BCS Analysis - Week Five, Nov. 12

Breaking down the top ten in the week four BCS rankings

BCS Rankings | Computer Rankings

The world has changed in a huge way. With Louisville, Texas, Auburn and California losing, USC, Florida, Rutgers, Notre Dame and Arkansas become players in the race for the number two spot. USC is in the best position with the biggest games ahead, but it might be about style points now. Remember, the human polls count as 2/3rds of this, so what you see in the Coaches' and Harris polls will likely be what you see in the final BCS standings.

Of interest to note, Boise State is 12th in the latest rakings and Notre Dame moved from ninth to fifth. That means that if both teams win out, they'll get automatic bids to a BCS game.

Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year goes on, but once again, the two polls will be the biggest factors.

The Big Winners: USC (7th to 3rd), Rutgers (13th to 6th), Arkansas (11th to 7th), Notre Dame (9th to 5th), Wisconsin (15th to 9th)
The Big Losers: Louisville (3rd to 10th), Texas (5th to 13th), Auburn (6th to 14th), California (8th to 15th), Tennessee (16th to 22nd)

1. Ohio State   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 1
Now the question becomes whether or not Ohio State would still be in the BCS Championship Game if it loses to Michigan. The Texas loss to Kansas State hurt Ohio State's computer ranking and dropped the overall ranking down a bit, but there's still a huge gap between the Buckeyes and USC. Even so, if USC wins out and OSU loses, the human polls would adjust enough to make a rematch unlikely without a Trojan loss.
predicted wins: Michigan
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: BCS Championship

2. Michigan   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 2
The Wolverines are second in the BCS rankings, but only by a mere 0.002. Five of the six computers still like Michigan best, but that will quickly change if there's a loss to Ohio State next week and if USC keeps winning. All eyes will be on the human polls depending on what happens in the showdown in Columbus. A close loss to Ohio State might mean a drop to no lower than third in the human polls, but a sizeable defeat could end up moving USC into the number two BCS slot.
predicted wins: None
predicted losses: at Ohio State
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl

3. USC   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 7
USC made the most significant jump in the rankings leapfrogging Florida into the coveted number three spot. The ranking will only get better by winning out with Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA ahead, so even after the loss to Oregon State a few weeks ago, it appears to be a three-game season for a shot at the national title. While fourth in the Coaches' poll, the No. 3 ranking in the Harris Poll helps. Depending on how the Michigan - Ohio State game plays out, the Trojans might be a lock for the second spot in all the polls next week.
predicted wins: California, Notre Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship

4. Florida    Last Week's BCS Ranking: 4
Florida keeps winning, but it's not looking like a world-beater with a middling offense and a solid, but not national-title caliber defense. Do the pollsters care? The Coaches' Poll likes the Gators by a slim margin over USC, while the Harris Poll likes the Trojans better. The computers like Rutgers, Notre Dame and USC better, but that can quickly change if Arkansas keeps winning and if the Gators end up winning the SEC Championship finishing 12-1. While the No. 2 spot appears to be USC's to lose, Florida could make this extremely close.
predicted wins: Western Carolina, at Florida State
predicted losses: SEC Championship
predicted record: 11-2
predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl

5. Notre Dame   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 9
The Irish made a huge leap up four spots thanks to losses from Texas, Auburn and Cal, and now is well within range of the national title game. If Notre Dame wins out, Arkansas loses to LSU, Florida loses the SEC Championship game, and Rutgers loses to West Virginia (all very possible), the Irish would get very, very, very close to the title game if they're not in.
predicted wins: Army
predicted losses: at USC
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl

6. Rutgers   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 13
Thanks to the win over Louisville, Rutgers became the hot team in the BCS rankings getting the number two spot by four of the six computers and the third spot by the other two. It's going to take a lot of help with USC losing to Cal or UCLA, Notre Dame losing to USC, Arkansas losing to LSU or Mississippi State, and Florida losing along the way to get close, but it's going to take a big move up in the human polls to have any shot of the championship game. The ceiling might be the No. 3 spot unless the Scarlet Knights destroy West Virginia in Morgantown. If Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers all finish 11-1, the highest ranked team according to the BCS would be in.
predicted wins: at Cincinnati, Syracuse
predicted losses: at West Virginia
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Gator Bowl

7. Arkansas   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 11
The major wild card in the mix, along with Rutgers, Arkansas needs some help from the computer polls and needs far more respect from the humans. It'll all come with wins against LSU and in the SEC Championship over Florida. However, the Hogs might need some help needing USC and Notre Dame to slip along the way to be even close to No. 2. If Arkansas wins out, expect it to finish fourth.
predicted wins: at Mississippi State, SEC Championship
predicted losses: LSU
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl

8. West Virginia   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 10
The Rutgers win over Louisville meant everything to the Mountaineers. Now, by winning out, West Virginia would likely finish as the highest ranked of the Big East teams meaning an automatic spot in the BCS. The computers are never going to like the Mountaineers. Forget about any talk of being among the one-loss teams in the national title discussion.
predicted wins: at Pitt, South Florida, Rutgers
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Orange Bowl

9. Wisconsin   Last Week's BCS Ranking: 15
With only a game against Buffalo to close things out, Wisconsin will finish 11-1 (barring the upset of the year) with a shot to finish up the season ranked in the top five. Unfortunately for the Badgers, a spot in a BCS game is all but out of the question unless Michigan blows out Ohio State and the human polls move Bret Bielema's team way up.
predicted wins: Buffalo
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl

10. Louisville  Last Week's BCS Ranking: 3
The BCS is still a distant possibility with a lot of help, but getting the Big East bid might be impossible. The loss to Rutgers took Louisville from the verge of the national title to also-ran, but the computers are still impressed and there's a chance to keep moving up to finish in the top five when all is said and done.
predicted wins: South Florida, Connecticut, at Pitt
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Texas Bowl

In Range
11. LSU
12. Boise State
13. Texas
14. Auburn
15. California
16. Wake Forest
17. Oklahoma
18. Georgia Tech
19. Maryland
20. Boston College