Facing a desperate situation, Palmer and Higgins will provide the senior leadership and big plays, hooking up for three touchdowns in a critical win for the Miners.
CFN Prediction: UTEP 31 … UAB 27 ...  Line: Pick
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 2


Marshall (4-5) at East Carolina (5-4), 1:00 EST, Saturday, November 11
Why to watch: Three-game winning streaks from both schools have made this game far more interesting than anyone could have imagined just a month ago.  The winner of Saturday’s game will exit Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium with no less than a share of first place in the Eastern Division and control of its own destiny going forward.  East Carolina has been fueled by the play of an opportunistic defense, but to qualify for their first bowl game in five years, the Pirates will have to prove they can handle success and win when wearing a bullseye.  Marshall’s recent success has been a product of a revived offense that’s gotten three straight 100-yard games from Ahmad Bradshaw and a couple of stellar efforts from backup QB Jimmy Skinner.  Ailing starter Bernard Morris is expected to keep his job this week, but with five touchdown passes against Memphis and Tulane, Skinner has proven he’s ready if needed.
Why Marshall might win: The offense has emerged from its year-long slumber with three consecutive games of at least 31 points, including 42 versus Tulane last week.  Bradshaw has been a show-stopper, but it’s the play of the improved passing game that’s really made the Herd offense so potent.  East Carolina’s 90th-ranked run defense won’t corral Bradshaw now that he’s got a passing to keep the opposition from stacking the line.
Why East Carolina might win: No one in Conference USA is creating takeaways faster these days than the Pirates, a huge advantage over a Marshall team that’s 105th in the country in turnover margin.  All those picks and fumble recoveries explain why the East Carolina D has stepped up during the winning streak, holding opponents to just 16 points a game.  Back-to-back clunkers from James Pinkney will be remedied by the Herd, which has been kind to opposing quarterbacks all year.
Who to watch: Veterans of just eight snaps before the season, East Carolina’s Quentin Cotton and Van Eskridge have developed into the team’s top two tacklers and backfield disrupters.  With the focus squarely on stopping Bradshaw, the young linebackers will be instrumental to the success of Pirate defense Saturday afternoon.
What will happen: In a very tight game between comparable teams, turnovers will prove to be the difference.  East Carolina will create multiple takeaways, giving Pinkney a short field to work with and stalling Marshall drives.
CFN Prediction
: East Carolina 34 … Marshall 24 ...  Line: East Carolina -8
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause) ... 2


- Week 11 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games