Arkansas might have already won the SEC West, but it's still in the fight for the national title. LSU can claim it's the hottest team in the SEC with a win over the Hogs, and could end up in the BCS if it's impressive. Can Casey Dick and Arkansas get it done?
LSU
(9-2) at
Arkansas
(10-1) 2:30 PM EST CBS Friday,
November 24th Why to Watch: While Arkansas has
already clinched the SEC West and will
play Florida for the conference title
next week, in the court of public
opinion, this will be for the honor of
being the best team in the division.
Arkansas is fourth in the pecking order
behind Michigan, USC and Florida in the
hunt for the number two spot in the BCS
race behind Ohio State, but that can
change in a huge hurry with an
impressive win over the Tigers and a
blowout over the Gators. For LSU, it's
playing for a possible at-large BCS bid.
Notre Dame and Michigan are locks, while
Boise State has to beat Nevada to leave
just one spot let. If the Broncos lose
and LSU beats Arkansas, Les Miles' crew,
currently on a five-game winning streak,
might be Rose Bowl bound. Why LSU Might Win: Defense,
defense, defense. LSU's D is number one
in the country, third in scoring D,
eighth against the pass, and most
importantly in this game, sixth against
the run allowing just 75 yards per game.
The defensive line has dominated all
season giving up just three 100-yard
team rushing games and four touchdowns.
How did Ole Miss come so close to
pulling off the shocker? LSU's offense
went through the motion and RB BenJarvus
Green-Ellis had a workmanlike 96-yard
day. Chalk it up to a bit of a letdown;
the Tigers will be frothing at the mouth
looking to shut down Darren McFadden and
the Hog ground game. Arkansas can't win
if it has to throw. Why Arkansas Might Win: Has LSU
actually faced a running team yet?
Auburn and Kenny Irons moved the ball a
bit, but they've hardly been sensational
this year. Fresno State got down big
early and had to throw. Tennessee's
ground game was dead in the water once
QB Erik Ainge was knocked out allowing
the Tigers to put eight men in the box
on every play. The Hog offensive line
will hit LSU in the mouth for one of the
first times all season long while
McFadden and Felix Jones are the best
backs the defense has seen. On the other
side of the ball, the Hog defense might
be among the most underrated in the
nation and should keep this from being
any sort of a shootout. Take away the 50
point disaster in the opener against USC
and Arkansas is giving up just 12 points
per game. Who to Watch: McFadden didn't get
into the Heisman race this year despite
rushing for 1,303 yards and 12
touchdowns, catching a scoring pass,
throwing for two scores and returning a
kickoff for a touchdown. He can
establish himself early on as the front
runner for the 2007 campaign if he
lights up LSU for 100 yards in front of
a national audience. The real key for
the Hogs will be sophomore QB Casey
Dick, who doesn't have to throw for 300
yards, but he does have to be effective
on third downs and can't turn the ball
over. In other words, he has to managed
the game. What Will Happen: Arkansas will
run better on LSU than any team has all
year, and the Hog defensive front will
shut down the Tiger running game, but
JaMarcus Russell will come up with two
sharp second half drives to win a
classic.
CFN Prediction:
LSU 17 ... Arkansas 13 ...
Line: Pick Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Deck the
Halls)
... 4.5
Florida
(10-1) at
Florida
State
(6-5) 12 PM EST ABC Saturday,
November 25th Why to Watch: It's beauty contest
time. USC has a spot in the national
title there for the taking by beating
Notre Dame and UCLA, and while the
Gators are still sort of in the hunt, no
one's doing backflips over the idea of
putting them in over Michigan if the
Trojans lose. Florida, who's going to
the SEC Championship game next week to
face Arkansas, has to make the voters
want to see a Buckeye-Gator matchup, and
the only way that happens is with a
complete and total obliteration of
Florida State followed up by an
impressive blowout win over Arkansas.
