Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 18
Posted Nov 15, 2006

Preview and predictions for the week Twelve Big 12 games

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech
Past Big 12 Predictions: Week 1 |
Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

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How'd we do so far? 54-16 straight up, 26-38-2 ATS 

Big 12 Game of the Week

Oklahoma State (6-4) at Texas Tech (6-5)  2 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: This game might not mean too much, if anything on a national scale, and it doesn't really mean all that much in the Big 12 since both teams are bowl bound, but it's going to be a heck of a lot of fun. Oklahoma State's offense has started to explode over the last several games working its way up to fifth in the nation in scoring and 13th in total offense, while Texas Tech is its usual, amazing self ranking eighth in the nation in offense and 19th in scoring. It'll be fireworks galore with high-octane passing games going up and down the field in a who-had-it-last type of game that should keep you glued before Michigan and Ohio State kick off.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Texas Tech might be known for a quick strike offense, but more often than not, it likes to control the ball with its passing game and isn't all about scoring as quickly as possible. Unlike Tech, OSU's passing game works off its running attack with Mike Hamilton, Keith Toston and Dantrell Savage all able to crank out yards in chunks, while the emerging Bobby Reid should see plenty of single coverage on his NFL caliber receivers. The Cowboys can hit Texas Tech through the air or on land, and it'll never be out of the game. While Tech might be one dimensional ...
Why Texas Tech Might Win: ... that dimension should light up the OSU secondary like a Christmas tree. This is a high risk, high reward Cowboy defense that'll leave its corners on an island to try. The Cowboys will get to Tech QB Graham Harrell and knock him around a little bit, but if Harrell can read the pressure early and make the right decisions throughout, he'll hit home run after home run. He might find out about the big plays while on his back, but he'll get the yards. However ...
Who to Watch: ... can Harrell really handle the pressure? Oklahoma threw everything including the kitchen sink at him last week and held the Red Raiders to 250 passing yards in the 34-24 win. OSU doesn't have OU's secondary, but it'll sell out to put the pressure on nonetheless. Tech is bull-headed in its desire to throw exclusively, and for good reason, but this might be a game to get RB Shannon Woods going. Against an aggressive defense, the Tech coaching staff has to figure out how to get Woods the ball in space to take advantage of the blitzes.
What Will Happen: Lots of points and lots of fun. Oklahoma State's defense will be a little better than Tech's while the offensive balance will be more effective than the Tech short to midrange passing attack.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma State 38 ... Texas Tech 34 ...  Line: Texas Tech -6
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 4

Missouri (7-3) at Iowa State (3-8)  2 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: It's the end of the Dan McCarney era at Iowa State after 12 years of occasional success and a disastrous finish. The Cyclones have been awful all season long and haven't even been close on a six-game losing streak since beating Northern Iowa in late September. Missouri might be disappointed to be out of the Big 12 title race with Nebraska clinching the North last week, but there's still plenty to play for with jockeying going on for bowl position and a shot at a ten-win season, the program's first since 1960, still possible. The Tigers are on a two game losing streak and have to focus in what's certain to be an emotional day in Ames.
Why Missouri Might Win: With the rest from a week off, the Tigers should be the far fresher team. The offensive line should give QB Chase Daniel all the time he needs to throw against an awful pass defense that made Colorado's Bernard Jackson, leader of one of the nation's most inefficient passing game, look like Troy Smith. Daniel should be able to dink and dunk his way to his heart's content, while the running game shouldn't have any problem moving the ball if ...
Why Iowa State Might Win: ... it doesn't keep turning the ball over. The Tigers were plagued by turnovers against Oklahoma and Nebraska losing it seven times. Fumbling has been the big issues with seven in the last four games, and all seemed to turn out to be killers. Iowa State's offense needs a kick-start and a bit of momentum, and getting a few breaks would be just the ticket.
Who to Watch: Will Chase Daniel relax? The Missouri quarterback was terrific throughout the first half of the season, and then in big games against Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Nebraska, he pressed too much, tried to make every throw, and appeared to try to do everything himself. While he spread the ball around well over the last few weeks, he has to find his NFL-caliber tight ends, Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman more. Most quarterbacks dream of having one safety valve, and Daniel has two.
What Will Happen: Iowa State will be jacked up to win for McCarney, but if Missouri can withstand the early wave of emotion, and win the turnover margin, the overall talent will come through in the second half.
CFN Prediction
: Missouri  31 ... Iowa State 10 ...  Line: Missouri -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 2

