-
Week
12
Big Ten Fearless Predictions
- Could Michigan and
Ohio State play a rematch in the title game?
Michigan (11-0) vs. Ohio State (11-0)
Nov. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Just when you think Michigan vs. Ohio
State couldn't be any bigger, badder, or more vital, the battle has
somehow gone to another level.
In today's day and age of 24-hour sports with championships and
overblown, overhyped big games that are forgotten as quickly as last
month's ABC reality show, (cough, 2006 World Series, cough) this is
a sporting event that's actually worthy of the attention. This isn't
some game at the end of a fluky, month-long March tournament. It's
not a run-of-the-mill championship series that just so happens to be
at the end of a long, grueling professional season. This is history.
This is the best rivalry in all of American sports being played with
more at stake, more attention, and more anticipation than any game
these two mega-powers have ever played.
This game matters.
This is one of those rare events that you can't miss, or there's
going to be a gaping hole in your personal résumé. It's Bird vs.
Magic. It's Marino vs. Montana. It's Jennifer Lopez vs. Jessica Biel.
If you count the 2006 Rose Bowl as part of the 2005 season, this
will be the sporting event of the year.
|
National
Rankings |
|
Ohio
State |
Michigan |
|
Total Offense |
|
19th 401.27 ypg |
34th 372.91 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
8th 261.73 ypg |
3rd 231.45 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
8th 35.82 ppg |
26th 29.36 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
1st 7.82 ppg |
5th 12.09 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
20th 179.45 ypg |
12th 194.55 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
11th 90.18 ypg |
1st 29.91 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
37th 221.82 ypg |
82nd 178.36 |
|
Pass Defense |
|
23rd 171.55 ypg |
65th 201.55 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
3rd 1.27 |
8th 1.09 |
|
Ohio State
No. Illinois W
35-12
at Texas W 24-7
Cincinnati
W 37-7
Penn State
W 28-6
at Iowa W 38-17
B Green
W 35-7
at Mich St
W 38-7
Indiana
W 44-3
Minnesota
W 44-0
at Illinois
W 17-10
at Nwest.
W 54-10 |
Michigan
Vanderbilt
W 27-7
Central Mich
W 41-17
at N Dame
W 47-21
Wisconsin
W 27-13
at Minn.
W 28-14
Mich State
W 31-13
at Penn St W 17-10
Iowa
W 20-6
Nwestern
W 17-3
Ball State
W 34-26
at Indiana
W 34-3 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
O |
5
highest
1 lowest |
M |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
4.5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4.5 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
To put this into a
historical perspective, since 1913 these two have combined for all or part of 72 Big Ten titles,
and after this week, it's going to be 73 with the two finishing 1-2 in the
conference standings 17 times since 1968. Everyone
else, including the University of Chicago, has combined for 82 Big
Ten titles. In other words, the showdown between these two has
meant everything to the Big Ten race for almost a century, and now
they're playing their most important game ever.
Ohio State has been number one from pillar to post coming in on an
18-game winning streak along with two straight wins over Michigan. All
concerns about losing a who's who of NFL defensive talent, along
with first-round draft pick WR Santonio Holmes, were quickly erased
with a dominant 24-7 win at Texas in early September to be firmly
planted in the top spot. Outside of a 17-10 win over Illinois that
really wasn't quite the late scare many made it out to be, and a
28-6 win over Penn State that required two pick-sixes from the
secondary to put it away, no one's been even close.
With a win this week, QB Troy Smith will win the Heisman in a
landslide as the leader of a high-octane offense with an
embarrassment of weapons and the best offensive line in the Jim
Tressel era. The defense doesn't get nearly the recognition or
respect of Michigan's, but it's No. 1 in the nation in scoring
D allowing just 7.82 points per game and eighth in total defense
allowing just 262 yards per game. This is a rock-solid team with no
apparent holes, but so is Michigan.
There were rumblings this summer that this had the potential to be a
special Wolverine team after a stunning transformation from a big,
bruising, plodding program to a lean, mean, fighting machine that
got trimmer on the lines and more explosive on defense. It was as if
all the team's great athletes were hiding under an extra five-to-ten
pounds.
