Now this is what it’s all about. There are some great games on tap this weekend, and quite a few other intriguing ones to boot. This is definitely the weekend to put everything on hold and make sure that you spend it all in front of the TV watching football. Trust me on this.
Cal @ USC (-6)
(preseason pick: USC)
What, you expected some other game to be at the top of this list? This is a game between the two best teams in the Pac-10, a game that was anticipated since even before the season started. And with all of the talent on both rosters, it shouldn’t disappoint.
It may be easy to casually dismiss Cal after their loss last week in Tucson, but that would be a mistake. They are still a very good team, with a great pair of running backs, a great receiver in Desean Jackson, a fast, talented defense, and a solid quarterback. When you’ve got all of that, you’re a threat at any time, any place.
On the Other Hand:
The Bears have simply not been a consistently good road team this year. They played well at Corvallis and Pullman, but they just weren’t very good at Knoxville back in September and then at Tucson this past weekend. Moreover, you can’t forget their ugly performance at home against Washington a few weeks ago. If they get into a slump again, they are very capable of letting this game get out of hand.
Moreover, even if Cal does bring their A game, USC just has too much talent. The Trojans are very strong on defense, John Booty has only gotten better as the year has gone along, and their receiver corps is fantastic. They may have struggled at times, but they are still a team that is good enough to have a good chance to beat anyone, anywhere, anytime.
Bottom Line:
Cal does have a shot at this game, but they’ll have to play at an even higher level than they did in their big wins this year to be able to pull it off. Most likely, USC will pull ahead at some point and not look back. They’re just too talented to expect them to lose here.
@ USC 27, Cal 14
UCLA @ Arizona State (-5.5)
(preseason pick: ASU)
This should be a fun shootout, as both teams have talent on both sides of the ball, but still are better on offense than on defense. That said, this line is just too low. UCLA simply isn’t a very good road team, and that shouldn’t change here. The Bruins may desperately need this victory, but they won’t get it against another team that always plays a lot better at home.
@ Arizona State 35, UCLA 24
Washington @ Washington State (-8)
(preseason pick: Washington State)
On paper, it really looks like the Huskies are outmatched. Losers of two straight Apple Cups and six straight regular season games, U-Dub faces a major uphill climb if they want to win this game. And the Cougars are going to be looking for redemption after getting swept by the Arizona schools, including an embarrassing blowout in Tempe last week. Wazzu knows that if they lose this game they might get left out of the bowl party, so you can expect an even greater level of effort than normal since they have so much at stake.
On the Other Hand:
3, 8, 3, 4. No, those aren’t the new Lost computer numbers. Those are the last four Apple Cup margins, which have been split evenly between the two teams despite Wazzu being a favorite in all four of them (and the Cougars were favorites back in 2001 too, and got beaten by 12). The point here is that Washington virtually always seems to save their best effort for this game, and that you can’t ignore their chances just because they’ve been struggling of late. In fact, if you throw out Arizona’s letdown last year, the last time U-Dub had any real momentum coming into this game was 2002, and yet they’re always competitive. You never want to overemphasize a trend, but that’s a pretty strong trend in this case.
Bottom Line:
This is the annual game where the Huskies overachieve, and the Cougars are too up and down to somehow expect them to be able to lay a beating on them this time around. This one should be another down to the wire finish, but the smart money is still on the Cougs.
@ Washington State 24, Washington 21
Arizona @ Oregon (-14)
(preseason pick: Oregon)
Arizona comes into this game on a roll, having just won two straight including a major upset win over Cal. Oregon comes into this game struggling, having just gotten killed at USC and really needing a rebound victory. It almost seems as if Arizona has a good shot to win this game.
On the Other Hand:
It’s at Autzen, and the Wildcats haven’t exactly been tearing it up on the road other than their win at Pullman. That’s a very tough task for a team with a young quarterback who is still finding himself.
Bottom Line:
Both teams have been up and down, which certainly gives the Wildcats a shot. This one should be close, but expect the better team to pull it off in the end.
@ Oregon 31, Arizona 21
Oregon State (-14.5)@ Stanford
(preseason pick: Oregon State)
Well, if momentum counts for anything, that’s a definite advantage for the Cardinal, as they come off of a big win at Washington while the Beavers come into this game trying to recover from an ugly loss at the Rose Bowl. If both teams play like they did last week, look out: this could be another upset. Moreover, Oregon State will apparently be without receiver Anthony Wheat-Brown. When things are going poorly, it’s never good to have to swallow a suspension to a key player.
On the Other Hand:
That’s quite a big if. The Beavers may be vulnerable to turnovers, but it’s somewhat unusual for them to kill themselves that badly in consecutive weeks. And Stanford still has major issues on both sides of the ball, so even if Oregon State doesn’t play great they should still win.
Bottom Line:
The Beavers have nothing at stake here besides winning, so don’t expect them to run it up or break out everything in their playbook right before the Civil War. Stanford isn’t good enough to take advantage and win, but they’ll find a way to make it respectable.
Oregon State 24, @ Stanford 10
National Games of the Week:
Obviously Michigan @ Ohio State is going to dominate the college football landscape this weekend. However, there are still some other interesting games out there, though of course none measure up in import to the big one.
Michigan @ Ohio State (-7)
Somehow it’s gotten almost trendy to pick the Wolverines in this game. I don’t quite get it. Obviously they have a reasonable shot, but Ohio State is still better, and they’re still at home. The Buckeye run defense hasn’t been fantastic, but it’s hardly terrible either. I just can’t pick Michigan here, though I do think it’ll be close.
@ Ohio State 27, Michigan 21
Virginia Tech (-1) @ Wake Forest
This could be a good game, as both teams are playing fairly well. That said, Wake is still on an ATS hot streak, and they’re still grossly underrated by Vegas. There’s no reason to get off of this train.
@ Wake Forest 27, Virginia Tech 20
Auburn (-3) @ Alabama
Auburn is up and down, but Bama is just down.
Auburn 28, @ Alabama 17
Bad Lines of the Week:
Rutgers -6
Either Cincy got a LOT better in the last week, or there’s an important injury I don’t know about. Or this line is just totally out of whack.
Western Michigan +17
Florida State is the better team, but not by 17 points. Don’t be shocked if this game turns out to be an upset. FYI, the money line for them was +720 last I checked. In other words, Vegas thinks they have very little chance of winning. With how up and down the Noles have been, I disagree.
Idaho +11
The Vandals have yet to lose to a bad team. Fresno is a bad team.
Tennessee -7.5
Vandy is always good for a few close games each year. Rocky Top’s payback game for last year (plus a bounceback after the blowout at Arkansas) won’t be one of those games.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com