Oregon (7-5) vs. BYU (10-2)
Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ESPN
Get
Tickets for the Las Vegas Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Las Vegas Bowl Player
Profile: BYU QB John Beck, team bowl history and more
Things never work out the way you'd like
them to, but this solid matchup between a slightly disappointing,
middle-of-the-pack Pac 10 team and the Mountain West champion should
be among the best and more competitive of the pre-2007 bowls.
Can Oregon bounce back after falling off the map over the final
three weeks of the season? Can BYU not just win, but show how good
it really is by blowing away a name team in front of a national
audience? If bowl games are often about discovery and used as a
proving grown to see just how far teams have come, this is as big as
it gets for the rediscovery of two strong programs.
In his second year at the helm, BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall has
reached his goal of returning the glory to the one-time powerhouse
that no languishes in Mountain West obscurity. The Cougars were just
this close to an undefeated season losing on a miraculous
kick from Arizona's Nick Folk to open the season and dropping a
classic double-overtime heartbreaker to Boston College two weeks
later. Things quickly came together as the veteran team went on a
fantastic, dominant run winning straight and taking the Mountain
West title with stunning ease.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Oregon |
BYU |
|
Total Offense |
|
8th 436.42 ypg |
5th 458.58 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
30th 303.25 ypg |
51st 324.08 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
17th 31.25 ppg |
6th 36.67 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
84th 25.58 ppg |
16th 15.25 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
11th 189.17 ypg |
54th 139.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
74th 146.58 ypg |
35th 115.75 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
21st 247.25 ypg |
4th 319.25 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
10th 156.67 ypg |
73rd 208.33 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
107th -0.83 |
4th 1.17 |
|
Oregon
Stanford
W 48-10
at Fresno St
W 31-24
Oklahoma W 34-33
at Ariz St W 48-13
at California L 45-24
UCLA
W 30-20
at Wash St
L 34-23
Portland St
W 55-12
Washington
W 34-14
at USC L 35-10
Arizona
L 37-10
at Oregon St L 30-28 |
BYU
at Arizona L 16-13
Tulsa
W 49-24
at BC L 30-23 2OT
Utah State
W 38-0
at TCU W 31-17
SDSU
W 47-17
UNLV
W 52-7
at A Force
W 33-14
at Col St
W 24-3
Wyoming
W 55-7
N Mexico
W 42-17
at Utah W 33-31 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
O |
5
highest
1 lowest |
Y |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
4.5 |
RBs |
4 |
|
4 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Oregon had two
seasons. The first saw a 5-1 start with a controversial win over
Oklahoma that appears to have set back Big 12-Pac 10 relations to an
Iran-U.S. level, and a 45-24 loss to California that showed just how
far the young team needed to go before it could challenge for the
Pac 10 title. Even so, the inexperienced but talented team
occasionally showed flashes of brilliance and skill with the
Pac-10's most productive offense and a solid, but inconsistent, pass
defense. Coming off a disappointing end to a great 2005 season with
a loss to Oklahoma the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks are hoping for the
reverse effect this season with a win over the Cougars being used as
a launching pad to what has the potential to be a great 2007.
Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Jaison Williams, and two promising,
yet inconsistent, quarterbacking options in Dennis Dixon and Brady
Leaf form the foundation for what should be one of the nation's best
offenses over the next few seasons. As is, the Duck attack finished
eight in the nation averaging 436 yards per game, but it hit a wall
late in the year and struggled thanks to turnovers, turnovers and
more turnovers giving it away ten times over the final three games.
On the flip side, BYU lost the ball only 11 times all season long
and spent a season capitalizing on everyone else's mistakes. This is
a rock-solid Cougar team from top to bottom led by QB John Beck, who
would've been in the Heisman race had anyone ever seen him play on a
consistent basis. The offense finished fifth in the nation, the
defense and special teams were good enough to not be a liability.
But while the team is shooting for an 11-win season and hoping to
use this as a springboard to more national attention. You'll have to
forgive Cougar fans if they're still slightly skeptical; they've
been burned before.
Former head coach Gary Crowton took the Cougars to a 12-0 record in
2001 before the team went into the tank over the final two games and
into a mediocre abyss over the following three seasons. Now Crowton
is on the other side as the Oregon offensive coordinator. He brought
in many of the current Cougars and knows how good they are. Will it
matter? Probably not, but it'll certainly be an interesting
storyline in one of the early bowl games worth paying very close
attention to.
Players to watch: It's too late for everyone to get on board
the bandwagon considering John Beck's great career has one
more game left in it, but he's still worth the price of admission.
Always a bomber with 10,646 career yards and 77 touchdowns, he
became more efficient and more effective in his senior season
throwing for 3,510 yards and 30 scores with just six picks.
Unflappable and in total command of the offense, he completed 70% of
his throws and made all the right decisions over the second half of
the season.
While Beck is a strength for BYU, the Oregon quarterback situation
is far from settled with Brady Leaf and Dennis Dixon
each in the mix to try to get back the offensive consistency. The
overall production and yards are there, but one of them has to grow
into the role, and most importantly, stop making mistakes.
Dixon appeared to be on the verge of growing into Pac 10 stardom
over after a strong first four games, and then he threw three picks
in the loss to California and the coaching staff limited his
attempts with Leaf getting more into the fold. An ugly three
interception day in the loss to Arizona meant Dixon was out and Leaf
was in against Oregon State in the regular season finale, but that
doesn't mean he'll go the entire way against BYU. This game should
go a long way to see who'll be the main man in charge in 2007.
Whoever's throwing the ball has one of the Pac 10's best kept
secrets to throw to in sophomore WR Jaison Williams.
Overshadowed by USC's tandem of Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, as
well as Cal's DeSean Jackson, Williams led the Pac 10 in receptions
and finished second in receiving yards per game despite being out
against Arizona with a broken back. Why the lack of love? He didn't
score enough catching only one touchdown pass over the final seven
games of Oregon's season. He'll have to play a big role if the Ducks
are going to keep pace in the shootout.
Oregon
will win if... as alluded to before, it wins the turnover
battle. BYU turned it over three times in the loss to Boston
College, twice in the loss to Arizona, and six times in the other
ten games combined. Oregon has been fine when it hangs on to the
ball, so as long as the offensive marches aren't stopped by giving
the ball up, scoring won't be an issue. Defensively, the Ducks have
to get consistent pressure on Beck. He's mobile enough to buy
himself time, but he can't be allowed to take his time to find the
second and third receivers. The Oregon secondary is more than strong
enough to hang one-on-one with the Cougar receivers, and the
linebackers are quick enough to stay with top option, tight end
Jonny Harline.
BYU will win if... it gets the ground game
going. Lost from Beck's great season has been the 1-2 punch of
Curtis Brown and Fui Vakapuna, who've combined to provide good
balance all season long. The more the linebackers have to worry
about the Cougar ground game, the less they'll focus on Beck and his
midrange passer. It's no coincidence that BYU's five worst rushing
games this year turned into two losses and the three relatively
close calls, while the blowouts came when the offense cranked out
big yards on the ground. Oregon's run defense can be pushed around a
little bit.
What will happen: BYU will have the fans, the momentum, the
experience and the excitement, but Oregon will be rested, healthy,
and with something to prove. The Ducks have the offense to hang with
the Cougars in what should be a whoever-has-the-ball-last shootout.
Beck will get his 300+ yards, but Jonathan Stewart's 150-yard
rushing day will turn out to be more effective.
Line: BYU -5 ... CFN Prediction:
Oregon 40
... BYU 38
Las Vegas Bowl Player
Profile: BYU QB John Beck, team bowl history and more