SEC
East
Florida
| Georgia
| Kentucky
| South Carolina
| Tennessee
| Vanderbilt
West
Alabama
| Arkansas
| Auburn
| LSU |
Ole Miss
| Miss State
- Past SEC Predictions:
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11
|
Week 12
|
Week 13
How are the picks so far? SU:
79-14 ... ATS: 44-37-2
-
Get Tickets for the SEC Championship
Arkansas (10-2) vs. Florida (11-1)
Dec. 3,
6:00 p.m. ET, CBS
The SEC championship game should be a
cause for celebration as a chance to crown the best team in the
nation's best conference. Instead, this year's showdown, despite all
the great storylines, is a little bit empty.
Winning the SEC title should be enough to make a season a success by
any standard, but Florida is hoping beyond hope to have a shot at
the national title. With the nation's toughest schedule, head coach
Urban Meyer and the Gator faithful are pleading up and down that a
trip to Glendale would be well deserved no matter what USC does
against UCLA. However, it'll take a Trojan loss and a Florida win in
a big blowout to have any chance of jumping over Michigan to play
Ohio State for the national championship. The USC game starts 90
minutes before the SEC Championship, so there will be plenty of
scoreboard watching.
BCS title implications aside, a Florida win would mean a return to
the top while fulfilling the potential and expectations set when
Meyer was hired two years ago, exorcising the demons of the Ron Zook
regime, and finally closing the door on the Steve Spurrier era.
For Arkansas, a win would send the program into the stratosphere. A
young, young, young team everywhere but on the offensive line,
Houston Nutt's club will be the flavor of the year going into 2007
if it can win the SEC title in the program's third shot. The Hogs
lost to Georgia in 2002 and to Florida in 1995 by a combined score
of 64-6, but this group is much stronger and much more talented. As
excited as the fan base and the team might be for a stunning run to
the West title, last week's loss to LSU put a bit of a damper on the
festivities. That'll quickly be forgotten with a win and a trip the
Sugar Bowl.
|
National
Rankings |
|
Arkansas |
Florida |
|
Total Offense |
|
31st 384.42 ypg |
21st 398.25 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
29th 299.83 ypg |
10th 265.25 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
21st 30.17 ppg |
34th 28.08 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
21st 16.75 ppg |
4th 12.25 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
4th 236.25 ypg |
41st 156.83 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
37th 117.25 ypg |
5th 69.67 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
105th 148.17 ypg |
25th 241.42 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
36th 182.58 ypg |
55th 195.58 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
74th -0.25 |
54th 0.08 |
|
Arkansas
USC L 50-14
Utah State
W 20-0
at Vanderbilt
W 21-19
Bama
W 24-23 2OT
at Auburn W 27-10
SE Miss St
W 63-7
Ole Miss
W 38-3
UL Monroe
W 44-10
at S Carolina
W 26-20
Tennessee
W 31-14
at Miss St
W 28-14
LSU L 31-26 |
Florida
So. Miss W 34-7
UCF
W 42-0
at Tenn.
W 21-20
Kentucky
W 26-7
Alabama
W 28-13
LSU W 23-10
at Auburn
L 27-17
Georgia
W 21-14
at Vandy
W 25-19
S Carolina
W 17-16
W Carolina
W 62-0
at Fla St W 21-14 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
A |
5
highest
1 lowest |
F |
|
2 |
Quarterbacks |
4.5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
5 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
The Hogs were
supposed to be a year away from being a player. With a great
recruiting class led by QB Mitch Mustain, and several underclassmen
needing time, no one expected a championship with Auburn and LSU
looking like preseason national title contenders. After a 50-14 loss
to USC to start the season, getting to Atlanta hardly seemed like a
reasonable dream. After squeaking by Vanderbilt and beating Alabama
in overtime on a missed extra point, the Hogs shocked the college
football world by rolling past Auburn 27-10 to take the lead role in
the West race.
The schedule worked out perfectly over the second half of the season
with breather after breather allowing the team to mature, improve,
and gain confidence. By the time the road trip to South Carolina and
the home date with Tennessee came around, the Hogs appeared ready to
fulfill their potential much earlier than expected.
While Arkansas had it relatively easy for an SEC team playing six
bowl bound teams, along with dregs like Utah State, SE Missouri
State and UL Monroe, Florida was dealing with a slate that didn't
just turn out to be the toughest, it was No. 1 by a relatively large
margin over Cincinnati's schedule. Oh sure, there was a Western
Carolina and a UCF to deal with, and some of the heavy hitters
didn't turn out to be that big a deal, but a schedule that saw
Southern Miss (who's in the Conference USA title game), Tennessee,
Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida
State meant the Gators played nine bowl bound teams, and now it gets
Arkansas.
Everyone was waiting all year for the Gators to break out and start
funnin' 'n' gunnin' Urban-Utah style, but it never happened. Florida
won on defense, timely offense, and always getting the spark of life
just when it was needed most from freshman QB Tim Tebow. Just
getting through the tough schedule is impressive, but now it's about
style.
