South Florida (8-4) vs. East Carolina (7-5)
Dec. 23rd 1 p.m.
ESPN2
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Both
programs are looking at this game as a chance to move forward. In
the second year under head coach Skip Holtz, ECU wants to be back at
the level it was at a few years ago when it was one of the
Conference USA big boys and bowl games were a given. South Florida
wants to show that it truly is a player in a BCS conference and is
at the level to slap away a non-BCS conference team with ease.
Fine, so the PapaJohns.com Bowl isn't exactly the Granddaddy of them
all, but for East Carolina and USF, this might as well be the Rose
Bowl. Each are emerging as bigger stars and each appears to be on
the verge of bigger and better things. As much as any other bowl
game, this is a minor one that the teams will use as a springboard.
The last time East Carolina made a post-season appearance was a
memorable one with Marshall's Byron Leftwich beating future
Jacksonville Jaguar teammate David Garrard in a 64-61 classic GMAC
Bowl to send the Pirate program into a downward spiral it's just now
pulling up from. That loss was part of a three-game losing streak to
end the 2001 season as part of an ugly 12-37 run until this season.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
South
Florida |
East
Carolina |
|
Total Offense |
|
41st 367.92 ypg |
53rd 350.75 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
24th 296.92 ypg |
60th 332.92 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
67th 22.92 ppg |
69th 22.75 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
24th 17.75 ppg |
47th 20.50 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
50th 143.17 ypg |
81st 120.67 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
41st 120.33 ypg |
72nd 144.25 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
39th 224.75 ypg |
32nd 230.08 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
26th 176.58 ypg |
43rd
188.67 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
85th -0.42 |
32nd
0.42 |
|
South
Florida
McNeese St W
41-10
FIU
W 21-20
at UCF
W 24-17
at Kansas L 13-7
Rutgers
L 22-20
Connecticut
W 38-16
at N Car W 37-20
at Cincinnati
L 23-6
Pitt
W 22-12
Syracuse
W 27-10
at Louisville L 31-8
at West Va W 24-19 |
East Carolina
at Navy L 28-23
at UAB L 17-12
Memphis W 35-20
W Virginia L 27-10
Virginia W 31-21
Tulsa L 31-10
SMU W 38-21
at S Miss W 20-17 OT
at UCF W 23-10
Marshall W 33-20
at Rice L 18-17
at NC State W 21-16 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
USF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
ECU |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
2.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
4.5 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
South Florida went to its first bowl ever last year losing to NC
State 14-0 in the Meineke Car Car Bowl, but under head coach Jim
Leavitt, appears ready to make regular appearances in the
post-season. While Leavitt has led the program to better records,
this might be his best team going 8-4 highlighted by wins over West
Virginia and Pitt proving that this is a growing Big East power.
The Bulls
like to rely on its tough defense, experienced secondary, and the
good decision-making ability of QB Matt Grothe, and while the
Pirates don't have the same run defense as USF and tend to use the
running backs a bit more, they also have a tough group of defensive
backs and live and die offensively with their quarterback.
ECU started off the season appearing to be one of Conference USA's
bigger disappointments with a 1-4 start including a loss to UAB
which all but ended any title hopes before they could even begin. A
stunning 31-21 win over Virginia appeared to turn the season around,
but things came quickly crashing back to earth with a blowout home
loss to Tulsa.
At 2-5 and the season going nowhere, the Pirates went on a run
winning five of their last six games with the only loss coming in a
18-17 thriller to Rice. Along the way, they beat eventual Conference
USA champion Southern Miss in overtime and ended the Chuck Amato era
at NC State with a 21-16 win. Most impressively, they pulled off the
drive to the PapaJohns.com Bowl mostly on the road.
South Florida struggled a bit with its consistency as the offense
looked to find its identity, and Grothe had to go through the peaks
and valleys of his inexperience. The offense clicked against UConn
and North Carolina, but couldn't get anything going in losses to
Cincinnati and Louisville. But just when it seemed like the season
would be nothing special, the Bulls pulled off a 24-19 win over West
Virginia to provide a signature moment. Now they're looking to close
out with a first ever bowl win to try get the program more and more
on the national radar.
Players to watch: While the Pirates need a big game out of
QB James Pinkney to win, they also like to mix it up a bit
and get a little balance with senior Brandon Fractious
and the running game. While not an elite runner by any stretch,
Fractious is tough and has a nice burst turning into a productive
playmaker over the second half of the season. When he's running
well, ECU usually wins since it takes the pressure off Pinkney,
who's not exactly stingy when it comes to ball security.
Looking to keep Fractious in check, and keep Pinkney from running
out of the pocket, will be a strong USF defensive front led by
linebackers Stephen Nicholas and Ben Moffitt, who are
undersized, but quick, experienced, and rock-solid sure tacklers.
While he hasn't been used as a pass rusher as much as he has in the
past, Nicholas can get into the backfield and is a consistent
playmaker behind the line of scrimmage. He has first day draft pick
potential and can boost his stock up big-time with a splashy final
performance.
In the end, it'll come down to the two quarterbacks. The one who
plays better will get the win; it's that simple. Pinkney has a live
arm and can move, but he tends to force plays that aren't there and
got on a bad run of interceptions over the second half of the season
throwing two in three of the final five games. The offense relied on
him a bit too much over the first half of the season and didn't
start to roll, and the team didn't start to win, until there was
more balance, but with the USF run defense almost certain to keep
Fractious, Chris Johnson, and the Bull ground game under
wraps, Pinkney will have to come up with one of his better games.
Matt Grothe is more of a runner than Pinkney with 607 yards
and nine touchdowns on the season, but that doesn't mean he can't
throw. The redshirt freshman completed 64% of his passes with 14
touchdowns along with 14 interceptions including six in the final
four games, but he's at his best when he's running effectively.
Grothe only went three games this year without throwing a pick, and
the Bulls won those with ease.
East Carolina
will win if...
it forces the Bulls to go on long
drives. Helped by WR Ean Randolph, this can be an explosive South
Florida offense, but it's not the type that's great at going on
long, sustained drives on a consistent basis. It's fantastic at
capitalizing on momentum and feeding off the energy from the
defense, so if ECU can win the turnover battle and be ahead in the
field position game, it should be in good shape. It would also help
if there's a chill in the air. USF
is a warm weather team that tends to fold up when the thermometer
dips below 40, so the Birmingham, Alabama weather might play a big
role.
South Florida will win if... it makes East
Carolina one-dimensional. Over the first half of the season, ECU was
0-3 when it ran for fewer than 100 yards and lost to Rice in late
November when it ran for 218 but threw for 83. While there are
exceptions, like wins over Marshall and SMU when all they did was
throw, the Pirates need to be balanced to be fully effective. The
passing game is good, but it's not so good that it'll light up the
solid South Florida secondary when under the pressure of George
Selvie and the effective USF pass rush.
What will happen: South Florida's defense will win the game.
The Bulls will force three key turnovers that'll turn the momentum,
and the offense will get just enough early to get up and stay there.
ECU won't be able to get its ground attack going meaning Pinkney
will have to force things over the second half and will press too
much. That'll be exactly what Trae Williams and the Bull secondary
will be looking for.
Line: South Florida -3.5 ... CFN Prediction:
South
Florida 23 ... East Carolina 13