C-USA Fearless Predictions, Nov. 18, Part 2

Preview and predictions for the week Twelve Conference USA games, Part 2

Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

- Week 12 C-USA Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? Straight up 61-23 ... ATS 43-32-2 ATS

Tulsa (7-3) at SMU (5-5), 3:00 EST, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch:  Desperation will fill the Dallas air when these two programs meet Saturday afternoon.  While Tulsa will be looking to snap a rare two-game losing streak, SMU gets its second chance to secure a sixth win and a program-defining bowl invitation.  The Mustangs blew a lead against Houston last weekend that could have locked up their first postseason game since 1984.  A trip to red-hot Rice will close out the regular season, making holding serve at home a priority.  Tulsa officially dropped out of the Western Division race by losing in double overtime to Rice on Saturday.  The Golden Hurricane will not be defending its league title this year, however, ten wins and another bowl victory remain on the to-do list for Steve Kragthorpe.
Why Tulsa might win: Balanced offenses, such as the ones at BYU and Rice, have killed the Golden Hurricane in 2006.  SMU isn’t balanced.  Tulsa has handled the one-dimensional models, such as the one it’ll see Saturday, all year long.  The Mustangs have been held under 100 yards rushing in four of the last six games, putting pressure on QB Justin Willis to engineer the upset with little support.  While Willis struggles, Tulsa QB Paul Smith will soar against the nation’s 114^th-ranked pass defense.
Why SMU might win: In a contest of strength vs. strength, the Mustangs’ league-best run defense will slow down Tulsa’s league-best running attack.  When Courtney Tennial is corralled, the Golden Hurricane offense has a tendency to sputter.  Willis is very dangerous when he’s flushed from the pocket, but he’s not going to endure much pressure from an undersized Tulsa defensive line that’s 100^th in the country in sacks and 113^th in tackles for loss.
Who to watch: Tulsa is pining for a victory in the worst way, which makes this the type of game that senior QB Paul Smith, the team’s leader, will deliver one of his most productive outputs of the season.  Running and throwing for at least one score, Smith will show one more time why he’s going to be impossible to replace next year.
What will happen: Playing with a renewed sense of urgency, Tulsa will serve as a roadblock to SMU’s preseason goal of playing in a postseason game.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 28 … SMU 21 .. Line: Tulsa -6
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 2     

UTEP (5-5) at Marshall (4-6), 4:30 EST, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch: Eight Conference USA teams still have a shot at seven automatic bowl berths.  UTEP and Marshall are two of them.  The Miners played, arguably, its best game of 2006 last Friday, dumping UAB 36-17 to get back to the .500 mark.  The Jordan Palmer to Johnnie Lee Higgins connection continues to be one of the toughest in the nation to defend.  Riding a three-game winning streak and staring at an opportunity to move into a first-place tie in the Eastern Division, Marshall imploded at East Carolina.  The Herd stumbled and fumbled its way to a 33-20 loss, making this week a must-win if they hope to play a game in December.
Why UTEP might win: Far lesser quarterbacks than Palmer have feasted on a Marshall defense that’s 111^th in pass defense and has allowed a touchdown catch in every game.  The Miners gave up on the run a long time ago, so the Herd is going to be force fed a steady diet of Palmer, Higgins, Daniel Robinson and Joe West.  Just like last week in Greenville, once Marshall gets down by double digits, it doesn’t have the passing game to rally from a large deficit.
Why Marshall might win: League-leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw may have been stonewalled last week, but UTEP’s defense is not going to be confused with the one from East Carolina.  Bradshaw will soften the Miners’ 104^th-ranked defense, allowing Jimmy Skinner to find freshman TE Cody Slate for a long play or two down the middle of the field.
Who to watch: Marshall has got a bona fide emerging star in sophomore DE Albert McClellan, who racked up an astonishing nine tackles, 6½ tackles for loss, 3½ sacks and two forced fumbles last week alone.  He’s going to be a serious chore for a young UTEP offensive line that’s in charge of protecting a big target that lacks mobility.
What will happen: Marshall is making too many mental mistakes and turnovers these days to beat a decent team.  UTEP will capitalize by leveraging the same recipe that’s worked all year, Palmer to Higgins.
CFN Prediction: UTEP 31 … Marshall 24 .. Line: UTEP -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 1.5     
  
UAB (3-7) at Southern Miss (6-4), 8:00 EST, CSTV, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch: One-half of the Dec. 1 Conference USA championship game is set after Houston won the West.  The Cougars’ opponent is either going to be East Carolina or Southern Miss, depending upon this weekend’s games.  A Pirate win at Rice sends them to the title game, while a loss opens the door for the Golden Eagles to win out and take over first place.  Southern Miss is coming off suffocating wins over Memphis and Tulane in which the defense was relentless and the running game unstoppable.  For the first time since 1998, UAB has lost four consecutive games, a testament to the team’s inability to finish strong or play mistake-free football.  It’s beginning to look as if putting a scare into Oklahoma on opening night will be the highlight of the Blazers’ 2006 season.
Why UAB might win: The Blazers have certainly lost more than they’ve won, but Watson Brown has had them in a position to win all but the Georgia game this fall.  And that game was just 10-0 at halftime.  The Southern Miss offense can be skittish, especially since the passing game is 96^th in the country and dead last in the conference.  UAB boasts the league’s third best run defense, which they’ll use slow down freshman backs Damion Fletcher and Tory Harrison.
Why Southern Miss might win: This year’s defense has not been vintage Southern Miss, but you sure wouldn’t be able to tell from the last two weekends.  The Golden Eagles have allowed just 394 total yards and 16-of-50 passing from opposing quarterbacks.  UAB’s league-worst and injury-riddled offense is in for another long and unproductive night in Hattiesburg.
Who to watch: After two weeks of testing his surgically repaired knee, Fletcher has recaptured the form that made him an instant success in September.  The freshman sliced through Tulane last week for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, sparking a running game that got a little stale in his absence.
What will happen: Southern Miss is beginning to peak on both sides of the ball, a combination that fast fading UAB won’t be able alter.    
CFN Prediction: Southern Miss 28 … UAB 10 .. Line: Southern Miss -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 1.5

- Week 12 C-USA Fearless Predictions | Get Tickets for These Games