It's not that Florida has been bad, it's
that it's been, well, zzzzzzzzs in tight
wins over average teams like Vanderbilt,
South Carolina and Georgia. Florida
State needs some sort of a win to pull
up out of the nosedive into mediocrity
after losing to Wake Forest and
struggling against Western Michigan over
the last two weeks. The nightmare of a
season can take an immediate turn by
ruining Florida's national title dreams. Why Florida Might Win: The
Florida State offense has been abysmal
since good performances against Maryland
and Virginia. The running game was
always an issue, but all of a sudden,
the passing attack went from
inconsistent to non-existent with Drew
Weatherford and Xavier Lee taking turns
to see who can stink more. Part of the
problem has been the mediocre play of an
offensive line that's not giving the
quarterbacks enough time to work and
isn't opening up anything for the
running game. The Florida defensive
line, now that it gets DE Jarvis Moss
back from a one-game suspension, will
take up residence in the Seminole
backfield. Why Florida State Might Win:
Pressure. Lost in FSU's lost season has
been the great play of the blitzing,
attacking linebacking corps that's
making play after play in the backfield
and doing a great job of getting to the
quarterback. Florida's tackles have been
average at best in pass protection, and
time and time again, QB Chris Leak has
proven to be lousy when he's under any
sort of a hurry. Give Leak time and
he'll carve you apart. Get someone in
his face and his throws will sail all
over the place. The Seminole secondary
will get several chances to make plays,
and if it can take advantage, the
offense will get short fields to work
with. Who to Watch: In this week's
edition of Florida State's game of
musical chairs, Weatherford will get the
start despite completing nine of 25
passes for 86 yards and two
interceptions over the last two weeks.
The coaching staff plans to let him go
as long as he's effective, unlike last
week, when the idea was to get Xavier
Lee more work early on. Lee completed
nine of 13 passes for 144 yards and two
touchdowns against Western Michigan, and
was far better than Weatherford, but
there's no set plan to get him on the
field.
What Will Happen: Florida State will
be jacked up early, and the defense will
keep this from getting ugly, but it
won't matter. Florida will play its
tightest game in weeks pulling away in
the second half.
CFN Prediction:
Florida 31 ... Florida State 17 ...
Line: Florida -9.5 Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Deck the
Halls)
... 3.5
South
Carolina
(6-5) at
Clemson
(8-3) 12 PM EST Saturday, November 25th Why to Watch: South Carolina
looks to get its first win in the bitter
in-state rivalry for the first time
since 2001. The Tigers have won four
straight in the series and could
desperately use a bit of a confidence
boost after struggling a bit too much
with NC State a few weeks ago and losing
to Virginia Tech and Maryland after
stomping on Georgia Tech in late
October. The Gator Bowl would love to
jump all over Tommy Bowden's club, even
through the Chick-fil-A Bowl is more
likely, but first, the Tigers have to
win. South Carolina just wants to go
somewhere, and it will, but it needs to
win to be 100% assured of a spot. Coming
off their best performance of the year
in a 52-7 annihilation of Middle
Tennessee, the Gamecocks are looking for
their first good victory of the season.
So far, their best win was over
Kentucky, but they've battled hard
against the big boys like Florida,
Arkansas, Tennessee and Auburn. Why South Carolina Might Win:
Clemson's offense has lots of pizzazz
and tons of production, but it's not
scoring. Turnovers haven't really been a
problem, and the productive balance has
been there against everyone except
Virginia Tech, but the points have been
hard to come by over the last three
weeks. South Carolina's defense gives up
yards, but not a lot of points. On the
other side of the ball, the USC offense
has found its passing game as the season
has gone on helped by the reemergence of
Blake Mitchell, who has thrown for 876
yards over the last three games.
Clemson's secondary hasn't faced a good
passing game a top-notch passing game
all year. Why Clemson Might Win: The South
Carolina run defense is overrated. It
can be tough at times, and LB Jasper
Brinkley has been unbelievable
throughout the year, but the defense
front can be moved around and the
linebackers will give up a few
next-level runs. Arkansas was able to
crank out yards in chunks, while others
haven't been able to come up with the
balanced needed to open things up for
the ground game. A few big deep throws
early should be just enough to keep the
safeties back and provide the sliver of
daylight needed for the speed backs. Now
... Who to Watch: ... can the 1-2
tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller
produce? The world saw what they could
do in the scintillating performance
against Georgia Tech, and then the
machine shut down against Virginia Tech
and struggled to get back to the
previous form. Spiller carried the day
against NC State rushing for 154 yards
and a touchdown, while Davis went from
being a candidate for the Doak Walker
award to off the map after running for
30 yards against Virginia Tech and 34
against the Wolfpack. If one's not
running well, the other usually picks up
the slack. If the two are rolling,
Clemson is unstoppable. What Will Happen: Make it five in
a row. Clemson has too much firepower to
be kept under wraps for a third straight
week. USC's offense is way too average
against good defenses. Blake Mitchell
will go back to being Blake Mitchell.
CFN Prediction:
Clemson 26 ... South Carolina 17 ...
Line: Clemson -5 Must See Rating: (5 skip the
birth of your first born - 1 Deck the
Halls)
... 3
