This really feels like the calm before the storm, as there isn’t a whole lot going on this weekend before we get a boatload of interesting games.
Oregon @ USC (-8)
(preseason pick: USC)
At first glance, this seems like an interesting game, but to be honest I really don’t expect it to be. The Ducks have talent, but they’re far too inconsistent, and they have shown strong tendencies to get themselves into holes from time to time. They can’t expect to pull that in the Coliseum and have a realistic shot at winning. It’ll be respectable, but it won’t be very close.
@ USC 31, Oregon 17
Oregon State (-2) @ UCLA
(preseason pick: UCLA)
This is actually an interesting matchup. The first instinct is to think that Oregon State has a huge advantage. They’re on a winning streak, Yvenson Bernard gets healthier every week, Matt Moore is playing great, and their defense has been a force. Moreover, the Bruins are in the middle of a major slump, there is a mini-quarterback controversy brewing now that Ben Olson is healthy again, and it just seems like they’ve overall lost their mojo.
On the Other Hand:
Two things stand out to me. The first is that Oregon State is on the road in a game that will be emotional for Matt Moore (who started his career at UCLA). He’s a talented quarterback, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s due for a bad game.
The other factor is that this is the sort of game that the Bruins tend to pull out. At home, in a desperate situation, against a good but somewhat vulnerable team, it’s easy to see the Bruins finally getting a few bounces to go their way and finding a way to turn things around. This is still a talented team, and they’re due for a good game. Why not now?
Bottom Line:
This really looks like a major tossup. The pick is more of a gut feeling than anything tangible separating the teams either way.
@ UCLA 24, Oregon State 23
Washington State (-1) @ Arizona State
(preseason pick: Arizona State)
This is another interesting matchup. Both teams are coming off of bad performances, with the Cougars getting ambushed at home by Arizona, and the Sun Devils getting waxed at Corvallis. Moreover, it’s a game that features one of the league’s most consistently solid road teams against one of the teams that year in and year out plays light years better at home. So what’s the difference? Talent.
As long as ASU can keep Mkristo Bruce from having a field day on Carpenter, they have enough talent to move the chains on offense and keep the Cougars in relative check on the other side of the ball. It is a close matchup, but the Sun Devils should prevail (and without any sure wins left, they could really use a win too).
@ Arizona State 27, Washington State 24
Cal (-13.5) @ Arizona
(preseason pick: Cal)
On paper, this looks like a bit of a trap game. The Wildcats are coming off of a nice win at Pullman, and they’ve got Tuitama back, and the Bears have been vulnerable at times. Could Cal follow in UCLA’s footsteps last year?
On the Other Hand:
There is a big difference between Cal this year and UCLA last year. Mainly it’s the fact that the Bears are a more talented team. Also, even though they’ll be looking ahead a bit, they are simply too talented for the Wildcats to have any sort of reasonable shot at this game.
Bottom Line:
The line is just too close here. The Bears should roll.
Cal 31, @ Arizona 10
Stanford @ Washington (-19)
(preseason pick: Stanford)
The Huskies are so flaky that they could easily pull a stinker (and if you look at Willingham’s career, this certainly looks like a game he might lose). However, Stanford isn’t a good team, and it seems like they’ve given up on the season. Take the points… barely.
@ Washington 24, Stanford 7
National Games of the Week:
If you didn’t catch Louisville at Rutgers on Thursday, you’re going to regret it this weekend, since there just aren’t many compelling matchups. Other than the Vols @ Hogs, you could probably be forgiven for blowing this weekend off.
Tennessee @ Arkansas (-5.5)
Tennessee has basically nothing to play for, and Arkansas everything. And yet, this is the type of game that the Vols tend to win (road game against a good but not great SEC opponent). Time for the wimpy pick.
@ Arkansas 24, Tennessee 21
Nebraska(-1) @ Texas A&M
This should be a decent game, as both teams are good but not great. Even though they laid a major egg recently against Oklahoma State, Nebraska still looks like the better team. Even in such a hostile environment, that ought to be just enough.
Nebraska 28, Texas A&M 21
Bad Lines of the Week:
Wake Forest +8.5
To be blunt, I can’t figure out how the Deacons can even be underdogs at all in this game, let alone by over a touchdown. This is one of the weirdest lines I have seen in a long time.
Wisconsin -2
Iowa has struggled so much that I just can’t see why this line is so close.
Notre Dame -11.5
Yeah, the Irish are flaky, and yeah, they struggle sometimes, but come on. Air Force has nowhere near the horses to compete in this game.