Oklahoma (8-2) at Baylor (4-7)  12 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: Shhhhhhh. No one's talking much about it, but Oklahoma just might be the best team in the Big 12 at the moment, and that's even without Adrian Peterson, who's thinking about coming back for the Oklahoma State game next week. The offensive line is night-and-day better than it was just a month ago, the defense has stepped up its effectiveness, and QB Paul Thompson has proven to be more than just a guy who knows how to hand off. On the flip side, Baylor has gone completely into the tank losing three straight to Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State by a total of 152 to 66. 
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Oklahoma held Texas Tech's passing game to 250 yards last week with a variety of funky, disguised blitzes that kept Red Raider QB Graham Harrell off kilter all game long. If Baylor's passing game doesn't suddenly find something it didn't have over the last several weeks, the offense will go absolutely nowhere. The running has gotten a little bit of a boost with the running of Blake Szymanski, but he's not nearly a consistent enough passer or decision maker to handle the Big 12's best defense.
Why Baylor Might Win: The only real hope Baylor has of keeping this close is if Oklahoma's game plan dictates it. The Sooners almost exclusively ran the ball on Texas A&M, with Thompson completing just three of 12 passes for 39 yards, and won by the skin of their teeth. BU's run defense is a major weakness that Bob Stoops will look to exploit, and that might turn out to be a positive. Baylor has nothing to lose in its final game of the year, so it's going to just let it loose.
Who to Watch: Baylor is hardly playing for next year with head coach Guy Morriss making it very clear that he's out to play his best players and not just see what the young guys can do. Even so, true freshman David Gettis will get more and more work after catching two passes for 62 yards and a score last week against Oklahoma State. He could use this game as something to get BU fans excited about for next year.
What Will Happen: Who's going to be the Oklahoma rushing star this week? Allen Patrick is expected to be back after missing last week with an ankle injury, but that doesn't mean last week's star, Chris Brown, will be left out of the mix. Whoever gets the ball will run wild on the porous Bear defense.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma 38 ... Baylor 13 ...  Line: Oklahoma -20
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 2

Kansas State (7-4) at Kansas (5-5)  3:30 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: Look who's back? Kansas State went from being a nice story of resurgence to a player in the Big 12 knocking Texas out of the national championship hunt with a scintillating 45-42 win. The good vibes from the first truly enormous win in the Ron Prince era might quickly dissipate if the Wildcats lose to arch-rival Kansas. KU has two shots to become bowl eligible, but with the season finale at Missouri, this home date might be its best shot. On a two-game winning streak beating Colorado and Iowa State, the Jayhawks are playing well, but could use a really good win. It's one victory of note was over South Florida.
Why Kansas State Might Win: The emergence of Kansas State freshman Josh Freeman as a solid, playmaking passer has given the offense another dimension highlighted by his 269-yard, three score day against Texas last week. The Longhorn secondary might be struggling, but it still has NFL talent. If Freeman can rip up that group, he should be able to go ballistic on the nation's 117th ranked pass defense. KU's been better over the last few games, thanks to playing Iowa State and Colorado, but the corners are still very burnable.
Why Kansas Might Win: KU might have just found its stride. After weeks of heartbreaking, agonizing losses, the winning streak might have finally given the team the confidence to figure out how to win close games. The Kansas State defense has had problems against running quarterbacks over the last several weeks, and KU QB Kerry Meier can move. Jon Cornish will be the man workhorse for the Jayhawks, but Meier should be able to keep the Wildcats on their heels inside and out.
Who to Watch: Oddly enough, Cornish's production has gone down just as KU started winning. Of course, it helps to play Colorado and Iowa State instead of Texas A&M and Nebraska. The senior is playing in the final home game of an underappreciated, rock-solid career with 1,900 yards and 14 touchdown runs in the last two seasons. After being held in check by the Wildcats last year with only 55 yards on 17 carries, look for him to make amends.
What Will Happen: The two teams are more even than they might appear. Kansas State is the absolute real deal with one of the brightest young offenses in the conference, but at home, a rested KU will come up with just enough run defense, and enough of a pass rush on Freeman, to come away with a tough win. This will be the final week over the next few years KSU plays like a young, emerging team.
CFN Prediction
: Kansas 28 ... Kansas State 23 ...  Line: Kansas -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 3.5

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