Will Florida be so focused on trying to win big that it might lose
press too hard? Will the Arkansas ground game roll on the nation's
fifth ranked defense? Forget the national title ramifications; this
game will be fantastic on its own.
Players to watch: While the main talk has been about
Florida's BCS title chances, the other national focus will be on
Arkansas RB Darren McFadden and his Heisman chase. While he
has no shot of beating out Ohio State QB Troy Smith, after Brady
Quinn and Notre Dame lost to USC, McFadden suddenly became the
fashionable number two choice after his breathtaking 182-yard, two
touchdown two-for-two passing day against LSU. If he has a 100-yard
game, cranks out one big "wow" run, and Arkansas wins, he'll finish
in the top three in the voting.
Sure, everyone knows McFadden, and most college fans know about
running mate Felix Jones, but name one Arkansas offensive
lineman? Tony Ugoh, Stephen Parker, Jonathan Luigs,
Robert Felton, and Zac Tubbs form the nation's best
offensive line paving the way for the nation's fourth best running
game and leading the country in sacks allowed giving up just eight.
This is a tight, veteran group with all seniors except for Felton, a
junior. If Arkansas wins, it'll be because this front five
dominated. However, Florida's defensive front isn't going to be
pushed around.
The Gators have used several different combinations on the defensive
line this year, and all seemed to work. This group has gotten a
decent push all season long into the backfield and has been a brick
wall against the run. Tackles Ray McDonald and Joe Cohen
were rocks against the run last week, while ends Jarvis Moss
and Steven Harris got consistent pressure on the Seminole
backfield. This group doesn't have to stop the Hog running game
cold, but it can't allow gaping holes and needs to force Hog QB
Casey Dick to hurry his passes.
Arkansas
will win if...
the passing game isn't abysmal.
Dick was awful against LSU last week unable to make even the most
average of throws while doing nothing in crunch time finishing with
62 yards, a touchdown pass and an interception completing five of 20
passes. Florida's secondary can be beaten, and Dick has to at least
provide a hint of a passing threat or the Gator linebackers and
safeties will eat the running game alive. In wins over Auburn, South
Carolina and Tennessee, the passing game was ultra-efficient, but
the Gamecock game got close because of two interceptions. Arkansas
almost lost to Alabama partly because Mitch Mustain threw three
picks. Hog quarterbacks threw three interceptions in the blowout
loss to USC. If Dick and/or Mustain can limit the picks to one at
most and complete around 60% of their passes, Arkansas will win.
Florida will win if... it doesn't panic when McFadden
or Jones hits the inevitable home run, and if it doesn't pull a
Kansas State and start watching the scoreboard. The 1998 Wildcats
were locked in a three-way battle with Tennessee and UCLA for the
two national title spots,
so when the Bruins lost to Miami 49-45, KSU fans and players started
to celebrate midway through the Big 12 title game knowing that a
spot in the championship was assured with a win. They lost focus and
Texas A&M came back to win a thriller. Florida will know what its
BCS Championship potential might be late in the third quarter.
Arkansas has the ability to strike any time from anywhere on the
field, so the Gators have to be focused for the entire game. The Hog
ground attack, and WR Marcus Monk, are too good to keep down the
entire game, so when they do get a score and the momentum shifts,
the Gators have to go on a march and get it right back. A veteran
quarterback like Chris Leak can make that happen.
What will happen: Rule number one in a big championship/bowl
type of game: go with the team with the veteran quarterback.
Sometimes rules are made to be broken. Even though Leak deserves to
go out with an SEC championship after a tumultuous career, the
Arkansas running game will be too much to overcome with the line
cranking out one of its best games of the season. Florida will have
its moments of explosion, but the offense won't be consistent enough
to keep up with the Hog attack that'll crank out 250 yards. Even
though Dick won't be great, he'll connect with Marcus Monk on two
game-changing plays to turn the momentum. The Gators will miss three
field goals.
Line: Florida -3 ... CFN Prediction:
Arkansas
24 ... Florida 21
2005 SEC Championship
Georgia 34 ... LSU 14
D.J. Shockley threw two perfect strikes to Sean Bailey for touchdown
passes from 45 and 29 yards out for a 14-0 lead, and he ran for a
seven-yard score capitalizing on a blocked punt from Bryan McClendon.
The Dawgs only managed 250 yards of total offense, but the defense held
LSU to 230 only allowing a one-yard JaMarcus Russell touchdown run
before Dwayne Bowe caught a 19-yard touchdown pass late in the fourth
after the outcome had been decided. Russell was knocked out of the game
with an injured shoulder.
Player of the game: Georgia QB D.J. Shockley
completed six of 12 passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns and ran
seven times for ten yards and a touchdown.
Stat Leaders: LSU - Passing:
JaMarcus Russell, 11-19, 120 yds, 1 INT
Rushing: Shyrone Carey, 10-43
Receiving: Dwayne Bowe, 5-74, 1 TD
Georgia - Passing: D.J. Shockley, 6-12,
112 yds, 2 TD
Rushing: Thomas Brown, 14-62. Receiving: Sean
Bailey, 2-74, 2 TD