Kansas State + 16
Texas has struggled in true road game against teams with a pulse (Rice doesn’t count). Kansas State may not be great, but they do have a pulse. This should be around a seven to ten point win.
Email of the Week
Why do you have Auburn ranked so low, behind two teams that they beat (LSU and Florida) when their only loss was to a one - loss team in Arkansas? And why are Cal and Southern Cal ranked so high? Sure, Southern Cal beat Arkansas, but they lost to an unranked team and played extremely poorly against others (Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, and for a half against Arizona). And the best team that Cal has beaten is who? Oregon? And yes, it was Cal who needed overtime to beat Washington and who have up almost 600 yards to UCLA. As a matter of fact, we are still waiting for Cal to win that big game, aren't we? To win a road game against a ranked opponent, to win a nonconference game against a ranked opponent, or to win ANY game against a top 10 (or even top 15) team.
It is hilarious: Auburn has beaten two top 14 teams in the same season, their only loss is to the #9 team, and you have them at #16. Cal was dominated by the #13 team, their only victory to a rank! ed team was over #20 Oregon (who would not be ranked at all were it not for the Oklahoma robbery at the hands of PAC - 10 referees by the way ... but for that loss Oklahoma would be headed for an 11 - 1 season and a sure at - large BCS berth), and they are ranked 6th.
I still oppose a playoff, but stuff like this really shows that the media just flat out has it out for some teams and are going to always advance others.
Thomas Madison
Memphis, TN
I get emails like this from time to time, but here he took the time to make his case, so it’s only fair to give him a response in kind.
To start with, the easy response is about Auburn. He makes decent points about Auburn’s strengths, but he also overlooks their weaknesses. Yes, they have beaten two top 14 teams (according to my rankings), and yes, their only loss was to my number nine, but that analysis misses some important points.
First of all, all of those games were at home. Not everyone emphasizes road performance, but I always take notice of it, and in Auburn’s case that’s not a good thing. They may have blasted Mississippi State, but they struggled against South Carolina (not good, but forgivable) and Ole Miss (not forgivable). That’s it for the Tigers’ games on the road, and thanks to Alabama’s struggles, they will end the regular season without a single road game against anyone even on the verge of the top 25. That matters to me.
The second point (keeping in mind that all of these games were at home) was that they got completely crushed by Arkansas. I saw most of that game, and they got flat-out dominated. It’s certainly not a good thing to over-emphasize any single one result (that’s why I put very little weight to the whole “Team A beat Team B, therefore they MUST be ranked higher” argument), but that’s still a very decisive result. And don’t forget, that came one week after the Razorbacks barely eked out a win over Alabama, a game which by rights they probably should have lost.
The third point is that those wins weren’t nearly as good as they seemed. Yes, those were good teams, but Auburn hardly dominated either game. They beat LSU by just four yards, which to me means that, despite winning, they achieved no real separation from the Tigers for that result (again, many people have a different standard, and will say that all that matters is who won, and forget everything else, but I just don’t work that way). Indeed, the only significant argument that the Tigers have for being ranked highly is their win over Florida. However, that game felt fluky, with the Gators essentially collapsing as much as the Tigers really won it. You may disagree, but that’s how I saw the game, and so (from what I can tell) did many other observers.
To be blunt, I think that Auburn is the SEC’s fifth best team, behind Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Tennessee. They have struggled too often, and have too few strong performances to back up the high ranking that the general public has given them.
As for USC and Cal, I stated outright that everyone that I had between 4 and 9 was pretty close, and those rankings were very fluid. If you want to say that Florida, Boise or Arkansas, or maybe even all of those three, are better than USC and/or Cal, be my guest. There’s a good argument to be made on that front, but I simply believe that USC and Cal have played slightly better than those three teams I just listed.
As for the arguments you specifically cited about USC and Cal, here is my response to why you did not tell the whole story: yes, USC did lose to an unranked Oregon State team (though they are #24 in the BCS and just barely outside of the top 25 in the polls), their loss was extremely close (a two-point conversion away from overtime) and on the road. Moreover, though they have struggled against some teams, they also crushed Arkansas on the road and won easily against Nebraska. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
As for Cal, yes they did struggle against Washington, and yes they did lose at Tennessee by 17 back in week one, but they also have won convincingly against pretty much everyone else they have played all year long. You may not be impressed by consecutive blowouts of Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon and Washington State, but I believe that is worthy of respect.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com