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SEC Fearless Predictions, Nov. 18, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 15, 2006


Preview and predictions for the week Twelve SEC games, Part 2


SEC
East  Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State
- Part SEC Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

How are the picks so far? SU: 68-11 ... ATS: 41-29-1

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 12
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UL Monroe (2-7) at Kentucky (6-4)  1 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: Kentucky is bowl eligible, and now it's time for the gravy with a date with one of the nation's worst teams followed up by a game at Tennessee. On a three game winning streak, UK is currently second in the SEC East and pushing for a solid bowl position, but it can't let down now. The Warhawks stunned Florida International last week to break a seven game losing streak and could use a decent performance before closing out the year with a weak North Texas squad and rival UL Lafayette.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: Kentucky might be winning, but it's defense isn't stopping anyone currently ranked second-to-last in the nation allowing 465.5 yards per game. The biggest problem continues to be a secondary that's not getting fixed allowing a nation's worst 283.4 yards per game  Vanderbilt, hardly Texas Tech or Hawaii when it comes to throwing the ball, ripped off 446 yards and a touchdown last week. UL Monroe's offense doesn't score much, but it leads the Sun Belt with 316 yards per game. 200 yards passing shouldn't be a problem, but ...
Why Kentucky Might Win: ... ULM's secondary is about to get ripped apart. The defensive front is awful at getting into the backfield meaning UK's Andre Woodson should get all the time in the world to go ballistic. The junior threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Commodores. The Warhawk offense won't be able to keep up the pace.
Who to Watch: Who'll be under center for ULM? Kinsmon Lancaster has been the main man all season long, but he got knocked out against FIU with an injured hand and had problems with it in practice this week. Some believe sophomore Chance Payne deserves the nod after completing ten of 11 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in relief. Lancaster might start this week, but Payne will probably finish.
What Will Happen: Kentucky has won seven games twice since 1984. Make it a three.
CFN Prediction
: Kentucky 38 ... UL Monroe 13  ...  Line: Kentucky -19
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 1.5

Arkansas (9-1) at Mississippi State (3-7)  2:30 PM EST Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: Would anyone have ever in a million years, in any sort of way you could've played out a simulation of the season in some computer, thought Arkansas would not only have a shot to win the SEC West, but could do it before having to face LSU? Yup, all it'll take is a win over Mississippi State and the Hogs are playing Florida for the SEC title, and maybe more. Deep in the national title chase, style points count, so it's not just about beating the Bulldogs, its about how easily it can be done. That might be so easy considering Sylvester Croom's team appears to have turned a major corner having come this close to beating Georgia and Kentucky and getting past Alabama 24-16 two weeks ago. That was a nice win, but screwing up Arkansas would be even bigger.
Why Arkansas Might Win: Can anyone slow down the Hog running game? The offensive line is playing at another level over the last few weeks opening up just enough daylight for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to tear off huge yards. Granted, Arkansas doesn't throw the ball much, but the line leads the nation in sacks allowed giving up a mere six so far. Meanwhile, the MSU offensive line has had a nightmare of a time protecting the quarterback; the Hog defensive front should be camped out in the backfield.
Why Mississippi State Might Win: Arkansas hasn't been great against hot quarterbacks Besides the opening day USC debacle against John David Booty, Alabama's John Parker Wilson ripped up the Hogs for 243 yards and three touchdowns completing 16 of 20 passes. South Carolina's Blake Mitchell came off the bench to throw for 213 yards and two scores. MSU's hard throwing Michael Henig threw for 384 yards and three touchdowns against Kentucky and 143 yards and two scores against Alabama. If he can hit on a few big pass plays, MSU might be able to stay alive.
Who to Watch: All year long, it appeared Tennessee's Robert Meachem and Alabama's D.J. Hall would be locks for the first-team All-SEC slots. That might have changed over the last three games as Arkansas junior Marcus Monk has been every bit as hot as the running game  catching 21 passes for 380 yards and five touchdowns. At 6-6 and 220 pounds, he's a matchup nightmare in single coverage and nearly unstoppable around the goal line. On the other side, MSU's number two receiver, Jamayel Smith, will try to go despite injuring his hand falling in practice. If he's not effective, that'll mean the Hog secondary can focus that much more on top target Tony Dixon.
What Will Happen: West Virginia ran for 315 yards and five touchdowns on MSU a few weeks ago. Arkansas won't do that, but it'll do enough to offset a tough start against a swarming MSU D to avoid the road upset and go on to the LSU game on a ten-game winning streak.
CFN Prediction
: Arkansas 31 ... Mississippi State 13  ...  Line: Arkansas -14
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 3

Ole Miss (3-7) at LSU (8-2)  8 PM EST GamePlan Saturday November 18th
Why to Watch: Is Ole Miss going to be more than just another LSU home sacrificial lamb? There are home field advantages, and then there's LSU, who ripped through all seven of its home games with frightening ease. Yes, the 28-14 win over Alabama was a bit of a struggle for about a quarter, but it wasn't that close. The Rebels broke a three-game losing streak with a win over Northwestern Sate before getting two weeks off to prepare. This is an improving team that'll need every trick and every big play to go its way. LSU is still in the SEC title hunt, but ...
Why Ole Miss Might Win: ... Arkansas plays Mississippi State in the afternoon, so if the Hogs win as expected, and takes the SEC West crown, LSU might have a hard time finding the intensity. If the Bulldogs win, LSU will provide a 40-point beatdown, but Ole Miss has to be mentally prepared for the possibility of getting a flat team out of the gate. An early march for a touchdown would do wonders for momentum.
Why LSU Might Win: The Ole Miss offense had a nice performance against Alabama, but cranking out points has been tough. LSU averages 34 points per game; Ole Miss hasn't scored more than 28 all year. Tiger QB JaMarcus Russell is hard to bring down even if pass rushers have a free shot at him, and against the anemic Rebel pass rush, he shouldn't have problems bombing away at will if head coach Ed Orgeron and his staff haven't used the last two weeks to devise some funky way of getting into the backfield.
Who to Watch
: When you think of some of the all-time great SEC receivers, LSU's Dwayne Bowe doesn't ring much of a bell. The senior owns the LSU career receiving touchdown mark catching his 23rd last week, and now he can erase Tommy Hodson and Wendell Davis from the top of the record books if he can hook up with Russell for a score making them the top pitch-catch combo in school history. Bowe isn't flashy, but he's ultra-solid and as consistent as they come catching four or more passes in every game but the blowout win over Arizona; he caught a mere three for 65 yards and a score against the Wildcats. He's also a fantastic blocker.
What Will Happen: LSU will overcome the emotion of not getting to play for the West title next week by coming out with a few long early drives to get the crowd into the game. Ole Miss won't have nearly enough in the bag to keep pace after the first half.
CFN Prediction
: LSU 40 ... Ole Miss 10   ...  Line: LSU -27.5
Must See Rating: (5 skip the birth of your first born - 1 The Bachelor: Rome) ... 2.5

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 12
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