A 47-21 win at Notre Dame, that wasn't as close as the final score
would indicate, put Michigan on the 2006 national title map, and it
rolled through the rest of the slate thanks to the nation's third ranked
defense. The offense was just efficient enough to keep the chains
moving, and when WR Mario Manningham was fully healthy, the attack
was able to throw some big-time knockout punches in battles against
Wisconsin and Minnesota. In a position to play for the national
title for the first time since 1997, Michigan is every bit Ohio
State's equal.
So sit back, relax, send the family out to Chuck E. Cheese's for the
afternoon, and enjoy. This is why you watch college football. This
is why you watch sports.
Players to watch: It's Troy Smith's world and the
rest of college football is just taking up space. The Buckeye senior
just has to be decent and get the win to take home the Heisman, but
his history against Michigan suggests he'll be more than just
effective. His national coming out party came in the 37-21 win in
2004, and he established himself as a clutch, go-to playmaker in
last year's 25-21 win. In the two games, Smith completed 40 of 60
passes (67%) for 541 yards and three touchdowns with no
interceptions and ran 29 times for 182 yards and two touchdowns. But
the Buckeyes are hardly just Smith.
Buckeye sophomore LB Jim Laurinaitis has stepped into the
role as the team's signature defensive star finding his way into big
play after big play. Not just a rock against the run, he's been
solid at getting into the backfield and has five interceptions on
the year. It'll be his job to keep Michigan RB Mike Hart from
getting going and to force the Wolverines to try to win through the
air.
As the workhorse of the offense, Hart has been a fringe Heisman
candidate and now has the spotlight on. For Michigan to win, he
needs to come up with a signature performance after being held to 15
yards by the Buckeyes last year, because of injury, and only gaining
61 with a touchdown in 2004. If he gains 100 yards and leads the
Wolverines to the win, look for him to join Notre Dame's Brady Quinn
as the Heisman front runners.
Michigan
will win if... defensive end LaMarr Woodley has a first-round
draft pick type of game. Troy Smith has pulled off a few brilliant,
Houdini acts to get out of some bad situations to make big plays,
but he hasn't had to face any pass rushers of Woodley's caliber.
When Smith gets five days to throw, which is most of the time behind
the great Buckeye line, forget it; he can pick anyone apart. The
Wolverines have to get consistent pressure and try to force Smith to
make quicker decisions and make plays on the move to let the fast
back seven clean everything up. The more Smith forces his passes,
the more plays Leon Hall and the talented Wolverine secondary will
make.
Ohio
State will win if... it gets up early. Ohio State
lives on cold, efficient offensive play
and letting the other team screw up.
Call it conservative, call it Tressel
Ball, call it a winning formula, but
with a veteran leader like Smith, who's
hardly going to be rattled, a 10-0 lead
could be enough to coast. A lead would
get the crowd into the game and allow
everyone to exhale (unlike the pin-drop,
nervousness of the 2002 game, the last
time the national title was on the
line), and it would keep Smith from
having to force the offense. Michigan
will want to establish the run early and
wait for the home run to open up in the
passing game, but that can't happen if
it's in comeback mode.
What will happen: Those who don't learn from history are
doomed to repeat it. As anyone who's
ever followed the history of this
rivalry knows, Michigan almost always
ruins Ohio State's dreams. The 2002
game, won by the Buckeyes 14-9 on the
way to the national championship, is one
recent exception, but this Michigan team
is far better. 1996, 1995, 1993, 1977,
1969 ... Michigan has a way of
historically screwing things up. The
Wolverine defensive front will
completely shut down the Buckeye running
game, while CB Leon Hall will erase Ted
Ginn from the game plan. Chad Henne will
connect with Mario Manningham on one big
pass, Mike Hart will run for a short
score, and the defense will bend, but
won't break forcing several good Buckeye
drives to end in field goals. Fittingly,
the Michigan defense will come up with a
big late stop to seal the win.
Line: Ohio State -6.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Michigan
17 ... Ohio State 16