Wow, there just really aren’t any truly compelling games on the Pac-10 slate this weekend. Yes, ASU – OSU could be fun, and UCLA – Cal at least could possibly be enjoyable, but that’s really it. It’s just one of those unfortunate off-weeks for good games, though the rest of the season should be better than this.
Arizona State @ Oregon State (-2)
(preseason pick: Oregon State)
This one is obviously the game of the week. It’s an interesting matchup between two teams which have started to catch fire a bit, which is always fun. Obviously, Oregon State is riding high after knocking off the Trojans last week, which will certainly give them a confidence boost. If their defense can continue its ball-hawking ways, and the offense can be relatively mistake-free, they can win this game even without help from special teams like they had last week.
On the Other Hand:
This pretty much seems like the letdown game of the year waiting to happen. The Beavers just had a monumental victory that gave them a tremendous amount of breathing room down the stretch, and the fact that they pulled out the game could easily outweigh the fact that they very nearly blew the lead and that they showed some significant weaknesses as well. If the coaching staff does a good job getting on them, maybe they’ll be immune, but it certainly seems likely that they just won’t have it in them to bring their A game this week.
Moreover, ASU has also been playing very well, as their defense has gotten better of late, and their offense is actually balanced and far more effective then when all they did was pass it. That makes them a dangerous team in this game.
Bottom Line:
ASU is probably the better team here, and if you throw in the letdown factor, they become a more likely pick. The Beavers won’t be saved by a big positive turnover margin and key special teams plays this time.
Arizona State 27, @ Oregon State 21
UCLA @ Cal (-17)
(preseason pick: Cal)
On paper, this really looks like a blowout waiting to happen. The Bruins, already in the middle of a slump, now are also in November (where they almost always get worse) and on the road (ditto) against a very good team that has already won a fair share of blowouts.
On the Other Hand:
It’s never good to base analysis on a historical trend, but in this case, I just can’t ignore how close this series has been over the last few years. Despite occasionally large lines, over the last ten years there have only been two times where the winner would have covered this spread, and two where they tied it (though Cal in 2004 was only because of a late defensive touchdown). To me, that says that this series just tends to be very close, no matter what the expectations are.
Moreover, other than the fourth quarter against Washington State, the Bruins really haven’t gotten blown out, which leads me to believe that it’s not likely to happen here either.
Bottom Line:
I think this will be a surprisingly close game, with the Bears only putting it away some time around the middle of the fourth quarter.
@ Cal 31, UCLA 21
Arizona @ Washington State (-16)
(preseason pick: Arizona)
The Cougars shouldn’t have much trouble winning this game, but 16 points is just a bit too high.
@ Washington State 24, Arizona 10
Washington @ Oregon (-16)
(preseason pick: Oregon)
See above.
@ Oregon 31, Washington 17
USC (-28) @ Stanford
(preseason pick: USC)
If the Trojans were facing a decent team, I’d call for them to struggle a bit again, as they still have very definite weaknesses. However, they aren’t facing a decent team, so expect them to be angry and to run it up a bit more than they need to
USC 42, @ Stanford 10
National Games of the Week:
With the big game of the week on Thursday, there just aren’t many good games on this weekend, unfortunately.
LSU (-4.5) @ Tennessee
So the Tigers have beaten precisely nobody on the road so far, and Ainge is supposed to be healthy for the game. I must be missing something because this just looks like a screwy line to me.
@ Tennessee 28, LSU 21
Oklahoma (-2.5) @ Texas A&M
Hardly a marquee game, but something has to fill the space. Home field should be the deciding factor here.
@ Texas A&M 21, Oklahoma 17
Penn State @ Wisconsin (-7)
Same as above, except that here the Badgers have played at a much higher level than the Nittany Lions so far this season.
@ Wisconsin 31, Penn State 17
Bad Lines of the Week:
Baylor +16.5
I’m sorry, but the Red Raiders just aren’t good enough to command this type of line.
Arkansas -2.5
South Carolina just isn’t good enough to make me believe they have a serious shot of winning this game, which makes anything less than about five points just seem silly. The fact that it came right after the big “Fullmer vs Spurrier” game only makes me more sure that Arkansas wins easily.
Indiana +6
The Gophers just aren’t good enough to be favored by around a touchdown against a decent Hoosier squad.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com