C-USA Fearless Predictions, Nov. 18

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 15, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Twelve Conference USA games


Conference USA
East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP
Past C-USA Picks:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

- Week 12 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games

How'd we do so far? Straight up 61-23 ... ATS 43-32-2 ATS


Conference USA Game of the Week

East Carolina (6-4) at Rice (5-5), 3:00 EST, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch: What looked like a meaningless, playing-out-the-string type game just one month ago is now quite compelling.  On Oct. 15, East Carolina was 2-4 and Rice was 2-5.  Today, the Pirates are one victory from winning the Eastern Division and the Owls have won straight, putting them firmly in contention for one of the league’s seven bowl agreements.  Thanks to an incendiary offense, Rice is a win away from, possibly, its first bowl game since 1961 and has won three straight league games on the road.  Last week’s upset of defending champ Tulsa in double-overtime was a signature win for a program that was 1-10 just last year.  As long as the defense keeps playing well, East Carolina is going to be tough to derail.  The Pirates have won four games in-a-row, their longest winning streak in four years.
Why East Carolina might win: Forget the Pirates’ overall defensive numbers, which are pedestrian.  Over the past month, this unit has really come together, allowing no more than 21 points in a game, while slamming the door shut on opposing running games.  When faced with Marshall’s Ahmad Bradshaw last week, East Carolina held the league’s leading rusher to just 26 yards on ten carries.  The up-and-down Pirate offense will be up versus a Rice defense that gives up 35 points a game and is last in the league in total defense.
Why Rice might win: This is a very confident bunch that’s done a complete about-face after taking its lumps in September.  The new spread offense has been literally unstoppable over the last weeks, averaging over 37 points a game and getting production from RB Quinton Smith and the Chase Clement to Jarrett Dillard pitch-and-catch combo.  East Carolina gets minimal pressure up front, which will afford Clement the necessary time to carve up an ordinary Pirate secondary.
Who to watch: When Dillard makes it to the NFL, he ought to send a fruit basket to Rice AD Bobby May for hiring head coach Todd Graham, who ditched the triple-option for the spread attack.  In the new offense, Dillard has flourished with 71 catches for 958 yards and at least one touchdown catch in all ten games.
What will happen: Both teams are playing well, but Rice has got something real special going on.  The Owls are hungry, growing in confidence and poised to bag that magical sixth win.  But it’s not going to happen as ECU comes up with a tight, hard fought win..
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 31 … Rice 27 .. Line: East Carolina -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 2.5
    

Houston (8-3) at Memphis (1-9), 2:00 EST, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch: With last week’s come-from-behind win over SMU, Houston secured its first Conference USA Western Division title, bringing the school one giant step closer to its first league title in a decade.  The Cougars will face either East Carolina or Southern Miss on Dec. 1, but the priority for Kevin Kolb and the league’s top offense this Saturday will be to finish strong and win the division outright.  When Memphis dropped a 26-24 game to UCF in the Liberty Bowl, it pretty much ensured that this Tiger team is destined to be the worst in school history.  With this week’s game and next week’s trip to El Paso, Memphis is staring down the barrel of a ten-game losing streak.
Why Houston might win: Aside from its week two game with I-AA Chattanooga, Memphis hasn’t stopped anyone in 2006 allowing an average of 413 yards and 32 points a game.  Even if the Tigers played the game on a power play, Houston would have no problem picking up chunks of yards and reaching the end zone.  The Cougars’ balance—No. 2 in the league in passing and rushing—will be way too much for the overmatched Memphis D.
Why Memphis might win: Let’s see.  Houston just wrapped up a spot in the league title game and now they have to hit the road to play 1-9 Memphis?  It’s going to take a door prize to get these Cougars to show up with much intensity.  The Tigers have lost eight straight, but they’ve competed week-in and week-out and have a decent enough passing game to keep pace with the Houston offense.
Who to watch: If there was a rushing efficiency rating, Houston’s Anthony Alridge would be leading the country.  The definition of a homerun threat, the former wide receiver is averaging a ridiculous 12.4 yards a carry this fall and is closing in on a 1,000-yard season, despite having just 64 carries all year.  In his four 100-yard games, Alridge is averaging 16.5 yards on 39 carries, numbers that would be respectable for a receiver.
What will happen: After playing Tulsa and SMU in meaningful games, it’s understandable if Houston is for the first two quarters.  The Cougars will wake up in the second half, pulling away on a couple of big plays in the passing game.
CFN Prediction: Houston 38 … Memphis 24 .. Line: Houston -16
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 1.5


UCF (3-7) at Tulane (3-7), 2:00 EST, Saturday, November 18
Why to watch: For the first time in more than a month, UCF had something to crow about after beating Memphis and ending a four-game losing streak.  The catalyst was QB Steven Moffett, who started for the first time in four games, and delivered 319 yards and a pair of touchdown passes.  With UAB on the schedule next week, the Golden Knights have a chance to carry some much-needed momentum and positive tidings into the off-season.  When Tulane can’t count on its offense, you know it’s in for a long day.  Witness last Saturday’s game with Southern Miss, a 31-3 loss in which the offense tallied a season-low 85 yards on 48 plays.
Why UCF might win: The Golden Knights are getting gradually better.  The Green Wave is getting noticeably worse.  UCF has tightened up on defense the last two weeks, while Moffett’s play, coupled with the running of the nation’s No. 12 rusher, Kevin Smith, gives hope to the sporadic offense.  Tulane, on the other hand, is in danger of losing its hinges after reaching a new low a week ago.  The defense is 115th nationally in points allowed and the offense has lost leading rusher Matt Forte with a torn ligament in his left knee.
Why Tulane might win: If Lester Ricard is looking to get back on track, UCF is a convenient place to start.  You can definitely throw on a Golden Knight D that allows 243 yards passing a game and has produced just ten sacks over the last seven games.  Ricard was a mess last week, but that was against USM, aka, Southern Miss, which is a whole lot stingier than UCF.
Who to watch: One of the few shining lights for UCF in 2006 has been the consistent play of WR Mike Walker, who leads Conference USA with 75 receptions for 982 yards and five touchdowns, despite always facing the other team’s best corner and not getting any support from other receivers.  He’ll get little resistance from a Tulane pass defense that’s allowed 22 touchdown passes and has just eight picks.
What will happen: While Tulane is clearly out of gas, UCF showed last week that it’s going to battle until the season’s final whistle.  The Knights will get a couple of rushing touchdowns from Smith for win No. 4.   
CFN Prediction: UCF 30 … Tulane 23 ... Line: Tulane -1.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 1.5
    

- Week 12 C-USA Fearless Predictions. Part 2 | Get Tickets for These Games