Hawaii (10-3) vs. Arizona State (7-5)
Dec. 24,
8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Player Profile: Hawaii WR Davone Bess, team bowl history and more
If you life somewhere east of the Rocky
Mountains, or if you missed Hawaii's early season game against
Alabama, chances are you haven't seen Colt Brennan and the Warrior
offense in action. Simply put, it's the real deal, and it's a
must-see just to see what an easy 400-yard passing day looks like.
It's Hawaii, it's Arizona State, in the final game of the Dirk
Koetter coaching era, and it's in Honolulu. There might be other
early bowl games that turn out to be better, and there might be some
that'll be better played, but for sheer eye-candy on Christmas Eve,
this is one to ditch family Christmas carol time for.
Koetter is now dancing with someone else's date as Dennis Erickson,
the former Idaho/Oregon State/Miami/San Francisco 49er/Seattle
Seahawk/Idaho coach,
will take over as soon as the final whistle blows. Known as an
offensive wizard before coming to Tempe, and with big-time offensive
coordinator jobs out there for the taking, it'll be interesting to
see if Koetter pulls out all his tricks to make this the track meet
that offensive football fans are drooling for.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Arizona State |
Hawaii |
|
Total Offense |
|
43rd 365.33 ypg |
1st 549.92 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
27th 298.5 ypg |
93rd 376.77 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
42nd 27 ppg |
1st 47.31 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
68th 23.75 ppg |
70th 24.08 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
33rd 167.17 ypg |
86th 117.69 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
36th 116.58 ypg |
53rd 131.15 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
59th 198.17 ypg |
1st 432.23 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
34th 181.92 ypg |
109th 245.62 |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
67th -0.08 |
52nd 0.08 |
|
Arizona State
N Arizona
W 35-14
Nevada
W 52-21
at Colorado
W 21-3
at California L 49-21
Oregon
L 48-13
at USC L 28-21
Stanford
W 38-3
at Wash
W 26-23OT
at Oreg St L 44-10
Wash St
W 47-14
UCLA
L 24-12
at Arizona W 28-14 |
Hawaii
at Alabama L 25-17
UNLV
W 42-13
at Boise St L 41-34
E Illinois
W 44-9
Nevada
W 41-34
at Fres St W 68-37
at NMSU
W 49-30
Idaho
W 68-10
at Utah St
W 63-10
La Tech
W 61-17
SJSU
W 54-17
Purdue W 42-35
Oregon St
L 35-32 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
ASU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
H |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
5 |
|
2.5 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
2.5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
3 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
The demise of
the high expectations for the Sun Devils started just before the
season opener when Koetter chose to go with Sam Keller at
quarterback, reversed decision and went with Rudy Carpenter, and
then lost Keller to Nebraska. Carpenter pressed too much, there
wasn't a steady receiver to hit the home runs like Derek Hagan did
in 2005, and after a 3-0 start, ASU lost three straight Pac 10 games
and was out of the race before it could begin.
While the Sun Devils closed out with a nice win over Arizona, and
blew away Washington State in mid-November, they only went 1-5
against bowl teams with the lone victory coming over Nevada. Even
after all the problems, disappointments, and the firing of Koetter,
ASU can finish with eight wins for just the third time in eight
years.
On the other side, Hawaii is shooting for its first 11-win season
since 1992 highlighted by the nation's number one offense averaging
550 yards per game, number one scoring offense averaging 47.31 yards
per game, and passing offense averaging 432 yards per outing. This
isn't a gimmick attack; this is a dangerous passing attack with a
thunderously effective running game that isn't just an afterthought.
As good as the Warriors are, there's still a hint of skepticism on a
national scale. Part of it comes from no one actually seeing how
good they are, and part of it comes from blowing up several bad
teams. Even thought they beat bowl-bound Purdue, San Jose State and
Nevada, and battled Boise State and Alabama in close losses, the
respect isn't there. Who cares? This is the most fun team to watch
in college football.
If Arizona State's passing game gets going, 800 passing yards
between the two teams is a decent goal with points and big plays
flying all over the place. This bowl won't prove anything, it won't
change the college football world, and there might not be much to
take from it no matter what happens. It'll just be a wild game.
Merry Christmas.
Players to watch: Can Rudy Carpenter match Colt
Brennan punch for punch? A far cry from last year when he led
the nation in passing efficiency, Carpenter struggled early on
throwing nine interceptions in the first five games bottoming out
with a 6-of-19, 33-yard day in a 48-13 loss to Oregon. He only threw
for over three yards twice this year, and while he stepped up his
play over the second half of the season, he hasn't been consistent.
To have a shot, Carpenter has to bomb away and complete close to 65%
of his passes.
As good as you think Brennan might be after looking at the numbers
(373 of 517 for 4,990 yards and 53 touchdowns and 11interceptions
with five rushing touchdowns), he's been even better. He's not Timmy
Chang; he's a top 50 NFL draft pick with mobility, a good arm, but
not a oh-my-goodness one, and great decision making ability. Since
coming to Hawaii he has thrown 88 touchdowns in the last two years
throwing for over 300 yards in 21 of 25 career games with 11
400-yard games and a 515-yard, seven touchdown performance last year
against New Mexico State.
While the Hawaii passing game gets all the headlines, monster RB
Nate Ilaoa is an All-WAC caliber playmaker who's almost
impossible to get down when he gets a head of steam. At 5-9 and
somewhere between 245 and 260 pounds depending on the day, he's a
good runner and a nightmare when he catches the ball in open space.
He ran for 893 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per carry, with 13
touchdowns and caught 63 passes for 781 yards and five scores.
Arizona State
will win if...
get Carpenter hot from throw one
against the nation's 109th ranked pass defense. Forget about
controlling the tempo with the running game. Forget about trying to
slow down Hawaii. Brennan will throw for 400 yards and four
touchdowns; accept it and deal. Carpenter was in a groove early
against Washington State and rolled for 339 yards and three
touchdowns and got hot against Nevada and threw five touchdowns
passes. This isn't the time to find offensive balance. In Koetter's
last game, it's time to bomb away. If Carpenter isn't throwing well,
the Sun Devils might as well hit the beach.
Hawaii will win if... it gets the pass rush
rolling. Part of Carpenter's problem this year was his view; he
spent most of his time on his back with the Sun Devil line allowing
33 sacks. Hawaii's All-WAC defensive linemen Melila Purcell and
Ikaika Alama-Francis should be able to generate consistent pressure
and should be able to force Carpenter to hurry his throws. It's not
like Carpenter is going to run for big yards, and he's not at his
best throwing on the move, so if Jerry Glanville's defense is able
to constantly bother him, the Sun Devils aren't going to be able
keep up the offensive pace.
What will happen: Shootout, shootout, shootout. Arizona State
will get its shots in and has a good enough defense, with a strong
enough pass rush, to keep Hawaii from running away with the game,
but it doesn't have enough overall offensive firepower to get the
job done. Brennan will need a late scoring drive to finally put ASU
away, and unlike the Oregon State game, he's not going to short arm
his final throw. Expect a fantastic game that might be the best of
the bowl season.
Line: Hawaii -8.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Hawaii 38
... Arizona State 31
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Player Profile: Hawaii WR Davone Bess, team bowl history and more